Fine Gael candidates for the 2019 Local Elections

Adrian Kavanagh, First posted 17th October 2018, with updates as new candidate nominations announced. Any links in this post are to online announcements of candidate selections – there will be no specific links to candidate webpages.

The fourth of my series of rolling blog posts, in which I detail the latest information as to candidate selections relating to the different political parties and grouping and/or candidate declarations (as in the case of the non-party grouping). The rule of thumb here is that I will add party candidates in most cases only after they have been officially selected to run for the party at a selection convention or by some other means of candidate selection. I try my best to find information about local election candidate selection conventions, but in some cases this information is hard to find and occasionally it can be some time after a convention takes place before I find this information and hence am in a position to update this page accordingly.

The post will focus on Fine Gael candidate selections ahead of the 2019 City and County Council elections.  Continue reading

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Female candidates contesting the 2019 Local Elections

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th October 2018 – post updated as and when new female candidates are added/female candidates withdraw

314 female candidates contested the 2009 City and County Council elections, accounting for 17.2% of the total number of candidates, while 404 female candidates contested the 2014 City and County Council elections, accounting for 21.6% of the total number of candidates contesting those elections. For the 2019 elections, given that gender quotas were introduced the 2016 General Election, the expectation might be that even more female candidates will be contesting these City and County Council elections. Against that, the likely impact of smaller constituency units (with fewer seats per constituency) for the 2019 elections (relative to the 2014 contests) may act as a disincentive to new, female, candidates, or may limit the number of candidates being selected by political parties at selection conventions, thus preventing a number of new, female, candidates from getting onto party tickets.

Based on the list of candidates below, there are now fifty three officially selected/declared female candidates (out of a total of one hundred and one candidates), with female candidates currently accounting for 52.5% of the total number of candidates selected/declared that I have accounted for to date. Continue reading

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“The Younger Ones”: 2019 Local Elections candidates aged between 18 and 35

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th October 2018

In a similar vein to earlier posts relating to the younger 2011 General Election candidates, 2014 Local Election candidates and 2016 General Election candidates, this page seeks to list the names, and party affiliations, of all the 2019 Local Elections candidates whose ages will still fall in the 18-35 years age category at the time that the 2019 elections take place (24th May 2019).

Candidates whose ages fall in the 18-30 years category will be denoted by a *

Please note that this is likely to prove to be an incomplete list of the names of the younger local election candidates, mainly due to the difficulties faced in terms of accessing accurate age information for candidates in a large number of cases. Given the large number of candidates involved at local elections and the difficulties involved in getting age details for some candidates, the likelihood is that I will miss out on some names that should be included here but I will do my best to ensure this list is as accurate as possible.

If you note any glaring absences (especially if you are one of the candidates that should be listed below, or are incorrectly listed below), then please contact me and I will envisage to update/amend this list as soon as I can –  please Tweet me at @adriankavanagh or send an email to me at adrian.p.kavanagh@mu.ie. Alternately, please use the comments section below, or else please comment/message me via the Adrian Kavanagh Elections Facebook page. But I can’t add names unless (i) candidates have already been selected, or declared, (ii) there’s certainty about the candidate age details.

At present (17th October 2018), I can currently account for at least seventeen candidates in the 18-35 age category (17.3% of the total number of local election candidates selected/declared to date) – nine (52.9%) of the candidates in this group are male while eight (47.1%) of the candidates in this group are female. Continue reading

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The 2011 Presidential Election: A Geographical Overview

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th October 2018

There is always a “geography” to electoral support and turnout patterns and this was very much the case with the 2011 Presidential Election. This post will briefly review the geography of candidate support and voter turnout at this contest, with a look ahead to the upcoming presidential election contest on 26th October 2018. Continue reading

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“Time to go?”: Mixed messages across recent opinion polls, but Fine Gael still holds strong. Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (16th October) poll and other Autumn 2018 polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th October 2018

As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries are now used as the basis for the analysis. The translation of 2016 support figures onto these new constituency units is not a perfect one, alas, given the lack of tally figures in some cases (e.g. Laois, Offaly and Kildare constituencies) or the lack of time to carry out the necessary background analyses in other cases (e.g. constituencies in the West and North West). Where it has been possible to take account of tally figures, the constituency support estimates are based on the votes cast in the new constituency units in those cases.

Slide1

The early opinion polls in 2018 offered very good news for Fine Gael. The party has dropped back somewhat in some of the opinion polls carried out across the Summer and Autumn of 2018, but Fine Gael still remains the strongest party in the state by a distance of a number of percentage points over Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, although the extent of the Fine Gael lead over Fianna Fáil varies notably between polls, as also does the estimate of the Sinn Féin support level. Tat being said, the combined vote Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil vote share across all of these polls has generally averaged out around the 60% level. This, admittedly, represents a lower support level than the combined vote levels commanded by these parties before the onset of the Economic Crisis in 2008, but these poll figures seem to mark another stage in the recovery of the “Civil War” parties, given that the two parties won less than half of the votes cast nationally at the 2016 General Election. Is the old “Civil War” politics model on the way back? Maybe, maybe not… However, it must be noted that when the other “Civil War” party, Sinn Féin, is factored in the combined support levels for the “Civil War parties” comes in at 82% in the latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll – up by around eighteen percent on the combined support levels won by these three parties at the 2016 election. As the larger parties advance, the smaller parties and Independents all fall back, while the Labour Party support levels have tended to remain lower (especially in certain polls) than the already very low levels of support won by that party at the 2016 General Election.   Continue reading

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Non Party/Independent candidates for the 2019 Local Elections

Adrian Kavanagh,  First posted 9th October 2018, with updates to follow as I become aware of new candidate declarations. 

This is the latest in my series of rolling blog posts, in which I detail the latest information as to candidate selections relating to the different political parties and grouping and/or candidate declarations (as in the case of the non-party grouping) ahead of the 2019 City and County Council elections. This post will focus on non-party/independent candidates. Continue reading

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Does Size Matter? Reviewing the”Report on European Parliament Constituencies 2018″

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th September 2018

A new boundary report was published today by the Constituency Commission, outlining the new European Parliament election constituency boundaries that will be in place at the next European elections in May 2019. BREXIT and the subsequent surrender of the United Kingdom’s European Parliament seats has led to the Republic of Ireland gaining an extra two seats in that Parliament. This report redrew the Irish election constituencies, taking those two added seats into account.

The main changes made by the Commission may be viewed in this image below:

Europeparliarment

Continue reading

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