Predicting 2014 Local Election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls employing a constituency-level analysis

Adrian Kavanagh, 23 July 2013 

This post will attempt to ascertain what different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might be following next year’s City and County Council elections on the basis of national support figures associated with recent opinion polls, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political Forum website, which attempts to predict Dáil seat numbers on the basis of such poll figures.

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Rationale behind these models: The analysis used here is similar to posts on The Irish Politics Forum which have applied this constituency level analysis to estimate potential general election seat numbers from different opinion poll figures, based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in previous elections) – something that will not be possible with this particular analysis. This analysis attempts to estimate what party seat levels would be across the different City and County Councils in the state, should such national support trends in opinion polls be replicated at next year’s local elections.

What is the big idea lying behind this research? The proportion of seats won by parties in Irish general, European and local elections does not tend to measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference vote (although the system is decidedly more proportional than its UK counterpart), mainly because party’s first preference votes need to be filtered through the system of Irish electoral constituencies. In order to address this question, I attempt to estimate what party first preference votes would be in different constituencies, assuming similar (proportional) change in party vote shares in all constituencies. How does this work? Well, for instance, Labour’s share of the vote is estimated in this poll to now stand at just five-ninths of the level of support that the party won at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael’s vote share would stand at four-fifths the party’s level of support won in these elections, Fianna Fáil’s vote share would stand at eight-sevenths the party’s level of support won in these elections while Sinn Féin support levels are estimated to be two and three-fifths the vote share that the party won at the 2009 City and County Council elections. So for any electoral area, for instance, the Labour support levels would be estimated at five-ninths of the percentage support levels achieved by the party in 2009 in that (local election) constituency and the Fine Gael support level would be estimated at four-fifths the 2009 percentage Fine Gael support levels.

This of course is a very rough model, and ignores the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, even within specific provinces or regions. An attempt has been made to take account of the impact that boundary changes/territory transfers, brought in by the Local Electoral Area Boundary Committee Report 2013, would have on vote share, as well as the changing numbers of seats associated with the different local election constituencies/local electoral areas. Given the lack of tallies for the 2009 local electoral contests, the calculation of the base, 2009 support level, figures for the different constituency units is not as accurate as one would wish. This is not an issue for those counties/local authority areas where little or no change has occurred in relation to local election boundaries (such as Cork City and Fingal) or where new local election constituency units are largely drawn up on the basis of an amalgamation of the pre-existing units (as in the case of Carlow). But where significant territory transfers have taken place, the calculation of the base (2009) support level figures for the new constituency units involves a degree of guesstimating and the individual constituency-level predictions are less reliable in these cases. Based on these estimated figures, I proceed to estimate the destination of seats in the different constituencies in each of the different region/provinces and then to aggregate these to complete the national estimates.

This analysis is based on the assumption of universal swings to/from parties along a similar line to the national trends suggested in the poll figures. But, in addition to the other provisos not earlier in this post, it is also worth noting that there are areas that can defy such national trends. A good example of such an area would be Westmeath, where support trends in some recent general and local elections have gone against the over-riding trend associated with those contests, as evidenced in the increased support for Labour’s Willie Penrose in the 1997 General Election and the increased support for Fine Gael’s Paul McGrath in the 2002 General Election, as well as the strong performance by Fianna Fail in Westmeath at the most recent (2009) local election contest.

Due to unusually high/low support levels for some parties or political groupings in the previous election, the model may throw up occasional constituency predictions that are unlikely to pan out in a “real election”, but the estimates here cannot be seen as highly accurate estimates of support levels at the constituency level as in a “real election” party support changes will vary significantly across constituency given uneven geographical shifts in support levels. For instance, while Sinn Fein won just over seven percent of the national vote at the 2009 local elections, there were a number of electoral areas in which the party polled exceptionally well (such as those in Monaghan County, the Listowel and Tralee electoral areas in Kerry and a number of the more working class electoral areas in Dublin). If the level of swing to Sinn Fein suggested by polls in 2012 and 2013 is applied to these cases, this would make for exceptionally high constituency support predictions and seat estimates for the party in these cases. This scenario may well not pan out in the actual election (indeed the party might not run as many candidates as the seats being assigned to it in some of these stronger electoral areas) – the party vote may not be as high as the model is suggesting, with this being offset by stronger Sinn Fein performances in electoral areas in which the party did not do as well in (or did not contest) at the 2009 Local Elections.

There is also a problem associated with areas that were not contested by some of the smaller parties, such as Labour, Sinn Fein and the Green Party, in the 2009 contest. By default, the model will produce a 0% support estimate for such areas, if the baseline 2009 support is estimated at 0%. To (partly) correct this, I have been allocating 2009 party support estimates for these different parties in these “missing” electoral areas, with this estimate being calculated from the smallest level of support won by those parties/groupings in similar sized constituency areas (i.e. areas with same number of seats) in the 2009 contest. This approach has been used for the second and third set of analyses in this post.

