By-election winners and losers, 1982-2010

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

Reviewing the past three decades of by-election results shows (as covered in the previous post) that government parties tend to fare poorly in by-election contests, but does certain parties or groupings tend to do especially well/poorly in these? A review of by-election winners since 1980 shows that

  • Fianna Fail have won 6 of the 23 contests involved (but haven’t won a by-election since the 1996 Dublin West by-election),
  • Fine Gael have won 7 by-elections (and have won 4 of the 11 contests held since 1997),
  • Labour have won 3 (with all of these victories concentrated over the 1998/1999 period),
  • Democratic Left have won 2 (both wins in 1994),
  • Sinn Fein have won one (the most recent contest in Donegal South-West),
  • Non-party/smaller party candidates won four (including the 2000 Tipperary South by-election win by Seamus Healy, whose Workers and Unemployed Action Group is now part of the United Left Alliance). Continue reading →
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By-elections: Bad for government parties’ health?

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

With the Dublin West by-election scheduled to take place on the same day as the Presidential Election, this is a good time to review statistics for voting patterns in recent by-election contests. This post, reviewing such patterns in the 23 by-elections held since 1980, shows that government parties have attained little in the way of success in such contests over the past three decades, with Noel Treacy (Galway East 1982) emerging as the only government party candidate to win a by-election over this time period. Continue reading →

Posted in by-election, Constituency information, Election data | Tagged | 3 Comments

Gender and Voting Patterns in the 2011 General Election

Posted on September 2, 2011 by Claire McGing

By Claire McGing, IRCHSS scholar, Dept of Geography, NUI Maynooth 

Women comprised just 15 per cent of women candidates in the 2011 general elections, but how did those that ran fare in comparison to their male colleagues in terms of voting patterns? Continue reading →

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Electoral boundary proposals for a 156-seat Dail

Posted on July 5, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

Until the Constituency Commission decides on the exact number of seats that will be in the next Dail – they have been set a range from 152 to 160 seats (or effectively a 153 to 160 seats range, as the 152 option would breach the constitutional limit that there must be no more than 30,000 people for every TD) – it is hard to determine what the shape of electoral boundary arrangements might be. Perhaps the more likely option might be the 156-seat option – it is an even number and is close to the lower limit of the range set by the 2011 Electoral (Amendment) Act, but not too close. So what changes to constituency boundaries might be involved in a situation (as referenced in an earlier post) where there will be 10 fewer Dail seats? Here are my sugggestions – suggestions which, if taken up, could save the time and expense of setting up a new Constituency Commission! 🙂 🙂 Continue reading →

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Commentary on election boundary implications of Census 2011 figures – 158 seat Dail context

Posted on July 1, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

Following on from the previous post, this post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 158 seat tally was agreed on and in light of the provisional population levels: Continue reading →

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Commentary on election boundary implications of Census 2011 figures – 160 seat Dail context:

Posted on July 1, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

Following on from the previous post, this post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 160 seat tally was agreed on and in light of the provisional population levels: Continue reading →

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Commentary on election boundary implications of Census 2011 figures – 156 seat Dail context

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

The publication of preliminary population and population by area figures for the 2011 Census on June 30th point to the need for extensive boundary changes, especially in light of the government commitment to significantly reduce the number of Dail seats. The possibility of a 20-seat reduction has been ruled out by the (to some degree unexpected) extent of the population increase involved – the constitutional stipulation that the population per TD ratio in the state must lie within a 20,000 to 30,000 range means that the largest seat reduction possible amounts to a 13-seat reduction. Continue reading →

Posted in Constituency Commission, Constituency information, Election boundaries | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Is there a ‘gender gap’ in Irish voting behaviour? Looking at GE 2011

Posted on June 6, 2011 by Claire McGing

Does gender impact on voting behaviour in the Republic of Ireland? Although historically Fianna Fáil was the most popular party with women voters (the female vote may have been crucial to their success in 1977 in particular), research on more recent elections suggests that gender differences in party support are small and usually not statistically significant.

Data from the 2007 and 2011 RTE/Lansdowne exit poll allows us to look for differences between men and women in terms of their voting behaviour in the most recent general election. Continue reading →

Posted in Election data, Gender | Tagged | 1 Comment

Anything but unusual: the use of Gender Quotas in the EU states

Posted on June 2, 2011 by Claire McGing

By Claire McGing, John and Pat Hume and Irish Research Council for the Humanities and Social Sciences scholar, Department of Geography,  NUI Maynooth

Under planned new legislation, political parties will have to implement a gender quota for future general election candidates. If parties do not select at least 30% women, they will have their funding from the Exchequer cut by 50%. The quota will rise to 40% after seven years. Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan has said that a heavy financial penalty is the only way to “concentrate the mind” of parties. Given that party State funding is based on their share of the vote in the previous general election, the quota would be more difficult to implement for local elections, but Minister Hogan hopes that the various parties will replicate the model in 2014. Continue reading →

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Labour’s target constituencies for the next general election

Posted on June 1, 2011 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st June 2011

Swing (%) required for a Labour seat gain by constituency

The Labour Party made significant gains in the February 2011 election, almost doubling their share of the vote nationally and increasing their number of Dail seats from 20 to 37. Due mainly to the party’s ability to win transfers from a range of different parties and political groupings, Labour attained a seat bonus of almost 3% in winning 22.3% of the seats on a national vote share of 19.4%. Despite this, further small swings to the party in a number of Dail constituencies could see further seat gains being made by Labour, as the map above suggests. Continue reading →

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