How low can it go for the three main parties? Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (22nd November 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (22nd November 2014) suggests that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water have acted mainly to the advantage of the Independents and Others grouping and also Sinn Fein, while the government parties experience another drop in their support levels. Fine Gael sees a four percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no change in the Labour Party poll figures. Having edged ahead of Fine Gael in the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, the improvement in Sinn Fein support levels in this poll leaves them tied with Fine Gael as the most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following on the five percentage point gain made by this grouping in the October 24th poll following the by-election wins of early October, the Independents and Others grouping makes a further three percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a much higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Independents and Others 27% (up 1%), Fine Gael 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 35, Labour Party 5, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 45.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Their Day Has Come – Sinn Fein’s surge: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll (2nd November 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd November 2014 

The new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (2nd November 2014), published on the day after large numbers of people take to the streets in protest against water charges, sees Sinn Fein move ahead of Fine Gael. Sinn Fein support levels increase by four percentage points relative to the previous such poll, while combined support levels for the government parties fall by five percentage points and Fianna Fail’s support level drops by one percentage point. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Sinn Fein 26% (up 4%), Fine Gael 22% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 24% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 44, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 35.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Independents Day again: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (26th October 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (26th October 2014) suggests that the recent Budget has not amounted to any serious political gains for the government parties, a trend mirrored in the very similar support trends published in the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of the same day. Fine Gael sees a two percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no movement in the Labour Party poll figures. Sinn Fein sees a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, but they still remain as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following the by-election wins of earlier in the month, the Independents and Others grouping makes a notable five percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 41. (The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (down 5%), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 25% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 39.) Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Officially declared candidates for the 2015/2016 General Election

Adrian Kavanagh – First posted on 22nd October 2014, with post updated as and when new candidates are selected/declared

The next general election is literally a matter of months away at this stage, with it scheduled to take place at any stage between now and March 2016, although an Autumn/Winter 2015 date could be a highly likely one in the presumption that the parties making up the present government might find it difficult to agree on a Budget so close to a potential general election date.  In any case, selection conventions for different political parties are likely to commence in the Autumn/Winter of 2014, while independent candidates (both incumbent and non-incumbent) will be declaring their intention to contest the election. As and when these selections/declarations take place, I will be adding new candidate names to this list, in the expectation that names will continue to be added to this list up to the official closing date for nominations for the next general election contest. Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Election boundaries, First-time candidates, General Election | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mixed fortunes for the Opposition parties! Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ispos MRBI opinion poll (9th October 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th October 2014 

The results of the latest in the series of The Irish Times-Ispos MRBI polls was published today and this has been largely in line with those of the preceding Red C and Millward Brown polls, but this obviously does convey especially good news for Sinn Fein. As the Ispos MRBI polls tend to be decidedly less frequent that those of other polling companies, the changing support trends in this poll might be viewed as being more reflective of the over-riding trends over the past few months (and especially since the Local and European election contests). The latest Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 24% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 5%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 41, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 32. Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

By-election winners and losers, 1980-2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th October 2014

Reviewing the past three decades of by-election results shows that government parties have tended to fare poorly in by-election contests (although three of the last four by-elections have been won by government parties), but does certain parties or groupings tend to do especially well/poorly in these? A review of by-election winners since 1980 shows that:

Continue reading

Posted in by-election, Candidates | Tagged | 2 Comments

Political Reform in Ireland and My Personal Electoral and Political Reform Agenda

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th September 2014

As this website reached the 500,000 views mark over the weekend, I have decided to make this by (again) revisiting my earlier post on what I would consider my political reform priorities to be. At this point in time, some aspects of the government’s political reform agenda have been achieved over the past four years, including changes to political funding legislation, the implementation of a six-month limit for the holding of by-election contests, the introduction of a gender quota for the next general election and amendments in relation to representation levels and electoral boundaries relating to general and local elections. But to once again re-tread a well-trodden phrase, this record very much amounts to a case of something done but a lot more to be done, which is rather disappointing given that there was a significant opportunity space in play to bring in political reform measures, especially at the start of the government’s term in office.  Continue reading

Posted in Gender, New Irish, Political Reform, Young candidates | Leave a comment