The ultimate aim of the models are to get an overall, national-level, estimate of seat numbers and this is based on the proviso that an over-prediction in a number of local election constituencies will be offset by under-prediction in other constituencies. The idea here is that cases of areas/counties where too many seats/much support is being assigned to a party will be offset by other areas/counties where not enough seats/much support is being assigned to that party. NOTE: This model, it must be stressed, is not aiming to glean 100% accurate predictions as to party support/seat levels in the different local election electoral areas (or even at the City/County level). (The analysis may offer some pointers as to what party’s potential support levels would be in these constituencies.) The sole purpose of these constituency-level estimates is for these to be used as a means of estimating what overall party/grouping seat levels would be at the national level if opinion poll support levels were replicated at the actual elections. With this in mind, keep the following health warnings in mind:

Some Major Health Warnings: It is worth noting that people tend to be more focused on voting for candidates in local elections than they are in general elections and this emphasis on candidate-voting, as opposed to voting for political parties, will impact on local election support levels for the different parties also. For instance, the presence of an exceptionally popular local candidate on a party ticket will push up support levels for that party up above the expected levels that would be predicted in these models. The importance of candidate voting may also affect the base levels (2009) of support for different parties in certain constituencies, with a knock on effect on the predicted party support levels in those constituencies.  For instance if strong candidates who polled well in 2009 have subsequently been elected/co-opted to Dail Eireann, Seanad Eireann or the European Parliament (and a later post has shown that a significant number of poll toppers at these local elections went on to achieve success at the general elections of 2011, while some others have now retired), they will not be able to contest the local elections in 2014. Hence, the party support level (2009 base level) may be potentially lower than the figures used in this model, meaning that the constituency support estimates are hence over-estimated. By contrast, the inclusion of a strong candidate, who did not contest the 2009 elections, on a ticket may push up that party’s support level to a higher level than might be expected. This can be seen in the case of the 2004 local elections where a number of strong Fine Gael performances arose because constituencies were being contested by former (and in most cases, future) party TDs who had lost their seats at the 2002 General Election. By contrast, due to the abolition of the dual mandate ahead of those elections, Fianna Fail TDs were not allowed to contest these elections and the drop in party support/seat levels at these elections could be in part attributed to this factor. In a similar vein, defections from different political parties will have an impact on those parties’ base levels of support in the local election constituencies/electoral areas concerned. For instance, Labour hopes of retaining their seats in Wicklow, for instance, will have been undermined – over and above what is being suggested in this model – by the decision of some of their Councillors to resign from the party and join the independent ranks,  as also evidenced in the resignations of a number of Councillors from Fianna Fail in the lead up to General Election 2011 (involving electoral areas such as Athlone (Westmeath), Killarney (Kerry) and Edenderry (Offaly)) and of a number of Fine Gael Councillors in Roscommon County.

Furthermore, as in keeping with second order election models, some Fine Gael and Labour supporters, who may not be satisfied with their parties’ performances in government, may use mid-term elections such as local elections to register a “safe” protest against their own by party by voting for other parties or by not opting to vote at all. (For some voters, it should be added, local elections may well be as important as, or even more important than, the “first order” general election contests.) Support levels for these parties could well, hence, be lower at a local election contest than they are in opinion polls being taken at the time of these elections – the same might apply to parties/grouping whose main support grounds tend to be less likely to turn out to vote as compared with other parties/groupings’ supporters.

All in all, the personnel contesting the upcoming local elections of May 23rd 2014 will be rather different to those who contested the preceding elections in 2009 and this will have a bearing on likely party support levels, given the impact that candidate factors and local factor have on party support levels in these contests.

Furthermore given the volume of boundary changes involving local election constituencies, the 2009 base estimates of party support are not as accurate as I would like these to be, given that party support levels have had to be approximated in cases where a lack of tally data has militated against more accurate measures being calculated.

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The general trend in opinion polls in the last few months of 2013 was one that strongly indicated an improvement in Fianna Fail support levels and fortunes relative to the 2011 General Election, mainly at the expense of the government parties. However, it is worth noting that the Fianna Fail support levels in some polls were on a par with, or at times even lower, than the level of support that party won in at the 2009 Local Elections. Support levels for Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping were also seen to be on the rise in recent polls, but it is worth noting that the latter grouping also tends to win relatively high support levels at local election contests, as indeed was also the case in the 2009 contest.

The Paddy Power-Red C poll of 7th November 2013 – pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved fortunes for the opposition parties and groupings and of declining support for the government parties.  This puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the previous Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 25% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 1%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 253, Fine Gael 266, Sinn Fein 127, Labour 65, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 237. But the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 24th November 2013 brought some better news for the government parties, with their combined support levels seven percentage points higher than the Paddy Power-Red C poll. This puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 29% (NC), Fianna Fail 22% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 2%), Labour 12% (up 3%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 224, Fine Gael 311, Sinn Fein 125, Labour 94, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 197.

The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of 7th July 2013 – pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved Fianna Fail (and Sinn Féin) fortunes and of declining support for the government parties, but especially Labour.  The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (7th July 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 26% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour 8% (down 3%), Green Party, Independents and Others 19% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 305, Fine Gael 275, Sinn Fein 169, Labour 45, Green Party 8, Independents and Others 147. 

