Adrian Kavanagh, 26th August 2026

Population estimate figures for 2026 for the state and for Dublin were released by the Central Statistics Office on Monday (24 August 2026), estimating the population level within the state to be 5,525,600, marking a significant increase (of 402,464 – 7.8%) on the population level recorded for the 2022 Census (5,123,536). These are, of course, only population estimates, but population estimate trend figures tend to be quite accurate when measured against the actual population figures in census years.  This would leave an average population of 31,756 per Dáil Deputy across the State (for the current 174-Dáil seat context). Given that the Constitution explicitly states that the population per TD ratio nationally must not exceed 30,000 (or indeed fall below 20,000), this means that the smallest number of Dáil deputies, which can be envisaged in the 2027/28 Electoral Commission review of/report on Dáil constituency boundaries, would be 185 (and the largest number would be 276!).

If current population growth levels continue into the census year of 2027, then the state population would be around 5,592,600, which would leave an average population of 32,141 per Dáil Deputy across the State (for the current 174-Dáil seat context). This would mean, based on those figures, that the smallest number of Dáil deputies, which could be envisaged in the 2027/28 Electoral Commission review of/report on Dáil constituency boundaries, would be 187 (and the largest number would be 279!) (NB: the one TD per 30,000 people limit in terms of the population per TD ratio does not apply to individual general election constituencies.)

A 187 seat-level would obviously ensure a much higher number of seats in contrast with the current membership (174 TDs) of Dáil Éireann. The range of seats that the Electoral Commission might get to choose from, based on those figures and based on previous revisions, might well run from something like 187 to 195 seats. In the hope that the national seat level does not have to change again in a subsequent report in line with expected further growth in the national population level – the Commission might to opt for a number at the upper end of this scale (as the Constituency Commission did for the 2012 report), although they did opt for a number towards the lower end of the range open to them for the 2022/23 revision.

Hence, the extent of the boundary changes that will be required will be more extensive than those required for any earlier boundary report (with the exception of the most recent (2022/23 Electoral Commission) report) at least over the period since the introduction of independent commissions, following on the failure of the “Tullymander” at the 1977 General Election. A new Electoral Commission boundary review report must be published within three months of the publication of the definitive Census population-by-area figures, which were published almost a year after the holding of the census in the case of the 2022 Census figures. So,  it may well be July 2028 or August 2028 before a new report is published.

Where will the new seats go to? There are no geographical breakdown details in these population estimates (with the exception of the estimate for Dublin). However, if population trends were largely the same across the state (a big assumption), we may see the new seats being distributed along these lines:

• The population estimates for the Dublin region suggest that Dublin will gain five more Dáil seats
• At least one more seat for Cork
• Extra seats for Kerry, Donegal, Waterford, with one more seat being shared between Wicklow and Wexford, and one more seat being shared between Carlow and Kilkenny. In this scenario, Waterford would become a five seat constituency, while the old two three-seat divisions within Donegal (Donegal South-West and Donegal North-East) and Kerry (Kerry North and Kerry South), which were abolished in the 2012 Constituency Commission report, could be re-established. In the case of Wicklow and Wexford, the Wicklow-Wexford constituency may well be abolished, in order to allow for the creation of two new three-seat constituencies in both Wexford and Wicklow. A similar scenario might be envisaged in relation to Carlow-Kilkenny, especially if the part of north-West Kilkenny, which was moved into Tipperary North in the 2023 revisions, was returned, resulting (probably) in a three-seat Carlow-North Kilkenny (or Carlow-West Kilkenny) and a three-seat constituency comprised of the rest of Kilkenny. As there is no scope (at present, due to the Electoral Act) to allow for six-seat constituencies, there may be some messy decisions needing to be made by the Electoral Commission here, requiring them to draw up new internal boundaries within Wicklow, Wexford and Kilkenny (historical precedents may make this less of an issue for Donegal and Kerry).
• One more seat for the Midlands region, unless the Commission is willing to entertain significant variances from the state average in order to allow for the retention of county boundaries  
• One more seat to be shared out between Kildare and Meath, especially if the east Meath area is returned from the Louth constituency (which will no longer needs east Meath as there is sufficient population to allow Louth County be a stand-alone five-seat constituency). The Meath West constituency may well become a three-seat constituency or Meath East may become a five-seater.
• One more seat for Galway. One scenario, especially if the portion of Galway in the Roscommon-Galway constituency becomes smaller, would see Galway East gain a seat (to become a five-seat constituency). An alternate scenario could see the establishment of a three-seat Galway City constituency with the other seven seats being divided across Galway County, with Galway East maybe remaining largely as is and a three-seat Galway West largely being focused on the Connemara region.

Unless a new Electoral Act allows for a change in the terms of reference for the Commission, the number of seats that can be in any Dáil constituency will range from three to five. A number larger counties, including Kerry, Donegal, Wicklow and Wexford, as well as the Carlow-Kilkenny constituency, would need to be split into two three-seat constituencies to account for population growth and the overall increase in Dáil seat numbers. Such moves would also lead to an overall increase in the number of three-seat constituencies and notably reduce district magnitude levels within the State, thus effectively reducing the overall proportionality levels.

The potential to have six-seat constituencies, however, would mean that a number of county boundary breaches would be avoided, as well as a potential mushrooming in the number of smaller, and hence less proportional, three-seat constituencies. If a new Electoral Act was brought in to change the terms of reference for the Electoral Commission to allow them to use six-seat constituencies, even if in a limited number of cases, this would by no means be a bad thing, especially as it would allow the Commission a greater degree of flexibility in trying to limit the number of county boundary breaches, which – based on trends evident in public submissions to previous Commissions – tend to be the main source of discontent for voters when it comes to changing constituency boundaries. It would also make the work of the Commission a lot easier, as they would not be required to decided on new internal boundary lines within counties such as Wexford and Wicklow. If this is not an option, then the Commission should release draft options for new constituency maps before the public submission stage commences (as happens with boundary reviews in the United Kingdom) to iron out any potential errors/issues with proposed new boundary lines in line with the views of local people from the relevant constituencies.