Shortest day and longest night for Labour. Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes, Sunday Independent-Millward Brown and Sunday Business Post-Red C polls (21st December 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th December 2014 

Tomorrow’s Sunday Business-Red C, Sunday Independent-Millward Brown and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll results largely reflects the figures in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll from earlier this month and indeed most recent polls. Trends in these polls have suggested that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water have fuelled increased support levels for the Independents and Others grouping and Sinn Fein, with these gains being made mainly at the expense of the government parties. The results of these polls will produce perhaps the longest dark night of the soul for Labour, with both poll results showing this party losing a number of percentage points. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Independents and Others 30% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fine Gael 21% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 41, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 44. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Independents and Others 34% (up 10%), Fine Gael 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (down 5%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 2%), Labour Party 5% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 54. The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes  poll): Independents and Others 30% (NC), Fine Gael 24% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 5% (down 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 35, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 48.  Continue reading

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Independents Day again but disaster for the government parties. Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (4th December 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th December 2014 

There are obvious winners – the Independents and Others grouping – and losers – the government parties – in today’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll. Recent polls, including the latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (22nd November 2014), were suggesting that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water were politically benefiting the Independents and Others grouping and Sinn Fein at the expense of the government parties but these trends are particularly evident in today’s poll, which sees support levels for the government parties standing at thirty percentage points lower than the level of support won by these parties in the 2011 General Election. The Independents and Others grouping makes a highly significant nine percentage points gain in this poll relative to the previous such Ipsos-MRBI poll to leave it on a much higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties but also leave this grouping’s support levels as standing well above the combined support level for the government parties in this poll. The latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Independents and Others 32% (up 9%), Sinn Fein 22% (down 2%),  Fianna Fail 21% (up 1%), Fine Gael 19% (down 5%), Labour Party 6% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 32, Sinn Fein 36, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 52.  Continue reading

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Confirmed candidates for the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd December 2014 (regularly updated)

Following the appointment of Phil Hogan as Ireland’s EU Commissioner, a vacancy has arisen in the Carlow-Kilkenny constituency. A by-election for this constituency is likely to take place in Spring 2015 (unless a general election is called in the interim period). Candidates will be selected/be declaring themselves as candidates to contest this by-election in the months and weeks leading up to the official closing date for candidate nominations for this Dail by-election contest. This post aims to list all of the candidates that will be contesting this by-election. Continue reading

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How low can it go for the three main parties? Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (22nd November 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (22nd November 2014) suggests that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water have acted mainly to the advantage of the Independents and Others grouping and also Sinn Fein, while the government parties experience another drop in their support levels. Fine Gael sees a four percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no change in the Labour Party poll figures. Having edged ahead of Fine Gael in the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, the improvement in Sinn Fein support levels in this poll leaves them tied with Fine Gael as the most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following on the five percentage point gain made by this grouping in the October 24th poll following the by-election wins of early October, the Independents and Others grouping makes a further three percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a much higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Independents and Others 27% (up 1%), Fine Gael 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 35, Labour Party 5, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 45.  Continue reading

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Their Day Has Come – Sinn Fein’s surge: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll (2nd November 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd November 2014 

The new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (2nd November 2014), published on the day after large numbers of people take to the streets in protest against water charges, sees Sinn Fein move ahead of Fine Gael. Sinn Fein support levels increase by four percentage points relative to the previous such poll, while combined support levels for the government parties fall by five percentage points and Fianna Fail’s support level drops by one percentage point. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Sinn Fein 26% (up 4%), Fine Gael 22% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 24% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 44, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 35.  Continue reading

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Independents Day again: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (26th October 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (26th October 2014) suggests that the recent Budget has not amounted to any serious political gains for the government parties, a trend mirrored in the very similar support trends published in the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of the same day. Fine Gael sees a two percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no movement in the Labour Party poll figures. Sinn Fein sees a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, but they still remain as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following the by-election wins of earlier in the month, the Independents and Others grouping makes a notable five percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 41. (The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (down 5%), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 25% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 39.) Continue reading

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Officially declared candidates for the 2015/2016 General Election

Adrian Kavanagh – First posted on 22nd October 2014, with post updated as and when new candidates are selected/declared

The next general election is literally a matter of months away at this stage, with it scheduled to take place at any stage between now and March 2016, although an Autumn/Winter 2015 date could be a highly likely one in the presumption that the parties making up the present government might find it difficult to agree on a Budget so close to a potential general election date.  In any case, selection conventions for different political parties are likely to commence in the Autumn/Winter of 2014, while independent candidates (both incumbent and non-incumbent) will be declaring their intention to contest the election. As and when these selections/declarations take place, I will be adding new candidate names to this list, in the expectation that names will continue to be added to this list up to the official closing date for nominations for the next general election contest. Continue reading

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