Category Archives: opinion polls

“Time to go?”: Mixed messages across recent opinion polls, but Fine Gael still holds strong. Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (16th October) poll and other Autumn 2018 polls

Posted on October 16, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th October 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries are now used as the basis for the analysis. The translation of … Continue reading →

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Larger Parties Squeezing Out Smaller Parties and Independents? Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (19th April) poll and the Summer 2018 polls

Posted on April 19, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th April 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries are now used as the basis for the analysis. The translation of … Continue reading →

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Looking at the February/March 2018 polls: Constituency-level analysis of the 26th March Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and other polls

Posted on March 26, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th March 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, this will be the first set of polls analyses to use the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries as … Continue reading →

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Flashback: Seat estimates for Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne and Paddy Power-Red C opinion polls, 23rd February 2011

Posted on September 27, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th September 2017 A look back at an old constituency-level poll analysis – this one being the last analyses carried out ahead of the so-called “earthquake” election of 2011. This article was originally posted on what was then … Continue reading →

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Blue Tide Rising? Constituency-level analysis of the September 2017 opinion polls

Posted on September 26, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th September 2017 With the exception of the June Ireland Thinks/Daily Mail opinion poll, Fine Gael did not seem to be experiencing an immediate “Leo-leap” in the polls carried out following the change of party leader some months ago. The … Continue reading →

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Fine Gael experiencing a “Leo-Leap”?: Constituency-level analysis of the Ireland Thinks/Dail Mail opinion poll (26 June 2017) and other Summer 2017 polls

Posted on June 26, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th June 2017 Having experienced a series of poor figures across opinion polls in the earlier months of 2017, the Fine Gael party fortunes did improve somewhat in the polls carried out in March and April. Changes of party … Continue reading →

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Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (8th June 2017)

Posted on June 8, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th June 2017 It’s Election Day in the United Kingdom. What do the final opinion poll figures of the general election campaign suggest in relation to the likely number of seats that each party will win in that contest? … Continue reading →

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Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (29th May 2017)

Posted on May 29, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2017 There is little more than a week left now until the general election that is scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. What do the latest opinion poll figures … Continue reading →

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Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (24th May 2017)

Posted on May 24, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th May 2017 There are just over two weeks to go until the general election that is scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. What do the latest opinion poll figures suggest in … Continue reading →

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Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (19th April 2017)

Posted on April 19, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th April 2017 Following an announcement by Theresa May yesterday and a House of Commons vote to confirm this today, a “snap” general election is now scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. … Continue reading →

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