Some other polls, have however, been more favourable to the government parties and for the sake of balance I am updating this post to take account of these. Indeed one such poll was the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (13th October 2013),  which estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 27%, Sinn Fein 19%, Labour 9%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 17%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 286, Fine Gael 280, Sinn Fein 162, Labour 63, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 158. But while the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll did estimate support for the government parties at a higher level than recent such polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C polls have consistently tended to rate support for the government parties at higher levels than the estimates associated with the other polling companies. One of the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C polls was published on 15th September 2013 and this estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as followsFine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 23%, Sinn Fein 17%, Labour 10%, Green Party 4%, Independents and Others 19%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fine Gael 293, Fianna Fail 242, Sinn Fein 143, Labour 76, Green Party 10, Independents and Others 184. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll was published on 27th September 2013 and this estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 23%, Fianna Fail 29%, Sinn Fein 17%, Labour 9%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 20%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fine Gael 310, Fianna Fail 238, Sinn Fein 146, Labour 64, Green Party 10, Independents and Others 191.

 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (24th November 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 31% 40% 15% 2% 8% 6%
Muine Bheag 20% 36% 20% 3% 3% 19%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 36% 39% 1% 2% 17% 5%
Ballyjamesduff 28% 46% 1% 1% 21% 4%
Cavan-Belturbert 26% 38% 4% 0% 24% 7%
Ennis 23% 34% 1% 3% 2% 37%
Killaloe 33% 39% 12% 1% 2% 14%
Shannon 18% 34% 5% 1% 2% 41%
West Clare 46% 28% 1% 3% 2% 21%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 20% 45% 10% 3% 13% 9%
Bandon-Kinsale 23% 40% 14% 0% 15% 8%
Blarney-Macrooom 22% 37% 16% 2% 13% 10%
Cobh 13% 25% 10% 2% 19% 30%
East Cork 13% 25% 10% 2% 19% 30%
Fermoy 30% 35% 13% 0% 10% 11%
Kanturk-Mallow 19% 37% 11% 0% 12% 21%
West Cork 29% 39% 5% 2% 9% 16%
Donegal 24% 29% 3% 0% 13% 31%
Glenties 23% 13% 7% 0% 29% 28%
Inishowen 25% 29% 4% 2% 32% 7%
Letterkenny 35% 22% 3% 1% 16% 22%
Stranorlar 24% 22% 9% 0% 34% 10%
Balbriggan 9% 15% 26% 7% 8% 35%
Castleknock 18% 22% 14% 7% 7% 32%
Howth-Malahide 16% 22% 24% 6% 6% 26%
Mulhuddart 16% 16% 21% 0% 22% 24%
Swords 14% 21% 21% 3% 10% 32%
Clondalkin 14% 17% 16% 3% 33% 16%
Lucan 12% 33% 15% 4% 8% 29%
Tallaght Central 9% 15% 20% 1% 27% 28%
Tallaght South 11% 7% 18% 4% 51% 9%
Templeogue Terenure 17% 29% 18% 3% 10% 24%
Rathfarnham 23% 36% 18% 5% 9% 9%
Blackrock 17% 39% 20% 6% 2% 16%
Dun Laoghaire 10% 34% 14% 5% 3% 35%
Dundrum 16% 32% 17% 6% 8% 20%
Glencullen-Sandyford 19% 32% 29% 5% 13% 2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 11% 29% 30% 4% 8% 18%
Stillorgan 17% 33% 13% 5% 3% 29%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 20% 39% 16% 1% 4% 21%
Ballinasloe 21% 39% 1% 0% 24% 15%
Connemara 25% 23% 1% 1% 18% 31%
Loughrea 17% 36% 2% 2% 2% 42%
Tuam 24% 39% 12% 1% 3% 21%
Killarney 17% 15% 10% 0% 7% 51%
Listowel 22% 24% 14% 0% 38% 2%
South and West Kerry 32% 38% 4% 2% 2% 22%
Tralee 17% 16% 20% 1% 38% 7%
Athy 30% 34% 26% 1% 2% 7%
Celbridge 12% 19% 31% 5% 2% 32%
Maynooth (Clane) 26% 28% 12% 2% 4% 29%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 26% 27% 15% 2% 9% 21%
