Government parties continue to regain ground: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (29th March 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2015 

Following Thursday’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll comes the latest in the series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls. In this poll, Fine Gael and Labour yet again are seen to make further gains, with the combined support levels now commanded by these parties at the highest level in months and with Labour now reaching the crucial 10% support level. By contrast, there is a drop of four percentage points in Sinn Fein support levels since the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. This Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 2%), Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 17% (down 4%), Labour Party 10% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 11, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading

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Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th March 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th March 2015 

Nearly two weeks after the last series of Red CMillward Brown and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls, the first Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll of 2015 continues the trend of improving fortunes for the government parties, although the combined level of support being commanded by Fine Gael and Labour is some percentage points lower than that recorded by these parties in the Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes polls. This new poll offers more good news for Sinn Fein while support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat. Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll and other recent polls, especially as this Ipsos MRBI poll points to a notable drop in support levels for that party since the last such poll in late 2014. This Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 4%), Fine Gael 24% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading

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And more good news for the Government Parties: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (15th March 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th March 2015 

Just like misery, opinion polls seem to like company. Hot on the heels of the latest Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll comes the latest in the series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls which offers further good news for the government parties. In this poll, both Fine Gael and Labour have gained an extra seven percentage points since the last Behaviour & Attitudes poll; a bigger gain that that seen with yesterday’s Red C poll, but of course the gap between Behaviour & Attitudes polls has been longer than that for the Red C polls. Support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat, as does support levels for Sinn Fein, though Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll, and most of the recent polls. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Independents and Others 27% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 8, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading

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Renua and Renewed – Better news for Government Parties: Constituency-level analysis of the Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll (13th March 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th March 2015 

It may well be Friday 13th, but the latest Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll has brought some good news for the government parties. On the same day that the new Renua Ireland party was launched, both Fine Gael and Labour have gained an extra two percentage points since the last Red C poll. Support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat, as does support levels for Sinn Fein, though Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll, and most of the recent polls. This Paddy Power -Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 22nd February 2015): Fine Gael 26% (up 2%), Independents and Others 25% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%), Green Party 2% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 30, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading

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“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose!”: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (22nd February 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st February 2015 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll is in line with most of the recent opinion polls, though it brings somewhat mixed results for the two government parties, while the Independents and Others grouping fares notable better than they did in last week’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll. The latest Sunday Business -Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 27% (up 1%), Fine Gael 24% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 2%), Green Party 3% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 31, Labour Party 4, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 42.  Continue reading

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Sinn Fein feeling the love on Valentines Day. Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll (15th February 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th February 2015 

The latest in the series of Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls brings slightly better news for the government parties but very good news for Sinn Fein, who find themselves estimated to be the political party with the highest support level in the state in yet another opinion poll. By contrast, the Independents and Others political grouping are seen to lose significant ground in this poll. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Sinn Fein 26% (up 5%%), Fine Gael 19% (down 5%), Independents and Others 23% (down 9%),  Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 45, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 33.  Continue reading

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Where could Fine Gael run female candidates at the next general election?

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2015

Following yesterday’s post on the situation with Fianna Fail, this post will consider the case of Fine Gael in relation to the candidate selection decisions that party needs to make in order to meet the requirements set by the gender quota legislation, which demands that at least 30% of all the candidates running for political parties at the next general election should be female candidates (and at least 30% should be male candidates!). Given that party’s success at the 2011 General Election and the large number of (mainly male) Fine Gael candidates elected at that contest, the target number of female candidates for this party needs to somewhat higher than the levels set for Fianna Fail in the Markievicz Commission Report. Based on my earlier analysis, the smallest number of female candidates that Fine Gael could run at the next general election in order to meet the requirements of the gender quota legislation probably falls within a range of between 25 and 32 female candidates. The final number is probably likely to fall somewhere towards the upper end of this range.

Given the large number of male Fine Gael incumbents, the gender quota legislation poses greater challenges for them than for any other party in the state. Against that, the party has the largest number of female representatives – at the European, national and local levels – in the Republic of Ireland. Fine Gael currently have two female MEPs (Deirdre Clune and Mairead McGuinness), 11 female TDs (highlighted in the list below by a *), 3 female Senators (highlighted in the list below by a ^) and 50 female City and County Councillors, amounting to 66 elected female representatives in all. Given that, the pool of potential Fine Gael female candidates is very strong, suggesting the party will have no difficulties in finding enough female candidates to achieve a target of selecting c.30 female candidates to contest the next general election. As the list below shows, Fine Gael have at least one potential candidate in each one of the 40 constituencies and indeed have a number of potential candidates in some of these constituencies. Ironically, given that female candidates generally tend to fare stronger in urban areas and particularly in Dublin, the only constituencies that the party does not, at present, appear to have potential female candidates are Dublin North-West and Dublin Central. Continue reading

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