Census 2011, general election constituencies and county boundaries

Posted on April 16, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

The focus of many submissions to Constituency Commissions has to do with concerns over existing, or potential, breaches of county boundaries in respect to the creation/changing of Dail constituency boundaries. This post here reviews the potential scenarios involving the different counties in relation to the potential redressing of existing county boundary breaches or the likelihood of new county boundary breaches in light of the population change figures published last June in the provisional Census 2011 figures and confirmed recently with the publication of the definitive census population figures. The reduction in Dail seat numbers will be as big an issue – if not even a bigger one – for the Commission to consider this time around and the post will consider this with specific focus on the impact of the Commission opting to choose larger or smaller seat number options from the range (153-160 Dail seats) open to them. Continue reading →

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Shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 156-seat Dail (updated based on definitive Census 2011 figures)

Posted on March 30, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 30th March 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published in the coming weeks after the publication of final/definitive population statistics for Census 2011 by the Central Statistics Office yesterday. This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 156 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail. Continue reading →

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Shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 158-seat Dail (updated based on definitive Census 2011 figures)

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th March 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published in the coming weeks after the final/definitive population statistics for Census 2011 were published today.  This posts follows on the previous posts in this series which updates the analysis carried out previously for 154-Dail seat and 160-Dail seat scenarios to consider what options the Constituency Commission might face if they decide to opt for a 158-seat Dail Eireann. Continue reading →

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Shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 154-seat Dail (updated based on definitive Census 2011 figures)

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th March 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published in the next few weeks following the publication today by the Central Statistics Office of definitive population figures for Census 2011. This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 154 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail. Continue reading →

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Shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 160-seat Dail (updated based on definitive Census 2011 figures)

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th March 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published in the coming weeks after the publication of final/definitive population statistics for Census 2011 by the Central Statistics Office today.

This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 160 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail and in light of the provisional Census 2011 population levels published by the CSO last year. While the Commission has a range of options to choose from between 153 and 160 in terms of seat numbers for the next Dail, the likelihood is they may opt for a seat tally towards the upper range of this as continued population growth may require seat tallies to be constantly changing if they opt for a seat tally at the lower end of this scale.

The key thing that the Commission will be watching for in this review are constituencies whose population per TD ratios fall outside the 5% variance limit – that is, whose population per TD ratios are either more than 5% above, or below, the state average for this (in the case of a 160-seat Dail, the state average would be 28,677 people per TD). In these cases, the Commission must consider whether they need to make changes to the boundaries/seat numbers for these constituencies. On past precedents, they may opt not to make changes if the level of variance is not much higher than this 5% limit (as happened in the case of Cavan Monaghan in both the 2004 and 2007 revisions) but they must make changes if the level of variance exceeds 7.89% – the maximum level of variance permitted by past commissions (Mayo East in the 1983 revisions).

So what might happen to our current constituencies in the light of the decision to reduce the number of Dail seats and the population changes outlined in the definitive 2011 Census population by area figures, if the Constituency Commission were to opt for a 160-seat Dail Eireann?

Continue reading →

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Levels of variance per Dail constituency based on definitive Census 2011 population figures

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, March 29 2011

The definitive Census 2011 population figures have been published today. Election boundary changes (for general and European elections) will be made on the basis of these, but this time are taking place in the context of a decision by government to advise a reduction in Dail seat numbers by between 6 (160 seats) and 13 (153 seats). So what do these population figures mean in terms of which constituencies may, or may not, be likely to have their election boundaries changed following on the upcoming Consituency Commission report, especially given that this body effectively will have eight different options in terms of total Dail seat numbers to choose from? The following document, which outlines the degree to which each constituency’s population per TD ratio will vary (in percentage terms) from the state average for each of the different seat number options open to the Commission, should help in regard to this.

