Commentary on submissions to the 2012 Constituency Commission

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th February 2012

Some months after the publication of provisional population by area figures by the Central Statistics Office for the 2011 Census, a new Constituency Commission was set in place to begin the process of redrawing European and general election constituency boundaries in light of the changes in population between 2006 and 2011 as revealed in these figures. The other main factor for the new commission to consider was the decision to reduce the number of TDs in the next Dail, in keeping with government reccomendations and the stipulations set out in the 2011 amendment to the Electoral Act. The process commenced much earlier for this Commission than for previous ones, in which the process has started after the publication of the final, or definitive, population by area census figures by the CSO. Following the ruling on the McGrath/Murphy high court case in 2007, the Commission must now commence the process of redrawing Dail and European election constituency boundaries after provisional census figures are published although they cannot publish the final report until after the final or definitive population by area census figures have been published. Given that there tends to be little difference between provisional and final census figures for large areas such as constituencies, very few final tweaks may be needed should a draft version of the final report be available ahead of the publication of the final census figures and the published report is likely to be available some weeks after these figures are released.

In total, 533 public submissions were made to the Constituency Commission between the receipt of the first submission on 22nd September 2011 and the closing date for submissions (10th January 2012). This compared highly favourably with the level of submissions for the two previous cases, with 335 submissions made in the case of the 2007 Constituency Commission and just 99 submissions made in the case of the 2004 Constituency Commission. Continue reading

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Commentary on campaign expenditure data for the 2011 Presidential Election

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th February 2011

The Standards in Public Office Commission made its report on donations and election expenses disclosed to it by the seven presidential election candidates on 14th February 2012. This report found that, in total, €304,570.75 in campaign donations was received by the seven candidates while they spent a total of just over €2.3 million between them based on declarations submitted to the commission, amounting to an average campaign spend of €331,225.30 per candidate. Continue reading

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Female candidacies and success levels in 2009’s local electoral contests

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd February 2012

Given the day that’s in it, many will be considering the effect of gender quotas and whether increased levels of female candidates will necessarily translate into a higher level of female representatives. I would argue that the relative success of gender quotas is likely to be predicated, and potentially limited, by constituency size considerations with female candidates less likely to make a breakthrough in smaller sized (e.g. three seat) constituencies based on previous research noted on this site by Claire McGing and yours truly. Continue reading

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Irish General Election 2011 Facts and Figures’ Golden Goose Awards 2011: The Winners

Adrian Kavanagh, 1 January 2012

The basis for judgement here is not simply the weight of votes won by a party or candidate, but the extent of improvement relative to a previous contest, the level of local competition from opposing parties/candidates and the impact that a candidate’s performance had on those of their constituency running mates or even on their party’s national prospects. Continue reading

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Irish General Election 2011 Facts and Figures’ Golden Goose Awards 2011: The Nominations

Adrian Kavanagh, 19 December 2011

OK, for better or worse here is the list of the nominees for the Irish General Election 2011 Facts and Figures’ Golden Goose Awards. There is without doubt going to be some glaring omissions here, but what is an awards contest without a bit of controversy! Continue reading

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Irish General Election 2011 Facts and Figures’ Golden Goose Awards 2011

Adrian Kavanagh, 14 December 2011

There have been many electoral contests during 2011, associated with February’s general election, the Seanad elections in April and the October’s presidential elections, in addition to a by-election and two referendum elections. But which parties and candidates managed to get the golden goose who laid the golden electoral eggs in these contests? Continue reading

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How much do Irish political parties spend on promoting women?

By Claire McGing, Government of Ireland IRCHSS scholar and John and Pat Hume scholar, NUI Maynooth

In May 2011, Phil Hogan, Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government, announced his intention to introduce legislation whereby political parties must ensure that 30% of their general election candidates are women and 30% are men. The proposed sanction for non-compliance is very strict: parties face losing 50% of their annual funding from the state if they fail to meet the quota requirement. The proposed legislation is due to come into affect at the next general election. Continue reading

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Perspectives on the Dublin West constituency

On October 27th a by-election will take place in the Dublin West to fill the seat vacated following the death of Brian Lenihan TD. 13 candidates will be contesting this election, based on the official candidate information provided by the Dublin County returning officer. The constituency is located in its entirety within Fingal county. Dublin West is largely comprised of two different local election constituencies focusing on the Greater Blanchardstown area – the Mulhuddart electoral area and the Castleknock electoral area (although the 2008 Constituency Commission controversially opted to move the western part of Swords Town into Dublin West).  Continue reading

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Party vote levels at by-elections, 1980-2010

Since January 1st 1980, twenty-four Dail by-elections have been held in the Republic of Ireland involving two hundred candidates who have won a combined total of 816,989 votes in these. Fianna Fail has been the most successful party in terms of winning votes in these by-elections (279,516 votes, or 31.9% of the total number of votes cast in by elections, marginally ahead of Fine Gael (250,648 votes, or 28.6% of the total number of votes cast in by-elections). The candidate who has won the biggest number of first preference votes in any by-election held during this period is George Lee (27,768 votes, or 53.4% of the vote, in Laois-Offaly 1984) , followed closely former Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (26,022 votes, or 54.7% of the vote, in Laois-Offaly 1984), but the late Cathal Coughlan (Donegal South-West 1983) is the candidate to win the highest vote share in any by-election during this period. Continue reading

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Female candidacies and support levels at by-election contests, 1982-2010

There has been exactly two hundred candidacies across the 23 different by-election contests that took place over the past three decades (between 1982 and 2010), although this number does take account of candidates (such as Jim Tallon who has to date contested seven different by-election contests) who contested in different by-elections on multiple occasions. There have been 37 female candidacies across these different by-election election contests, meaning that females have accounted for 18.5% of all by-election candidacies over the past three decades. In total, female candidates have won 185,615 first preference votes in these contests (22.7% of all votes cast) and won the by-election contests on seven different occasions (30% of all contests). Continue reading

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