Category Archives: US elections

The 2016 US Presidential Election: Disproportionality, Bias and the Electoral College

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th November 2016 – latest update: 8th February 2017 As the dust settles following the conclusion of the 2016 USA Presidential Election campaign, there are two striking patterns, or trends, which point towards the high degree of disproportionality … Continue reading

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US 2016 Presidential Election: National Polls say “Clear Clinton win”, State-level Polls say “Close Contest”

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th June 2016 (Updated 6th July 2016 – see bottom of post) As we head towards the 2016 US Presidential Election in November, there seems to be different messages coming from national-level and state-level opinion polls.

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Analysing support change in the 2012 US Presidential election: The Sandy/Katrina factor

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th November 2012

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US Presidential Election: Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the election?

Following his convincing win in last week’s debate, Mitt Romney’s poll resurgence has seen him overtake Barack Obama in the national poll figures over the past few days pushed him into the lead, being 1.5 percentage points ahead of Obama … Continue reading

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Estimating the US Presidential election: applying national opinion poll levels to the state-level contests

Opinion polls ahead of November’s presidential election contest in the United States of America are pointing to a close contest between Barack Obama and his Republic Party challenger, Mitt Romney, with an averaging out of the most recent polls, following … Continue reading

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