Independents Day again: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (26th October 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (26th October 2014) suggests that the recent Budget has not amounted to any serious political gains for the government parties, a trend mirrored in the very similar support trends published in the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of the same day. Fine Gael sees a two percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no movement in the Labour Party poll figures. Sinn Fein sees a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, but they still remain as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following the by-election wins of earlier in the month, the Independents and Others grouping makes a notable five percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 41. (The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (down 5%), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 25% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 39.) Continue reading

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Officially declared candidates for the 2015/2016 General Election

Adrian Kavanagh – First posted on 22nd October 2014, with post updated as and when new candidates are selected/declared

The next general election is literally a matter of months away at this stage, with it scheduled to take place at any stage between now and March 2016, although an Autumn/Winter 2015 date could be a highly likely one in the presumption that the parties making up the present government might find it difficult to agree on a Budget so close to a potential general election date.  In any case, selection conventions for different political parties are likely to commence in the Autumn/Winter of 2014, while independent candidates (both incumbent and non-incumbent) will be declaring their intention to contest the election. As and when these selections/declarations take place, I will be adding new candidate names to this list, in the expectation that names will continue to be added to this list up to the official closing date for nominations for the next general election contest. Continue reading

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Mixed fortunes for the Opposition parties! Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ispos MRBI opinion poll (9th October 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th October 2014 

The results of the latest in the series of The Irish Times-Ispos MRBI polls was published today and this has been largely in line with those of the preceding Red C and Millward Brown polls, but this obviously does convey especially good news for Sinn Fein. As the Ispos MRBI polls tend to be decidedly less frequent that those of other polling companies, the changing support trends in this poll might be viewed as being more reflective of the over-riding trends over the past few months (and especially since the Local and European election contests). The latest Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 24% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 5%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 41, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 32. Continue reading

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By-election winners and losers, 1980-2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th October 2014

Reviewing the past three decades of by-election results shows that government parties have tended to fare poorly in by-election contests (although three of the last four by-elections have been won by government parties), but does certain parties or groupings tend to do especially well/poorly in these? A review of by-election winners since 1980 shows that:

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Political Reform in Ireland and My Personal Electoral and Political Reform Agenda

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th September 2014

As this website reached the 500,000 views mark over the weekend, I have decided to make this by (again) revisiting my earlier post on what I would consider my political reform priorities to be. At this point in time, some aspects of the government’s political reform agenda have been achieved over the past four years, including changes to political funding legislation, the implementation of a six-month limit for the holding of by-election contests, the introduction of a gender quota for the next general election and amendments in relation to representation levels and electoral boundaries relating to general and local elections. But to once again re-tread a well-trodden phrase, this record very much amounts to a case of something done but a lot more to be done, which is rather disappointing given that there was a significant opportunity space in play to bring in political reform measures, especially at the start of the government’s term in office.  Continue reading

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Fianna Fail’s Top Ten Problem/Promising Constituencies ahead of the next General Election

This is the second in a series of posts where I offer a geographical perspective on the state of play for the different parties at this point in time. Note – I stress at this point in time! The different provisos outlined in the first post in this series on Fine Gael will also apply in the case of this second post, which will focus on Fianna Fáil. Continue reading

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TDs (31st Dáil Éireann) who will not be contesting the next general election

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd September 2014

Following on a similar post that was completed ahead of the 2011 General Election, this post will list all of the Dail deputies who have retired/stepped down during the lifetime of the current Dail or who have announced that they will not be contesting the next general election.
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