Extent to which constituencies’ population per TD ratios vary from state average for different seat number options (and likelihood of boundary changes being made to these – as highlighted in yellow/blue)

What is evident from this analysis is that the main driver of change in relation to the redrawing of Dail election boundaries this time will probably be more so the decision to reduce Dail seat numbers over and above those changes required by differential levels of population change within the state. Had the number of seats remained at 166, changes to constituency boundaries would have been absolutely necessary in just 12% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 7.89%) and would have been probable in a further 21% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 5% but not 7.89%). When you are faced with a 160-seat option (the largest option open to the Constituency Commission), changes to constituency boundaries would now be absolutely necessary in 23% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 7.89%) and would be probable in a further 26% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 5% but not 7.89%). The level of changes required further increases in line with decisions to reduce Dail seat number by even higher levels and for a 153-seat option (the smallest seat number option open to the Constituency Commission), changes to constituency boundaries would now be absolutely necessary in 49% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 7.89%) and would be probable in a further 23% of cases (where level of variance exceeds 5% but not 7.89%).

One interesting point to note is that if the population increase between the 2011 Census and the next census in 2016 proved to be exactly the same as that between 2006 and 2011 the population in the Republic of Ireland would then stand at 4,965,286. Given the requirement in the Constitution that there be one TD for every 30,000 people (a factor that limited the possible reduction in Dail seat for the 2011-12 Constituency Commission revision to a range between 6 and 13, as the smallest number of Dail seats you can have with a population of 4,588,292 is 153), the smallest number of Dail seats that the Commission would be able to choose in the next revision would be 166 based on aprojected 2016 population figure of 4,965,286, which of course is the current seat level in Dail Eireann.

It is also worth noting that based on the cubic root rule, the idea parliament size for a population of 4,588,292 would be…166 seats.

Given the impressively small level of variation between the provisional (based on enumerator returns) and definitive population figures for the constituencies, my earlier posts (which were based on the provisional figures) as to what might happen in relation to decisions to be taken by the Constituency Commission in relation to changes to Dail election boundaries still largely hold true. But I have updated these to take account of the newer, and definitive, Census 2011 population figures. A more detailed version of this post may be viewed at the Ireland After NAMA blog.

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Thoughts on shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 158-seat Dail

Posted on February 23, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd February 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published some weeks after the final/definitive population by area statistics for Census 2011 are published by the Central Statistics Office on 26th April 2012.

This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 158 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail and in light of the provisional Census 2011 population levels published by the CSO last year. While the Commission has a range of options to choose from between 153 and 160 in terms of seat numbers for the next Dail, the likelihood is they may opt for a seat tally towards the upper range of this as continued population growth may require seat tallies to be constantly changing if they opt for a seat tally at the lower end of this scale. With a referendum pending on the abolition of the Seanad also, this might also persuade the Commission to not take a more radical approach in terms of reducing the number of seats in the Dail.

The key thing that the Commission will be watching for in this review are constituencies whose population per TD ratios fall outside the 5% variance limit – that is, whose population per TD ratios are either more than 5% above, or below, the state average for this (in the case of a 158-seat Dail, the state average would be 28,995 people per TD). In these cases, the Commission must consider whether they need to make changes to the boundaries/seat numbers for these constituencies. On past precedents, they may opt not to make changes if the level of variance is not much higher than this 5% limit (as happened in the case of Cavan Monaghan in both the 2004 and 2007 revisions) but they must make changes if the level of variance exceeds 7.89% – the maximum level of variance permitted by past commissions (Mayo East in the 1983 revisions).

So what might happen to our current constituencies in the light of the decision to reduce the number of Dail seats and the population changes outlined in the provisional 2011 Census population by area figures, if the Commission opt for a 158-seat Dail?

Continue reading →

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Thoughts on shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 156-seat Dail

Posted on February 22, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st February 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published some weeks after the final/definitive population by area statistics for Census 2011 are published by the Central Statistics Office on 26th April 2012.

This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 156 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail and in light of the provisional Census 2011 population levels published by the CSO last year. While the Commission has a range of options to choose from between 153 and 160 in terms of seat numbers for the next Dail, the likelihood is they may opt for a seat tally towards the upper range of this as continued population growth may require seat tallies to be constantly changing if they opt for a seat tally at the lower end of this scale. That said, if the Commission feels that they need to be seen to be making a conscious effort to reduce seat numbers they may well opt to reduce seat numbers by ten and go for a 156-seat Dail.

