Fine Gael Target Constituencies for the next General Election

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd May 2016

Following the previous post, which tried to identify potential target constituencies for the Labour Party at the next general election based on an analysis of the 2016 General Election constituency figures, this post will involve a similar analysis for Fine Gael. Fine Gael candidates were runners-up in 18 of the 40 constituencies at the 2016 election, but how large was the margin between success and defeat in the constituencies that Fine Gael missed out on seats in?      Continue reading

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Labour Party Target Constituencies for the next General Election

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th May 2016

Following the appointment of Brendan Howlin as the new leader of the Labour Party earlier today, this might be an appropriate point to consider the constituencies that Labour may be specifically targeting with a view to gaining, or rather regaining, seats at the next general election – whenever that may be! Admittedly the most recent opinion polls have not made for pleasant reading for Labour and there are many commentators who do not see a way back to the party. But it is worth noting that exactly five years ago other commentators were claiming that Fianna Fail and the Green Party were both “finished”, yet both parties subsequently recovered over the following years to make gains at the 2014 Local Elections and, of course, the February 2016 General Election. In light of this, this post will try to tease out where the party might be most likely to make gains at the next general election, based on a study of the constituency voting figures at the 2016 election. Continue reading

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Fianna Fail edging ahead?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls (15th May/17th April 2016)

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th May 2016

With a new government now in place for a number of weeks, it is worthwhile now to review the trends observed in opinion polls carried out since the February 26th General Election. An earlier post reviewed trends observed in the two Red C opinion poll carried out since this election. This post will, instead, focus on the two Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls carried out over the past few months. The most recent of these polls – the 15th May Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Independents and Others 26% – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua 0%, Green Party 4%, Workers Party 1%, Independent Alliance 7%, Other Independents 8% – Fianna Fail 27%, Fine Gael 26%, Sinn Fein 16%, Labour Party 5%. As such, there is no major movement in party/grouping  support levels since the February 26th election, with the notable exceptions of the Social Democrats (up 2%) and Labour (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 51, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 26, Labour Party 1, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Independents 21. (An earlier poll – 17th April Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows Independents and Others 31% – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua 1%, Green Party 3%, Workers Party 3%, Independent Alliance 8%, Other Independents 10% – Fianna Fail 26%, Fine Gael 23%, Sinn Fein 17%, Labour Party 4%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 53, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 26, Labour Party 1, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Independents 27. Note that the remainder of the discussion/analysis in this post relates solely to the May 15th opinion poll.)

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Ministerial and Junior Ministerial appointments by constituency (6th May 2016)

Adrian Kavanagh, Friday 6th May 2016 – updated: Friday 19th May 2016

This post will look at ministerial appointments by constituency and by region, following the re-election of Enda Kenny earlier and the announcement of the new cabinet, including Fine Gael and Independent Dail deputies, as well as the junior ministerial appointments which followed almost two weeks later. With thirty three ministerial and junior ministerial posts to be distributed, this meant that just 21.0% of Dail deputies (excluding the Ceann Comhairle) will be taking up these posts, but this percentage increases dramatically to 56.9% when only the Dail deputies from Fine Gael and the group of Independents supporting the Government are factored in.  (There was, of course, a chance that some junior ministerial appointments may come from the Seanad ranks, as noted in the previous post, but this did not happen.) Continue reading

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Seanad Elections 2016 – A Final Overview

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th April 2016

Figure 1: Number of seats won by political parties/groups and by female candidates at 2011 and 2016 Seanad Elections

Counting for the 2016 Seanad Elections, which had commenced on the morning of Monday 25th April, finally concluded in the evening of Thursday 28th April, with the completion of counting for the Administrative Panel. This post briefly review the main trends evident in these contests. Continue reading

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Seanad Election 2016 – Administrative Panel counts: Updates and Perspectives

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th April 2016 (This post will be (hopefully) updated, as and when counts proceed over the rest of the day.)

Counting for the 2016 Seanad elections commenced on 25th April 2016 with the counting of votes for the 5-seat Cultural and Educational Panel. The second of the panels to be counted were be the 11-seat Agricultural and Labour Panels. Counting for these panels commenced on 26th April, with counting for the Labour panel continuing into the following  morning. The next panel to be counted was be the 9-seat Industrial and Commercial Panel, with counting commencing around midday on 27th April and continuing late into that night. The final panel to be counted would be the Administrative Panel.

Administrative Panel (7 seats – at least 3 “Inside”/at least 3 “Outside”)

The last constituency/panel to be counted in the 2016 Seanad Elections was the Administrative panel. The First Count for this panel would commence at 10.00am on Thursday 28th April 2016 and details for this and subsequent counts may be viewed here. Continue reading

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Seanad Election 2016 – Industrial and Commercial Panel counts: Updates and Perspectives

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th April 2016 (This post will be (hopefully) updated, as and when counts proceed over the rest of the day.)

Counting for the 2016 Seanad elections commenced on 25th April 2016 with the counting of votes for the 5-seat Cultural and Educational Panel. The second of the panels to be counted were be the 11-seat Agricultural and Labour Panels. Counting for these panels commenced on 26th April, with counting for the Labour panel continuing into the following  morning. The next panel to be counted will be the 9-seat Industrial and Commercial Panel.

Industrial and Commercial Panel (9 seats – at least 3 “Inside”/at least 3 “Outside”)

The First Count for this panel is expected to take place around midday on 27th April 2016 and details for this and subsequent counts may be viewed here. Continue reading

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