Naas 19% 31% 18% 7% 3% 22%
Castlecomer 20% 40% 20% 1% 8% 12%
Kilkenny City-East 30% 32% 10% 4% 6% 19%
Kilkenny City-West 22% 31% 19% 5% 9% 15%
Piltown 25% 47% 14% 1% 8% 5%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 37% 36% 7% 0% 9% 11%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 31% 32% 3% 1% 13% 21%
Portlaoise 20% 35% 4% 0% 28% 13%
Ballinamore 24% 33% 2% 1% 36% 4%
Carrick on Shannon 33% 23% 5% 2% 8% 30%
Manorhamilton 21% 37% 1% 1% 24% 16%
Ballymahon 25% 46% 2% 1% 6% 21%
Granard 39% 43% 2% 1% 3% 12%
Longford Town 26% 30% 2% 1% 6% 35%
Ardee 21% 27% 5% 4% 28% 14%
Drogheda 18% 25% 18% 3% 26% 9%
Dundalk Carlingford 19% 18% 2% 4% 42% 15%
Dundalk South 18% 17% 3% 9% 35% 19%
Ballina 28% 44% 4% 0% 12% 12%
Castlebar 23% 33% 3% 0% 14% 25%
Claremorris 27% 42% 1% 0% 13% 17%
West Mayo 24% 41% 3% 0% 20% 12%
Ashbourne 23% 24% 10% 1% 11% 30%
Ratoath 27% 26% 10% 1% 4% 33%
Kells 35% 33% 7% 0% 22% 2%
Navan 21% 22% 8% 2% 29% 19%
Laytown-Bettystown 18% 23% 13% 3% 12% 30%
Trim 26% 32% 11% 1% 10% 21%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 28% 25% 1% 2% 42% 2%
Ballybay-Clones 22% 26% 1% 2% 43% 5%
Monaghan 12% 15% 1% 2% 52% 17%
Edenderry 33% 19% 5% 1% 7% 36%
Tullamore 28% 26% 5% 0% 13% 27%
Birr 32% 29% 2% 0% 2% 35%
Boyle 25% 40% 1% 0% 10% 24%
Roscommon 21% 29% 1% 0% 8% 40%
Athlone (Roscommon) 30% 29% 1% 1% 7% 32%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 23% 35% 3% 0% 12% 27%
Sligo 22% 35% 9% 0% 21% 13%
Nenagh 27% 24% 10% 0% 10% 30%
Templemore-Thurles 29% 21% 10% 0% 2% 38%
Carrick on Suir 22% 40% 10% 0% 9% 19%
Clonmel 26% 30% 12% 2% 2% 27%
Cashel-Tipperary 25% 43% 8% 0% 3% 21%
Athlone 38% 38% 8% 0% 12% 4%
Mullingar-Coole 30% 27% 28% 1% 7% 7%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 32% 29% 25% 1% 5% 8%
Enniscorthy 24% 37% 10% 0% 11% 17%
Gorey 28% 34% 10% 0% 13% 14%
New Ross 33% 26% 6% 4% 25% 5%
Wexford 17% 26% 18% 2% 14% 23%
Arklow 32% 29% 23% 1% 5% 10%
Baltinglass 14% 28% 6% 2% 16% 35%
Bray 14% 16% 15% 4% 25% 25%
Greystones 13% 54% 15% 4% 7% 8%
Wicklow 23% 23% 22% 5% 26% 2%
Cork City North Central 16% 12% 15% 1% 15% 40%
Cork City North East 16% 23% 15% 4% 16% 26%
Cork City North West 15% 10% 11% 1% 37% 26%
Cork City South Central 17% 14% 20% 3% 22% 25%
Cork City South East 17% 34% 11% 2% 15% 21%
Cork City South West 20% 32% 17% 4% 24% 3%
Ballymun 19% 16% 30% 2% 25% 9%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 8% 10% 18% 1% 20% 43%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 14% 13% 22% 0% 42% 9%
Cabra-Finglas 21% 9% 16% 2% 35% 16%
Clontarf 19% 29% 15% 2% 8% 28%
Crumlin-Kimmage 11% 9% 26% 4% 20% 31%
North Inner City 7% 6% 18% 3% 28% 37%
Rathgar-Rathmines 17% 26% 30% 7% 5% 14%
Pembroke-South Dock 13% 22% 30% 4% 15% 16%
Galway City Central 25% 19% 28% 4% 5% 19%
Galway City East 20% 21% 19% 2% 10% 29%
Galway City West 14% 19% 8% 6% 4% 49%
Limerick City North 13% 27% 13% 3% 18% 27%
Limerick City East 22% 41% 12% 1% 4% 19%
Limerick City West 18% 42% 15% 1% 4% 20%
Adare-Rathkeale 29% 47% 11% 0% 2% 11%
Newcastle West 31% 54% 7% 0% 6% 2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 38% 35% 13% 1% 4% 9%
Dungarvan-Lismore 21% 41% 15% 0% 16% 6%
Comeragh 33% 47% 11% 1% 2% 5%
Tramore-Waterford City West 12% 26% 12% 1% 21% 28%
Waterford City South 11% 20% 11% 1% 18% 40%
Waterford City East 14% 27% 10% 2% 13% 34%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 3 5 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 2 0 0 1
Bailieborough-Cootehill 2 3 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 3 0 0 1 0
Ennis 2 3 0 0 0 3
Killaloe 2 3 0 0 0 1
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 4 2 0 0 0 2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 2 5 1 0 1 1
Bandon-Kinsale 2 2 1 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 1 3 1 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 1 0 1 2
East Cork 1 2 0 0 1 2
