Summer Labour brings no profit: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (16th August 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th August 2015 

Tomorrow sees another poll in the monthly series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls. There are mixed messages for the government parties in this opinion poll. After a series of poor results in the July opinion polls, Fine Gael are seen to gain some notable ground in this poll, but Labour lose two percentage points in terms of their estimated support levels/ The notable trend here marks a reversal of the patterns evident in last month’s Behaviour & Attitudes poll, with the Independents and Others grouping losing ground in this poll to Fine Gael and the two largest Opposition parties. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 4%) (Green Party 2% (up 1%), Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%)My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 42 (including Green Party 1). 

Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Dail constituency support estimates: Combining 2014 Local Election results and Opinion Poll-generated support estimates

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th August 2015

As you may know, I try to regularly carry out what I term a constituency-level analysis of opinion poll figures, as and when these are released, to try and decipher what these might mean in terms of potential Dail seat levels for the different political parties and groupings. In order to do so, I calculate constituency support estimates for the different parties and groupings, in which the extent of the support changes since the 2011 General Election suggested by a specific opinion poll are applied to all Dail constituencies. There is a logic in this, given that the geography of support associated with different political parties tends to be relatively similar at different election contests. In other words, political parties will tend to usually do especially well in certain regions and less well in others. For instance, Fine Gael support tends to be strongest in rural areas and middle class urban areas, but relatively weak in the more working class areas. At the level of individual constituencies, however, levels of support change can vary noticeably for various reasons (which will be discussed later) and as such – as noted in the poll analyses posts – these Dail constituency support estimates should not be viewed as accurate predictions of party support levels in individual constituencies. Continue reading

Posted in General Election, Local Elections 2014, opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Autumnal Blues for Fine Gael?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls (2nd August 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st August 2015 

Sunday sees the publication of a new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll. Following a series of improving fortunes in opinion polls for the party in the first half of 2015, Fine Gael lose some significant grouping in this poll – reflecting a trend that has been evident in a number of more recent polls too. This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Independents and Others 25% (up 4%), Fine Gael 24% (down 5%), Fianna Fail 23% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 37.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Swings and Roundabouts: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls (26th July 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th July 2015 

Last month’s Red C opinion poll saw gains for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at the expense of Labour and Sinn Fein, but these two parties lose ground in this month’s poll to the Independent and Others grouping, with this grouping making significant gains in a Red C poll for the second month in a row. Indeed, the Independents and Others grouping have gained nine percentage points since the May Red C opinion poll. Labour regain some ground in this month’s poll, with their support levels increasing by one percentage point. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 31% (up 4%), Fine Gael 25% (down 3%),  Fianna Fail 18% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 18% (NC),Labour Party 8% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 51.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 1 Comment

Independents and Others surge anew: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (19th July 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th July 2015 

Tomorrow sees the latest in monthly series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls. The notable trend here sees some notable gains for the Independents and Others grouping, mainly at the expense of the expense of the two largest Opposition parties. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Independents and Others 32% (up 4%), Fine Gael 24% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 51.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 1 Comment

Good weekend for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C and Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls (28th June 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th June 2015 

Yesterday (Sunday) saw the publication of two new opinion polls; including the latest in monthly series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls, while a new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll was also published. Following a good opinion poll for the party last week, Fianna Fail also gained some ground in these two opinion polls. Fine Gael support levels remain at a notably higher level than the low point reached by the party in the December 2014 opinion polls, while Fine Gael also gained some ground in the Millward Brown poll. The Independent and Others grouping make significant gains in the Red C poll, mainly at the expense of Sinn Fein and Labour. The Independents and Others grouping did lose some support, however, in the Millward Brown poll, with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both gaining at the expense of Sinn Fein and Labour losses in this instance. Indeed, this was the first opinion poll since the Millward Brown poll of 20th April 2014 in which the combined Fine Gael and Fianna Fail support levels exceeded the 50% level. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 28% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 5%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (down 3%),Labour Party 7% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 3, Independents and Others 40. This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 23% (up 4%), Independents and Others 21% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 3%),Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 57, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 30.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 1 Comment

Poll Toppers at the 2014 Local (City and County Council) Elections

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th June 2015

In the lead up to, and in the immediate aftermath of, the 2011 General Election, I produced a post reviewing the poll toppers in each of the different constituencies at the 2007 General Election and their subsequent fate at the 2011 contest. This found that over half of the TDs who had topped the poll in their constituencies in 2007 subsequently were not holding seats after the 2011 contest: ten of these TDs opted to retire from politics ahead of the general election while a further twelve of these poll-topping TDs lost their seats at this contest.

Figure 1: The fates of the 2007 General Election poll toppers at the 2011 General Election.

Against that, a study of the 171 current/former City and County Councillors, who had topped the poll in their electoral areas at the 2009 City and County Council elections, found that an impressive number of these had gone on subsequently to win seats at the 2011 General Election (or indeed at a subsequent by-election (or rather one held on the same day, as in the case of Maureen O’Sullivan). Thirty one of these poll-toppers (18.7%) would win seats at the Dail election in 2011 while a further five (2.9%) would win seats in Seanad Eireann. Thus the 2009 poll toppers group would account for just under 19 per cent of the membership of the new Dail after the February 2011 contest (and well over one-third of the new members ).

Could the candidates who topped the poll in the 137 different electoral areas at the 2014 City and County Council elections enjoy a similar level of success at the upcoming general election? Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Candidates Local Elections 2014, local elections, Local Elections 2014, Poll toppers | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment