Adrian Kavanagh, 25 May 2026
Bye-election contests are usually bad news for government parties, especially if these occur in the middle of the electoral cycle. Between 1982 and this weekend’s elections, government parties had won by-election contests on only three occasions (out of 33 contests) and two of those contests involved family members retaining the party (Fine Gael) seat in contests where there was an obvious sympathy vote at play (Meath East 2013, Longford-West 2014). The only government “pick-up” came when Labour won the 2011 Dublin West bye-election, helped no doubt by this election taking place on the same day that Michael D. Higgins won the presidential election and taking place before the 2011 Budget, after which point the Labour vote started to go into freefall.

