Voter turnout levels in Dail by-elections 1994-2011

Posted on March 22, 2013 by

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd March 2013

Voter turnout levels in general elections in the Republic of Ireland, as in most other democracies tend to be higher than those in other types of elections, such as referendum elections, presidential elections and local elections. The same also applies in the case of Dail by-elections; as Figure 1 shows turnout levels for by-elections held during the 1990s and 2000s in the constituencies concerned are consistently lower than those for the same constituencies in the general elections held prior to those contests.

Figure 1: Voter turnout levels by constituency for all by-elections held between 1994 and 2011 and turnout levels for the general elections preceding these

Figure 1: Voter turnout levels by constituency for all by-elections held between 1994 and 2011 and turnout levels for the general elections preceding these

Turnout levels across the nineteen by-election contests held to date during the 1990s and 2000s have averaged out at 50.5%. Continue reading →

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New European Parliament constituency boundary revision?

Posted on March 12, 2013 by

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th/13th March 2013

With Croatia about to become the newest member of the European Union in the coming months and with this state likely to be assigned 11/12 seats in the next European Parliament, theEuropean Union has voted to reapportion European Parliament seats between its different member states to take account of this and the Republic of Ireland is to lose one of its 12 seats in the European parliament. A new boundary review will need to be carried out to redraw the European election constituency boundaries in line with this ahead of next year’s European elections. But what shape might these new boundaries take?

Continue reading →

Posted in Constituency Commission, Election boundaries | 1 Comment

Losing the battle but winning the war?: General Election success for by-election losers (and by-election success for general election runners-up)

Posted on March 6, 2013 by

Adrian Kavanagh, March 6th 2013

What do Tomas MacGiolla, Dick Roche, Joe Higgins, Brian Hayes and Paul Gogarty all have in common? All of these candidates lost in by-election contests – MacGiolla (Dublin West 1982), Roche (Wicklow 1995), Higgins (Dublin West 1996), Hayes (Dublin South Central 1994) and Gogarty (Dublin West 1996). But they all went on to win seats in subsquent general election contests – MacGiolla (Dublin West November 1982), Roche (Wicklow 1997), Higgins (Dublin West 1997) – and in some cases won these in different constituencies, namely Hayes (Dublin South-West 1997) and Gogarty (Dublin Mid-West 2002). Indeed, over the past thirty years and twenty-five different by-elections, a total of 28 candidates have lost by-elections but went on win seats in subsequent general elections. Continue reading →

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Female candidacies and support levels at by-election contests, 1980-2013

Posted on March 6, 2013 by

Adrian Kavanagh, March 6th 2013 – updated March 28th 2013

228 candidates have contested the 26 different by-election contests that took place over the past three decades (between 1980 and 2011), although this number does take account of candidates (such as Jim Tallon who has to date contested nine different by-election contests) who contested in different by-elections on multiple occasions. 40 female candidates have contested these different by-election election contests, meaning that females have accounted for 17.5% of all by-election candidacies over the past three decades. In total, female candidates have won 207.776 first preference votes in these contests (22.2% of all votes cast) and won the by-election contests on eightdifferent occasions (32% of all contests).

Continue reading →

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Party vote levels at by-elections, 1980-2011

Posted on March 5, 2013 by

Adrian Kavanagh, March 6th 2013

Since January 1st 1980, twenty-four Dail by-elections have been held in the Republic of Ireland involving two hundred candidates who have won a combined total of 816,989 votes in these. Fianna Fail has been the most successful party in terms of winning votes in these by-elections (287,258 votes, or 31.5% of the total number of votes cast in by elections, marginally ahead of Fine Gael (255,911 votes, or 28.0% of the total number of votes cast in by-elections). The candidate who has won the biggest number of first preference votes in any by-election held during this period is George Lee (27,768 votes, or 53.4% of the vote, in Dublin South 2009) , followed closely by former Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (26,022 votes, or 54.7% of the vote, in Laois-Offaly 1984). However, the late Cathal Coughlan (Donegal South-West 1983) is the candidate to win the highest vote share in any by-election during this period. Continue reading →

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Support for government parties in Dail by-elections between 1980 and 2011

Posted on March 5, 2013 by

With the Meath East by-election scheduled to take place on March 27th 2013, this is a good time to review statistics for voting patterns in recent by-election contests. This post, reviewing such patterns in the 24 by-elections during the period between 1980 and 2011, shows that government parties have attained little in the way of success in such contests over the past three decades, with Clement Coughlan (Donegal 1980), Noel Treacy (Galway East 1982) and Patrick Nulty (Dublin West 2011) the only government party candidates to win a by-election over this time period. Continue reading →

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Geography of Voter Turnout for the 2012 Childrens Referendum in Dublin City

Posted on December 13, 2012 by

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th December 2012

Figure 1: Voter turnout for the 2012 Childrens Referendum by electoral division for the Dublin City constituencies

Figure 1: Voter turnout for the 2012 Childrens Referendum by electoral division for the Dublin City constituencies

This post can be viewed as a follow on from the previous two posts, which studied the geography of voter turnout for the 2012 Fiscal Stability Treaty referendum at a sub-constituency level for the Dublin City constituencies, as well as the national turnout geography (at a constituency level) for the more recent 2012 Childrens Referendum. Continue reading →

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