Given that a series of by-elections are scheduled to take place at the end of November, probably only a few months ahead of a general election contest, this old Adrian Kavanagh post on the politicalreform.ie website might be of some interest, given the parallels that might exist between the 2010 contest in Donegal South-West and the upcoming by-election contests.
Adrian Kavanagh, 5 November 2010
On the basis of the most recent general election results in Donegal South West, this might be expected to be one constituency where Fianna Fail could actually have a realistic chance of winning a by-election (thus becoming the first government party to do so since Noel Treacy won the Galway East by-election in 1982), but a study of local election result trends in the three electoral areas that this Dail constituency is comprised of – Donegal (Town), Glenties and Stranorlar – offers a more sobering portrait for Fianna Fail and offers Fine Gael hope that they could be the party to win this by-election, thus offering prospects of yet another electoral success in western Ireland for the “Kenny Krusade”.
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Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses 