How would Scottish Independence impact on electoral competition in the rest of the United Kingdom?

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th August 2014 

A referendum on Scottish Independence is taking place on 18th September 2014. While the pre-contest opinion polls are suggesting that this will not be carried, it is worth remembering the range of Irish cases (2001 Nice Treaty, 2013 Seanad) in which a consistent lead in opinion polls did not translate into victory at the actual contest. Variations in turnout levels on referendum day across Scotland could well influence the result, as they did in the case of the aforementioned Irish referendum contests.

If Scotland was to vote for independence, what would be the impact on the rest of the United Kingdom in terms of what the composition of the House of Commons would look like in the absence of the 59 Scottish MPs? Continue reading

Posted in Elections outside of Ireland, Referendum elections, Scotland | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

CSO Population and Migration Estimates (April 2014): Some Political Perspectives

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th August 2014

The Central Statistics Office release its last issue in its annual estimation of population/migration figures within the state on 26th August, with the publication of Population and Migration Estimates April 2014. This latest publication estimates that the state population stood at 4,609,600 in April 2014. Continue reading

Posted in Census2011 definitive figures, Constituency Commission, New Irish | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-Local and European elections opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Political Reform in Ireland: My Personal Electoral and Political Reform Agenda

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th July 2014

Some aspects of the government’s political reform agenda have been achieved over the past three and a half years, including changes to political funding legislation, the implementation of a six-month limit for the holding of by-election contests, the introduction of a gender quota for the next general election and amendments in relation to representative levels and electoral boundaries relating to general and local elections. Continue reading

Posted in Gender, New Irish, Political Reform, Young candidates | Leave a comment

Confirmed candidates for the Roscommon-South Leitrim and Dublin South West by-elections

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th July 2014 (regularly updated)

Following the elections of Luke Ming Flanagan (Midlands-North-West) and Brian Hayes (Dublin) at May’s European Parliament elections, vacancies have arisen in their two Dail constituencies of Roscommon-South Leitrim and Dublin South-West respectively. These are likely to take place at some stage during Autumn 2014 – indeed The Irish Times reported on 29th August that these two contests were expected to take place on October 10th – but candidates are likely to be selected/declare themselves as candidates to contest these by-elections over the coming months in advance of these contests taking place. This post aims to list these candidates as and when they are officially confirmed.

Roscommon-South Leitrim will cease to exist as a constituency come the next general election, with Roscommon joining with parts of east Galway to form a new Roscommon-Galway three-seat constituency while Leitrim will join with Sligo and parts of Donegal and Cavan to form a new four-seat Sligo-Leitrim constituency. Dublin South West will be enlarged (and gain an extra seat) at the next general election with the addition of the old Rathfarnham electoral area (2009 boundaries), which is currently part of the Dublin South constituency. These boundary changes are likely to impact on the selection decisions ahead of the by-election contests – as evidenced, for instance, in the selection of Rathfarnham-based candidates to contest Dublin South-West with a view to the next general election, given that this area is not currently part of the Dublin South-West constituency and will not be part of it at the holding of this upcoming by-election.

The Carlow-Kilkenny by-election, to fill the vacancy arising when Phil Hogan takes up his appointment as EU Commissioner, will not take place until Spring 2014. Malcolm Noonan (Green Party) and Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Fein) – both councillors based in Kilkenny City – have expressed an interest in contesting this election.
Continue reading

Posted in by-election, Candidates, Gender | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Ministerial and Junior Ministerial appointments by constituency after the July 2014 Reshuffle (11th/15th July 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, Friday 11th July 2014 – updated Tuesday 15th July 2014 This post will look at ministerial appointments by constituency and by region, in the wake of today’s Cabinet reshuffle, and will consider whether Geography had an influence on these, while also contrasting these with the initial government appointments made back in March 2011. (This post will be updated after further changes to the junior ministerial ranks are announced next week.) With just thirty ministerial and junior ministerial posts to be distributed, this meant that just 18.1% of Dail deputies and just 28.6% of the (105) Fine Gael and Labour TDs will be taking up these posts.  Continue reading

Posted in Gender, Ministers | Tagged , , | Leave a comment