Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th January 2018

As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, this will be the first polls analyses to use the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries as the basis for the analysis. The translation of 2016 support figures onto these new constituency units is not a perfect one, alas, given the lack of tally figures in some cases (e.g. the Laois, Offaly and Kildare constituencies) or the lack of time to carry out the necessary background analyses in other cases (e.g. the constituencies in the West and North West). Where it has been possible to take account of tally figures, the constituency support estimates are based on the votes cast in the new constituency units in those cases.

The first two opinion polls of 2018 – the Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes poll (21st January) and the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (25th January) – offer relatively good news for Fine Gael, although the party’s support level has dipped slightly relative to the level of support registered by the party in the December 2017 polls. Furthermore, the combined vote Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil vote share in these two polls stands at just under 60%. This, admittedly, is lower than the combined vote levels commanded by these parties before the onset of the Economic Crisis in 2008, but these poll figures seem to mark another stage in the recovery of the “Civil War” parties, given that the two parties won less than half of the votes cast nationally at the 2016 General Election. Is “Civil War” politics back? Maybe, maybe not…although it must be noted that when the other “Civil War” party, Sinn Fein, is factored in here, the combined support levels for the “Civil War parties” comes in between 75% and 80% in these two polls – up by over 15% on the combined support levels won by these parties at the 2016 election. As the larger parties advance, the smaller parties and Independents all fall back, while the Labour Party support levels remain significantly lower (especially in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll) than the already very low levels of support won by that party at the 2016 contest.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th December 2017

Following on the general election speculation of recent weeks and a decidedly unpromising Red C poll from the previous weekend, this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll offers very good news for Fine Gael, with this showing Fine Gael on a support level similar to that won by the party in the 2011 General Election. There is also good news for Sinn Féin, but not good news for Fianna Fáil, with that party’s support level falling – relative to the previous Ipsos-MRBI poll from October – in line with the surge in Fine Gael support. However, the combined vote Fine Gael/Fianna Fail vote share in this poll stands at 61%. This, admittedly, is lower than the combined vote levels commanded by these parties before the onset of the Economic Crisis in 2008, but these poll figures seem to mark another stage in the recovery of the “Civil War” parties. Is “Civil War” politics back? Maybe, maybe not…although it must be noted that when the other “Civil War” party, Sinn Fein, is factored in here, the combined support levels for the “Civil War parties” comes in 80% in this poll – up by over 15% on the combined support levels won by these parties at the 2016 election. As the larger parties advance, the smaller parties and Independents all fall back, with the exception of the Green Party, while the Labour Party support levels remain significantly lower than the already very low levels of support won by that party at the 2016 contest. 

The 7th December 2017 Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll etimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 25% (down 4% relative to the previous Ipsos MRBI opinion poll), Fine Gael 36% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Independents and Others 16% (down 3%) – including Solidarity-People Before Profit 1%, Social Democrats 1%, Green Party 3%, Independents 9% – Labour Party 4% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 44, Fine Gael 70, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 2, Green Party 2, Social Democrats 1, Independents 11.     Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 5th October 2017

The trends evidenced in the most recent other opinion polls are readily apparent in this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, which shows support levels for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (and Sinn Fein) that are notably higher than the levels won by those parties at the 2016 General Election. This election had marked the first point in history in which the combined vote share for the traditional “main parties” of Irish politics, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, came in under the 50% mark. However, the combined vote Fine Gael/Fianna Fail vote share in this poll stands at 60%. This, admittedly, is lower than the combined vote levels commanded by these parties before the onset of the Economic Crisis in 2008, but these poll figures seem to mark another stage in the recovery of the “Civil War” parties. Is “Civil War” politics back? Maybe, maybe not…although it must be noted that when the other “Civil War” party, Sinn Fein, is factored in here, the combined support levels for the “Civil War parties” comes in at just under 80% in this poll – up by around 15% on the combined support levels won by these parties at the 2016 election. As the larger parties advance, the smaller parties and Independents all fall back, with the exception of the Green Party, while Labour support levels are significantly lower than the already very low levels of support won by that party at the 2016 contest. The Empire Strikes Back? Probably… Continue reading →