Adrian Kavanagh, 1st November 2016
The latest in series of Red C opinion polls shows little change in support levels for the two largest parties in the wake of the recent Budget, with Fianna Fail support levels dropping by one percentage point, while Fine Gael support levels remain as they were back in September’s poll. The Independent Alliance do gain two percentage points in this latest poll, however. The main shifts in terms of support patterns comes on the left of the political spectrum, however. Support levels for both Sinn Fein and Labour fall by two percentage points, but there is a three percentage point increase in support levels for Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit. The 30th October Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26% (down 1% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Independents and Others 32% (up 6%) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 9%, Social Democrats 3%, Green Party 3%, Renua <1%, Independent Alliance 6%, Other Independents 10% – Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 13% (down 2%), Labour Party 5% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 53, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 19, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 12, Labour Party 2, Green Party 2, Social Democrats 2, Independents 20.
Other Recent Polls: A number of other opinion polls were carried out in the weeks prior to, as well as the weeks following, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. Analyses of these are not covered in detail on this website, but the seat-estimate figures drawn from a constituency-level analysis of these polls will be reported below: Continue reading