Fermoy 2 3 1 0 0 0
Kanturk-Mallow 1 2 0 0 1 2
West Cork 3 4 0 0 0 1
Donegal 1 2 0 0 1 2
Glenties 1 1 0 0 2 2
Inishowen 3 3 0 0 3 0
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 3 0
Balbriggan 1 1 2 0 0 4
Castleknock 1 2 1 0 0 3
Howth-Malahide 2 2 1 0 0 3
Mulhuddart 1 1 2 0 2 2
Swords 1 2 2 0 1 3
Clondalkin 1 2 1 0 3 1
Lucan 1 3 1 0 0 3
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 0 1 0 4 0
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 0 2
Rathfarnham 2 3 1 0 0 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 3 1 0 0 3
Dundrum 1 3 1 0 0 2
Glencullen-Sandyford 1 3 2 0 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 1 2 1 0 0 2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 1 3 1 0 0 2
Ballinasloe 1 2 0 0 2 1
Connemara 2 2 0 0 2 3
Loughrea 1 3 0 0 0 4
Tuam 2 4 1 0 0 2
Killarney 2 1 0 0 0 5
Listowel 1 2 1 0 3 0
South and West Kerry 3 4 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 1 2 0 4 0
Athy 2 2 2 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 2 3 1 0 0 3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 2 3 1 0 1 2
Naas 2 3 2 0 0 2
Castlecomer 1 3 1 0 0 1
Kilkenny City-East 2 3 0 0 0 1
Kilkenny City-West 2 2 1 0 0 1
Piltown 2 3 1 0 0 0
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 3 3 0 0 0 0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 1 3 0 0 2 1
Ballinamore 2 2 0 0 2 0
Carrick on Shannon 2 2 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 1 3 0 0 1 1
Ballymahon 2 3 0 0 0 1
Granard 3 3 0 0 0 0
Longford Town 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ardee 1 2 0 0 2 1
Drogheda 2 2 2 0 3 1
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 1 1 0 0 3 2
Ballina 2 4 0 0 1 1
Castlebar 2 3 0 0 1 2
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 1 1
Ashbourne 1 2 0 0 1 2
Ratoath 2 2 0 0 0 3
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 2 0 0 2 1
Laytown-Bettystown 1 2 1 0 1 2
Trim 2 3 0 0 0 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 1 2 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 1 1 0 0 3 1
Edenderry 2 1 0 0 0 3
Tullamore 2 2 0 0 1 2
Birr 2 2 0 0 0 2
Boyle 1 3 0 0 0 2
Roscommon 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 3 0 0 1 2
Sligo 2 3 1 0 2 1
Nenagh 2 2 1 0 1 3
Templemore-Thurles 3 2 1 0 0 3
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 2 3 1 0 0 3
Cashel-Tipperary 2 4 0 0 0 1
Athlone 3 3 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 2 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 2 2 2 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 2 3 1 0 1 1
Gorey 2 3 1 0 1 1
New Ross 3 3 0 0 2 0
Wexford 2 3 2 0 1 2
Arklow 2 2 2 0 0 0
Baltinglass 1 2 0 0 1 2
Bray 1 1 1 0 3 2
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 0 0 1 3
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 1 1 0 1 1
Cork City South East 1 3 1 0 1 1
Cork City South West 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ballymun 1 1 3 0 2 0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 1 4
Beaumont-Donaghmede 2 1 2 0 3 1
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 1 0 3 1
Clontarf 1 2 1 0 0 2
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 2 0 1 2
North Inner City 0 0 2 0 2 4
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 2 2 0 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 3 0 1 2
Galway City Central 2 1 2 0 0 1
Galway City East 1 2 1 0 0 2
Galway City West 1 1 0 0 0 4
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 1 2
Limerick City East 2 3 1 0 0 2
Limerick City West 1 3 1 0 0 2
Adare-Rathkeale 2 4 0 0 0 0
Newcastle West 2 4 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 3 3 1 0 0 0
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 4 1 0 1 0
Comeragh 2 4 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 1 2
Waterford City South 0 1 1 0 1 3
Waterford City East 1 3 0 0 1 3
Total 224 311 94 0 125 197

