Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th February 2016

The February 7th Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll had brought some good news for Fine Gael and Labour in the face of less positive news from the other polls published around that same time. But since that poll, a Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll, published a few days later, and Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll, published a week later, saw some slippage in the government support trends. This latest Red C poll continues in that same vein somewhat, with a further loss in support for Fine Gael although Labour claw back some ground here. There are mixed messages for the different Opposition groupings and parties in this poll. There is bad news for Sinn Fein, with that party losing the three percentage points that it had gained in this weekend’s  Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll. By contrast, there is a one percentage point gain for Fianna Fail in this poll, with a three percentage point gain for the Independent and Others grouping. This poll represents the highest combined level of support for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein in a Red C poll since June 2015. This latest poll leaves the government parties on a combined level of support that is probably some six to seven percentage points short of the level of support that they would need to attain in order to return to power in March. This latest Irish Sun-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 14th 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Independents and Others 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 9% (up 1%), Green Party 4% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 13, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 38. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 13th February 2016

Last week’s Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll brought some good news for Fine Gael and Labour in the face of less positive news from the other polls published around that same time. A Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll, published a few days later, saw some slippage in the government support trends and tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll continues in that same vein, with a combined loss in government party support levels of five percentage points since last week’s poll, thus bringing their support levels into line with those of the Ipsos-MRBI, Millward-Browne and Behaviour & Attitudes polls that were published last week. By contrast, this latest poll marks some notable gains for the Opposition, but particularly for Sinn Fein with that party gaining three percentage points since last week’s poll. There is a one percentage point gain for Fianna Fail and the Independent and Others grouping. This poll represents the highest combined level of support for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein in a Red C poll since June 2015. This latest poll leaves the government parties on a combined level of support that is probably some six to seven percentage points short of the level of support that they would need to attain in order to return to power in March. This latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 7th 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 28% (down 3%), Independents and Others 26% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (up 1%), Labour Party 8% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 39. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 10th February 2016

Figure 1: Dail seat estimate trends across poll analyses between August 2015 and February (10th) 2016

Across the four polls published in the first few days of the official general election campaign, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll obviously offered the best news for the two government parties, with their combined support estimates in this poll coming well ahead of the estimated figures in the other polls. The latest Red C poll however offers a more sobering political landscape for Fine Gael and Labour, with both parties losing a combined support level of three percentages relative to the poll published on Sunday. This latest Red C poll sees Fianna Fail and the Independent and Others both gaining some ground at the expense of the government parties, while Sinn Fein support levels remain unchanged. This Paddy Power-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 7th 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (down 1%), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (NC), Labour Party 8% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 40. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 7th February 2016

Continuing the trend of widely varying support levels patterns across recent polls, the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown brings as much bad news for the two government parties and good news for Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein as this weekend’s Red C poll brought good news for the government parties and bad news for the two main Opposition parties. The combined support levels estimated for the two government parties in this poll are eight percentage points lowers than those estimated in the Red C poll, while the combined support levels for Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail are, by contrast, seen to be seven percentage points higher. The overall trend in this specific Millward Brown poll, relative to the previous such one which was published on 7th November 2015, sees a trend of falling support for the larger parties with gains being made by the Independents and Others grouping. This latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (relative to the November 2015 Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 27% (down 2%), Independents and Others 23% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Labour Party 6% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 34. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 6th February 2016

The second Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll of 2016 again brings mixed messages for the two government parties, but in this case it will be Fine  This weekend’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 28% (down 3%), Independents and Others 26% (NC) – including Independent Alliance 4%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 3%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Renua 2%, Workers Party 1% and Other Independents 10% – Fianna Fail 20% (NC), Sinn Fein 17% (up 1%), Labour Party 8% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 54, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 8, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th February 2016

Only a few days after a highly disappointing showing in the Ipsos-MRBI poll, the latest in the series of Red C opinion polls brings much better news for the two government parties. Fine Gael claw back most of the ground lost by the party in the two January 2016 polls, following an especially strong showing in the December 2015 poll, while Labour hold their support level at the crucial 10% national support level. This latest poll sees Sinn Fein lose some ground. Fianna Fail support levels remain at the 17% level, some four percentage lower than the level of support estimated for that party in this week’s Ipsos-MRBI poll. By contrast, support levels for the Independent and Others remain at the 25% level for the third national opinion poll in a row. In all, the combined support levels for the two government parties in this latest Red C poll stands some six percentage points ahead of the level of support estimated for them in the Ipsos-MRBI poll that was published some days ago and five percentage points ahead of the level of support estimated for them in this weekend’s Behaviour & Attitudes poll . This latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the January 31st 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 31% (up 2%), Independents and Others 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 17% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (NC), Labour Party 10% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 59, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 15, Independents and Others 34. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 4th February 2016

Today sees the publication of the first Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll of 2016 and indeed the first opinion poll of the official general election campaign.  The trends in this poll – given that the Ipsos MRBI polls appear less regularly than other polls – offer a useful synthesis of the trends that have been evident in recent editions of the other polls, in which Fine Gael support has dropped slightly while there has been some recovery in support levels for the Independents and Others grouping. Labour do not lose support in this poll, but the party will be concerned at the lowly 7% support level recorded for it, while Fianna Fail gain support and there is a drop in support levels for Sinn Fein. To a large degree, this poll seems to largely reverse the trends evident in the November 2015 version of the Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI poll. Today’s Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI poll): Fine Gael 28% (down 2%), Independents and Others 25% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 21% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 58, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 36.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 30th January 2016

In the last Red C opinion poll of 2015, the two government parties had achieved their highest combined support levels in an opinion poll since the Millward Brown poll of 25th January 2014. This marked the culmination of a trend evident across the opinion polls carried out during 2015, in which government party fortunes (and in particular those of Fine Gael) improved relative to the low point in government support levels registered in December 2014.

However, the first two Red C polls of 2016 has seen Fine Gael lose some ground (down by three percentage points) on their December 2015 poll levels. By contrast, the poll marks some good news for Labour, with the party gaining one percentage point to bring its estimated national support levels up to the crucial ten percent level. In this poll Fianna Fail lose the ground that they regained in the January 17th poll, with this ground being lost to the Independents and Others grouping. This latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the January 17th 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 29% (down 1%), Independents and Others 25% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 17%% (down 2%), Labour Party 10% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 14, Independents and Others 36.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2016

The first Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll of 2016 is almost the mirror image of the last such poll in 2015, with Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping reclaiming the ground lost in the last poll of 2015, while Labour loses the ground reclaimed in that same poll. This is a good poll for Fine Gael, whose support levels remain at the level recorded in December 2015, but this is obviously not the case for Labour. This weekend’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 31% (NC), Independents and Others 26% (up 2%) – including Green Party 3%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 1%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 64, Sinn Fein 21, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 36.  Continue reading →