The key thing that the Commission will be watching for in this review are constituencies whose population per TD ratios fall outside the 5% variance limit – that is, whose population per TD ratios are either more than 5% above, or below, the state average for this (in the case of a 156-seat Dail, the state average would be 29,367 people per TD). In these cases, the Commission must consider whether they need to make changes to the boundaries/seat numbers for these constituencies. On past precedents, they may opt not to make changes if the level of variance is not much higher than this 5% limit (as happened in the case of Cavan Monaghan in both the 2004 and 2007 revisions) but they must make changes if the level of variance exceeds 7.89% – the maximum level of variance permitted by past commissions (Mayo East in the 1983 revisions).

So what might happen to our current constituencies in the light of the decision to reduce the number of Dail seats and the population changes outlined in the provisional 2011 Census population by area figures, if the Commission opt for a 156-seat Dail?

Continue reading →

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Thoughts on shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 154-seat Dail

Posted on February 21, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st February 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published some weeks after the final/definitive population by area statistics for Census 2011 are published by the Central Statistics Office on 26th April 2012.

This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 154 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail and in light of the provisional Census 2011 population levels published by the CSO last year. While the Commission has a range of options to choose from between 153 and 160 in terms of seat numbers for the next Dail, the likelihood is they may opt for a seat tally towards the upper range of this as continued population growth may require seat tallies to be constantly changing if they opt for a seat tally at the lower end of this scale. This scenario has been considered in the previous post, so this post will instead consider what might happen if the Commission were to opt for a number at the lower end of this scale, say 154 seats.

As noted earlier, the key thing that the Commission will be watching for in this review are constituencies whose population per TD ratios fall outside the 5% variance limit – that is, whose population per TD ratios are either more than 5% above, or below, the state average for this (in the case of a 154-seat Dail, the state average would be 29,749 people per TD). In these cases, the Commission must consider whether they need to make changes to the boundaries/seat numbers for these constituencies. On past precedents, they may opt not to make changes if the level of variance is not much higher than this 5% limit (as happened in the case of Cavan Monaghan in both the 2004 and 2007 revisions) but they must make changes if the level of variance exceeds 7.89% – the maximum level of variance permitted by past commissions (Mayo East in the 1983 revisions).

So what might happen to our current constituencies in the light of the decision to reduce the number of Dail seats and the population changes outlined in the provisional 2011 Census population by area figures, if the Commission opt for a 154-seat Dail?

Continue reading →

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Thoughts on shape of new general election boundaries if the Constituency Commission opt for a 160-seat Dail

Posted on February 21, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th February 2012

A new Constituency Commission report on election boundaries (for general and European elections) is likely to be published some weeks after the final/definitive population by area statistics for Census 2011 are published by the Central Statistics Office on 26th April 2012.

This post will consider what might happen our current constituency configurations if a 160 seat tally was agreed on for the next Dail and in light of the provisional Census 2011 population levels published by the CSO last year. While the Commission has a range of options to choose from between 153 and 160 in terms of seat numbers for the next Dail, the likelihood is they may opt for a seat tally towards the upper range of this as continued population growth may require seat tallies to be constantly changing if they opt for a seat tally at the lower end of this scale.

The key thing that the Commission will be watching for in this review are constituencies whose population per TD ratios fall outside the 5% variance limit – that is, whose population per TD ratios are either more than 5% above, or below, the state average for this (in the case of a 160-seat Dail, the state average would be 28,633 people per TD). In these cases, the Commission must consider whether they need to make changes to the boundaries/seat numbers for these constituencies. On past precedents, they may opt not to make changes if the level of variance is not much higher than this 5% limit (as happened in the case of Cavan Monaghan in both the 2004 and 2007 revisions) but they must make changes if the level of variance exceeds 7.89% – the maximum level of variance permitted by past commissions (Mayo East in the 1983 revisions).

So what might happen to our current constituencies in the light of the decision to reduce the number of Dail seats and the population changes outlined in the provisional 2011 Census population by area figures, if the Commission opt for a 160-seat Dail?

Continue reading →

Posted in Constituency Commission, Constituency information, Election boundaries | Tagged , | 3 Comments