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael.

Total 224 311 94 0 125 197
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
  3% -9% -29% -100% 131% 45%
FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
DUBLIN 27 43 39 0 26 49
LEINSTER 80 100 30 0 35 48
MUNSTER 64 95 19 0 27 56
CONNACHT-ULSTER 53 73 6 0 37 44

On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 16%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 135% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 74%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 51% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 22%.

***********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Paddy Power-Red C (7th November 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
Carlow Town 35% 36% 11% 2% 9% 7%
Muine Bheag 22% 32% 16% 3% 4% 24%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 39% 33% 1% 2% 18% 6%
Ballyjamesduff 31% 40% 1% 1% 23% 4%
Cavan-Belturbert 29% 33% 3% 0% 26% 9%
Ennis 24% 28% 1% 3% 3% 42%
Killaloe 37% 34% 9% 1% 2% 17%
Shannon 19% 28% 3% 1% 2% 47%
West Clare 48% 23% 1% 3% 2% 24%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 23% 40% 8% 3% 15% 12%
Bandon-Kinsale 26% 36% 11% 0% 17% 10%
Blarney-Macrooom 26% 33% 12% 2% 14% 12%
Cobh 13% 21% 7% 2% 20% 35%
East Cork 13% 21% 7% 2% 20% 35%
Fermoy 34% 31% 10% 0% 11% 14%
Kanturk-Mallow 21% 32% 9% 0% 13% 25%
West Cork 31% 34% 4% 2% 10% 19%
Donegal 25% 24% 2% 0% 13% 35%
Glenties 23% 11% 5% 0% 29% 32%
Inishowen 27% 25% 3% 2% 34% 9%
Letterkenny 36% 18% 2% 1% 17% 26%
Stranorlar 26% 19% 7% 0% 36% 12%
Balbriggan 10% 13% 19% 7% 9% 42%
Castleknock 19% 18% 10% 7% 8% 38%
Howth-Malahide 18% 19% 18% 6% 7% 31%
Mulhuddart 17% 14% 16% 0% 24% 28%
Swords 15% 18% 16% 3% 10% 38%
Clondalkin 16% 15% 12% 3% 35% 20%
Lucan 13% 29% 11% 4% 8% 35%
Tallaght Central 10% 13% 15% 1% 28% 33%
Tallaght South 12% 6% 13% 4% 54% 11%
Templeogue Terenure 19% 25% 14% 3% 10% 30%
Rathfarnham 27% 33% 14% 5% 11% 11%
Blackrock 20% 36% 16% 6% 2% 20%
Dun Laoghaire 11% 29% 11% 5% 3% 42%
Dundrum 18% 29% 13% 6% 9% 24%
Glencullen-Sandyford 23% 30% 24% 5% 15% 2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 12% 27% 24% 5% 9% 23%
Stillorgan 19% 28% 10% 5% 3% 35%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 22% 35% 12% 1% 5% 26%
Ballinasloe 22% 33% 1% 0% 25% 18%
Connemara 25% 19% 1% 1% 18% 36%
Loughrea 17% 29% 2% 2% 2% 48%
Tuam 26% 34% 9% 1% 3% 26%
Killarney 18% 12% 7% 0% 7% 57%
Listowel 24% 21% 11% 0% 41% 2%
South and West Kerry 35% 32% 3% 2% 2% 26%
Tralee 19% 14% 16% 1% 41% 9%
Athy 35% 31% 21% 1% 2% 9%
Celbridge 13% 17% 24% 5% 2% 39%
Maynooth (Clane) 28% 24% 9% 2% 4% 34%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 29% 23% 11% 2% 9% 26%
Naas 21% 28% 14% 8% 3% 27%
Castlecomer 23% 37% 16% 1% 9% 15%
Kilkenny City-East 33% 28% 7% 4% 6% 23%
Kilkenny City-West 25% 27% 15% 5% 10% 18%
Piltown 29% 43% 11% 1% 9% 7%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 40% 31% 5% 0% 9% 13%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 32% 26% 2% 0% 13% 25%
Portlaoise 22% 30% 3% 0% 29% 15%
Ballinamore 27% 28% 1% 1% 38% 5%
Carrick on Shannon 35% 19% 3% 1% 8% 34%
Manorhamilton 22% 32% 1% 1% 25% 19%
Ballymahon 27% 39% 2% 1% 6% 25%
Granard 43% 37% 1% 1% 4% 14%
Longford Town 27% 25% 1% 1% 6% 40%
Ardee 23% 23% 4% 4% 30% 16%
Drogheda 21% 22% 14% 3% 28% 11%
Dundalk Carlingford 19% 15% 2% 4% 43% 18%
Dundalk South 18% 14% 2% 8% 36% 22%
Ballina 31% 39% 3% 0% 13% 14%
Castlebar 25% 28% 3% 0% 15% 30%
Claremorris 29% 36% 1% 0% 13% 20%
West Mayo 26% 35% 2% 0% 21% 15%
Ashbourne 25% 20% 8% 1% 11% 35%
Ratoath 28% 22% 7% 1% 4% 38%
Kells 39% 29% 6% 0% 24% 3%
Navan 22% 18% 5% 2% 30% 23%
Laytown-Bettystown 19% 20% 10% 3% 13% 36%
Trim 28% 28% 8% 1% 11% 25%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 30% 21% 1% 2% 44% 2%
Ballybay-Clones 24% 22% 1% 2% 45% 6%
Monaghan 13% 12% 1% 2% 53% 20%
Edenderry 34% 15% 4% 1% 7% 40%
Tullamore 30% 21% 3% 0% 14% 31%
Birr 33% 24% 1% 0% 2% 40%
Boyle 26% 34% 1% 0% 11% 28%
Roscommon 22% 24% 1% 0% 8% 45%
Athlone (Roscommon) 32% 24% 1% 1% 7% 36%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 25% 29% 2% 0% 12% 32%
Sligo 24% 31% 7% 0% 22% 15%
Nenagh 28% 20% 7% 0% 10% 34%
Templemore-Thurles 30% 17% 7% 0% 2% 43%
Carrick on Suir 25% 35% 8% 0% 10% 23%
Clonmel 28% 26% 9% 2% 2% 32%
Cashel-Tipperary 28% 37% 6% 0% 3% 25%
Athlone 43% 33% 6% 0% 13% 5%
Mullingar-Coole 34% 25% 22% 1% 8% 9%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 37% 26% 20% 1% 6% 10%
Enniscorthy 27% 33% 8% 0% 12% 21%
Gorey 31% 30% 7% 0% 14% 17%
New Ross 36% 22% 5% 4% 27% 6%
Wexford 18% 23% 14% 2% 15% 28%
Arklow 36% 26% 18% 1% 5% 13%
Baltinglass 15% 23% 4% 1% 16% 41%
Bray 15% 14% 11% 4% 27% 29%
Greystones 15% 50% 12% 4% 9% 11%
Wicklow 26% 21% 18% 5% 29% 2%
Cork City North Central 17% 10% 11% 1% 15% 46%
Cork City North East 17% 19% 11% 4% 17% 31%
Cork City North West 15% 8% 8% 1% 38% 30%
Cork City South Central 18% 12% 15% 3% 23% 30%
Cork City South East 19% 29% 8% 2% 16% 26%
Cork City South West 23% 29% 13% 4% 27% 3%
Ballymun 22% 14% 23% 2% 28% 12%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 8% 8% 13% 1% 20% 49%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 15% 12% 17% 0% 45% 11%
Cabra-Finglas 23% 8% 12% 2% 36% 19%
