Good news for Fine Gael and Sinn Fein: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (14th September 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th September 2014 (still being updated!)

The latest in the series of Red C polls has brought good news especially for Fine Gael and Sinn Fein. While Labour sees a one percentage point increase in the party’s poll levels, this is well off the levels of increase observed in last months’ Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll. There is a notable fall in support levels for the Independents and Others grouping, while Fianna Fail support levels remain unchanged at a disappointing 18% level although that party seems to perform better in actual electoral contests than they have been in opinion polls. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 28% (up 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (up 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 37, Labour Party 3, Independents and Others 30. Continue reading

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Fine Gael’s Top Ten Problem/Promising Constituencies ahead of the next General Election

With little more than a year (at most!) to go until the next general election and with the candidate selection convention process likely to commence in the coming months, I am going to start of a series of posts where I offer a geographical perspective on the state of play for the different parties at this point in time. Note – I stress at this point in time! I also throw in the proviso that changes in party support trends do not vary evenly across space – as past elections have shown, party support levels can hold up well or increase to higher degrees in some constituencies, relative to a national average, whereas changes in party support in other constituencies can prove to be highly disappointing in the context of those same national trends. As examples have shown in the past (many of which seem to be involve Westmeath!!!), candidates can often eschew what is an unpromising political climate for their party and hold their support levels and seats when national trends might suggest otherwise.

This first post will look at Fine Gael. Continue reading

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How would Scottish Independence impact on electoral competition in the rest of the United Kingdom?

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th August 2014 

A referendum on Scottish Independence is taking place on 18th September 2014. While the pre-contest opinion polls are suggesting that this will not be carried, it is worth remembering the range of Irish cases (2001 Nice Treaty, 2013 Seanad) in which a consistent lead in opinion polls did not translate into victory at the actual contest. Variations in turnout levels on referendum day across Scotland could well influence the result, as they did in the case of the aforementioned Irish referendum contests.

If Scotland was to vote for independence, what would be the impact on the rest of the United Kingdom in terms of what the composition of the House of Commons would look like in the absence of the 59 Scottish MPs? Continue reading

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CSO Population and Migration Estimates (April 2014): Some Political Perspectives

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th August 2014

The Central Statistics Office release its last issue in its annual estimation of population/migration figures within the state on 26th August, with the publication of Population and Migration Estimates April 2014. This latest publication estimates that the state population stood at 4,609,600 in April 2014. Continue reading

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“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-Local and European elections opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

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Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

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Political Reform in Ireland: My Personal Electoral and Political Reform Agenda

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th July 2014

Some aspects of the government’s political reform agenda have been achieved over the past three and a half years, including changes to political funding legislation, the implementation of a six-month limit for the holding of by-election contests, the introduction of a gender quota for the next general election and amendments in relation to representative levels and electoral boundaries relating to general and local elections. Continue reading

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