Adrian Kavanagh, 8th March 2011

In a previous post, I outlined the candidates who topped the polls in their constituencies in the 2007 General Election and queried what their fate would be in the 2011 contest. This post will outline what happened these candidates in this election. The following two tables shows how each of 2007’s poll toppers, or rather those who contested the 2011 election, fared in their respective constituencies.

In all, only 8 of those who topped the poll in 2007 managed to repeat that feat in the 2011 election. This amounted to Fianna Fail leader, Micheal Martin and his Limerick-based party colleague, Niall Collins (who was subsequently the last person to be elected in that constituency) – the only 2007 Fianna Fail poll topper to manage to repeat their 2007 poll topping performance – and the six non-Fianna Fail poll toppers from 2007. Of the remaining 36 poll toppers from 2007 – all of whom were Fianna Fail candidates – 10 did not contest this election (including the late Seamus Brennan who passed away in 2008), 12 lost their seats and one, Seamus Kirk, was automatically re-elected by virtue of holding the post of Ceann Comhairle.

The most successful of 2007’s poll toppers was Enda Kenny, who managed to improve on his 2007 vote tally by 19% in the 2011 contest, followed closely by Labour’s Longford-Westmeath deputy, Willie Penrose, who improved on his 2007 number of votes by 18%. Only three other 2007 poll toppers improved on their number of votes in this election -Michael Lowry, Tom Hayes and Richard Bruton – although the drop in Jimmy Deenihan and Joe McHugh’s number of votes can be explained by these candidates having taken on running mates in the 2011 contest whereas they had been the only Fine Gael candidates in their constituency in 2007.

The least successful of the 2007 poll toppers was Conor Lenihan, whose number of votes fell by 73%, and Dick Roche, who was in 10th place when he was eliminated during the Wicklow count. The percentage loss in Roche support relative to 2007 was 62%, which was actually smaller than that experienced by Michael Kennedy (68%) in Dublin North and even Willie O’Dea (65%) in Limerick City; the extent of both these candidates’ loss of votes was related in part to boundary changes affecting their respective constituencies. O’Dea did manage to hold his seat in Limerick City, reflecting the huge personal vote he had won in 2007.