Clontarf 20% 25% 11% 2% 9% 33%
Crumlin-Kimmage 12% 8% 19% 4% 21% 36%
North Inner City 7% 5% 13% 3% 29% 43%
Rathgar-Rathmines 19% 24% 24% 8% 6% 18%
Pembroke-South Dock 15% 20% 23% 4% 17% 20%
Galway City Central 29% 17% 22% 4% 5% 23%
Galway City East 22% 18% 14% 2% 10% 34%
Galway City West 14% 16% 5% 6% 4% 55%
Limerick City North 14% 23% 9% 3% 19% 33%
Limerick City East 25% 36% 9% 1% 5% 24%
Limerick City West 20% 38% 11% 1% 5% 25%
Adare-Rathkeale 32% 42% 8% 1% 2% 14%
Newcastle West 35% 49% 5% 0% 7% 3%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 43% 31% 10% 1% 4% 11%
Dungarvan-Lismore 25% 37% 12% 0% 18% 8%
Comeragh 38% 43% 9% 1% 3% 6%
Tramore-Waterford City West 13% 22% 9% 1% 22% 33%
Waterford City South 11% 16% 8% 1% 18% 45%
Waterford City East 15% 23% 7% 2% 14% 39%
24% 25% 9% 2% 16% 24%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 1 0 0 2
Bailieborough-Cootehill 3 2 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 2 3 0 0 0 3
Killaloe 3 2 0 0 0 1
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 4 2 0 0 0 2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 2 5 1 0 1 1
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 2 1 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 0 0 1 3
East Cork 1 2 0 0 1 2
Fermoy 3 2 0 0 0 1
Kanturk-Mallow 1 2 0 0 1 2
West Cork 3 3 0 0 1 1
Donegal 2 1 0 0 1 2
Glenties 1 1 0 0 2 2
Inishowen 3 2 0 0 3 1
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 2 1
Balbriggan 1 1 2 0 0 4
Castleknock 2 1 1 0 0 3
Howth-Malahide 2 2 1 0 0 3
Mulhuddart 2 1 1 0 2 2
Swords 1 2 1 0 1 4
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 3 2
Lucan 1 3 1 0 0 3
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 0 1 0 3 1
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 0 2
Rathfarnham 2 3 1 0 0 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 1 0 0 4
Dundrum 1 3 1 0 0 2
Glencullen-Sandyford 2 2 2 0 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 1 3 1 0 0 2
Ballinasloe 1 2 0 0 2 1
Connemara 2 2 0 0 2 3
Loughrea 1 2 0 0 0 5
Tuam 2 3 1 0 0 3
Killarney 2 1 0 0 0 5
Listowel 2 2 0 0 3 0
South and West Kerry 4 3 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 1 1 0 4 1
Athy 3 2 1 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 3 2 1 0 0 3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 1 0 1 2
Naas 2 3 1 0 0 3
Castlecomer 1 3 1 0 0 1
Kilkenny City-East 3 2 0 0 0 1
Kilkenny City-West 2 2 1 0 0 1
Piltown 2 3 1 0 0 0
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 3 2 0 0 0 1
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 2 2 0 0 2 1
Ballinamore 2 2 0 0 2 0
Carrick on Shannon 3 1 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 1 2 0 0 2 1
Ballymahon 2 3 0 0 0 1
Granard 3 2 0 0 0 1
Longford Town 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ardee 1 2 0 0 2 1
Drogheda 2 3 1 0 3 1
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 1 1 0 0 3 2
Ballina 3 3 0 0 1 1
Castlebar 2 2 0 0 1 3
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 1 1
Ashbourne 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ratoath 2 2 0 0 0 3
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 2 2
Laytown-Bettystown 1 1 1 0 1 3
Trim 2 2 0 0 1 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 2 1 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 1 1 0 0 3 1
Edenderry 2 1 0 0 0 3
Tullamore 2 2 0 0 1 2
Birr 2 1 0 0 0 3
Boyle 2 2 0 0 0 2
Roscommon 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 2 0 0 1 3
Sligo 2 3 0 0 2 2
Nenagh 3 2 0 0 1 3
Templemore-Thurles 3 2 0 0 0 4
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 3 2 1 0 0 3
Cashel-Tipperary 2 3 0 0 0 2
Athlone 3 3 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 2 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 3 2 1 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 2 3 0 0 1 2
Gorey 3 3 0 0 1 1
New Ross 4 2 0 0 2 0
Wexford 2 3 1 0 1 3
Arklow 2 2 1 0 0 1
Baltinglass 1 1 0 0 1 3
Bray 1 1 1 0 2 3
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 0 0 1 3
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 0 1 0 1 2
Cork City South East 1 3 0 0 1 2
Cork City South West 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ballymun 1 1 2 0 2 1
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 1 4
Beaumont-Donaghmede 2 1 2 0 3 1
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 1 0 3 1
Clontarf 1 2 0 0 0 3
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 1 3
North Inner City 0 0 1 0 3 4
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 2 2 0 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 0 1 2
Galway City Central 2 1 1 0 0 2
Galway City East 1 1 1 0 1 2
Galway City West 1 1 0 0 0 4
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 1 2
Limerick City East 2 3 1 0 0 2
Limerick City West 1 3 1 0 0 2
Adare-Rathkeale 2 3 0 0 0 1
Newcastle West 2 4 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 4 2 0 0 0 1
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 4 1 0 1 0
Comeragh 3 3 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 1 2
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 1 3
Waterford City East 1 1 0 0 1 3
Total 253 266 65 0 127 237
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
  16% -22% -51% -100% 135% 74%

