Adrian Kavanagh, 28th November 2016
The November 2016 Red C opinion polls shows little in the way of changes in support levels since the previous Red C poll in October. The main change here sees Sinn Fein gaining a further three percentage points in terms of their support levels, while support levels for the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit fall back by four percentage points, following on an exceptionally strong showing for that political grouping in the October 2016 Red C poll. Support levels for Fianna Fail fall back by two percentage points, leaving Fine Gael once again positioned as the most popular party in the state (albeit by the narrowest of margins), based on these poll support levels. As it is, the support levels in this poll mirrors the results of the February 26th election to a remarkable degree, save for the fact that Sinn Fein and Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit are faring slightly better and the Labour Party is faring slightly worse. It is almost as if the shifts in support levels that occurred over the past eight months never happened! The 27th November Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Independents and Others 29% (down 3%) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 3%, Renua 1%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 12% – Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 3%), Labour Party 5% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 28, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 7, Labour Party 1, Green Party 2, Social Democrats 4, Independents 20.