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 16%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 135% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 74%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 51% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 22%.

FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
DUBLIN 30 39 31 0 26 57
LEINSTER 90 86 21 0 34 62
MUNSTER 74 83 9 0 28 65
CONNACHT-ULSTER 59 58 4 0 39 53

As the table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for close to half (31 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. But support trends in Dublin generally tend to be more volatile than in other parts of the state and Labour could be in even more serious trouble if the swing against the party proves to be stronger here than in other parts of the state, which could very well prove to be the case. 

**********************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown (7th July 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 40% 35% 10% 0% 10% 5%
Muine Bheag 29% 35% 15% 5% 0% 17%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 42% 31% 0% 3% 20% 4%
Ballyjamesduff 34% 38% 0% 0% 26% 3%
Cavan-Belturbert 32% 31% 3% 0% 29% 6%
Ennis 30% 30% 1% 5% 3% 30%
Killaloe 45% 36% 8% 0% 0% 11%
Shannon 26% 34% 3% 0% 0% 37%
West Clare 56% 23% 0% 5% 0% 16%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 26% 39% 7% 4% 17% 7%
Bandon-Kinsale 30% 35% 9% 0% 20% 6%
Blarney-Macrooom 29% 33% 10% 3% 16% 8%
Cobh 17% 23% 7% 4% 25% 25%
East Cork 17% 23% 7% 4% 25% 25%
Fermoy 39% 31% 9% 0% 13% 9%
Kanturk-Mallow 25% 34% 8% 0% 16% 17%
West Cork 36% 34% 3% 3% 11% 13%
Donegal 31% 25% 2% 0% 16% 25%
Glenties 28% 11% 4% 0% 35% 22%
Inishowen 30% 23% 2% 3% 37% 5%
Letterkenny 42% 18% 2% 2% 19% 17%
Stranorlar 29% 18% 6% 0% 40% 8%
Balbriggan 13% 14% 18% 12% 11% 30%
Castleknock 23% 20% 9% 12% 10% 26%
Howth-Malahide 23% 21% 17% 10% 8% 22%
Mulhuddart 21% 15% 15% 0% 30% 20%
Swords 19% 20% 15% 5% 13% 27%
Clondalkin 18% 15% 10% 5% 40% 13%
Lucan 17% 31% 10% 7% 10% 25%
Tallaght Central 13% 14% 14% 1% 35% 23%
Tallaght South 13% 6% 11% 6% 58% 7%
Templeogue Terenure 23% 27% 12% 4% 13% 20%
Rathfarnham 30% 32% 12% 8% 12% 7%
Blackrock 24% 38% 15% 10% 0% 14%
Dun Laoghaire 14% 33% 10% 8% 4% 31%
Dundrum 22% 29% 12% 10% 10% 16%
Glencullen-Sandyford 25% 29% 20% 8% 17% 1%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 15% 29% 22% 8% 11% 16%
Stillorgan 23% 31% 9% 9% 4% 25%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 28% 37% 11% 0% 6% 18%
Ballinasloe 26% 33% 0% 0% 29% 12%
Connemara 32% 20% 0% 0% 23% 25%
Loughrea 24% 35% 2% 3% 0% 37%
Tuam 33% 37% 8% 0% 4% 18%
Killarney 24% 15% 7% 1% 9% 44%
Listowel 26% 20% 9% 0% 45% 0%
South and West Kerry 41% 33% 3% 3% 3% 17%
Tralee 21% 13% 13% 2% 45% 6%
Athy 43% 33% 19% 0% 0% 6%
Celbridge 18% 20% 24% 9% 0% 30%
Maynooth (Clane) 37% 28% 9% 0% 0% 26%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 34% 24% 10% 3% 11% 17%
Naas 26% 30% 13% 13% 0% 19%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 46% 31% 5% 0% 11% 8%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 39% 27% 2% 0% 16% 17%
Portlaoise 25% 30% 2% 0% 34% 10%
Ballinamore 30% 27% 0% 0% 43% 0%
Carrick on Shannon 42% 20% 3% 2% 9% 24%
Manorhamilton 26% 31% 0% 2% 29% 12%
Ballymahon 33% 41% 2% 0% 7% 17%
Granard 50% 37% 0% 0% 4% 9%
Longford Town 35% 28% 1% 0% 7% 29%
Ardee 25% 22% 3% 7% 33% 10%
Drogheda 23% 22% 12% 5% 32% 7%
Dundalk Carlingford 21% 14% 1% 5% 47% 11%
Dundalk South 20% 14% 2% 12% 39% 13%
Ballina 36% 38% 2% 0% 14% 9%
Castlebar 30% 29% 2% 0% 18% 20%
Claremorris 35% 36% 0% 0% 16% 13%
West Mayo 30% 35% 2% 0% 24% 9%
Ashbourne 31% 22% 7% 2% 14% 24%
Ratoath 36% 24% 7% 1% 5% 27%
Kells 41% 26% 4% 0% 26% 2%
Navan 25% 18% 5% 3% 34% 15%
Laytown-Bettystown 24% 21% 9% 5% 16% 25%
Trim 34% 29% 7% 0% 13% 17%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 31% 19% 1% 3% 46% 1%
Ballybay-Clones 25% 20% 1% 3% 48% 3%
Monaghan 14% 12% 0% 3% 59% 12%
Edenderry 43% 17% 3% 0% 8% 29%
Tullamore 36% 22% 3% 0% 17% 21%
Birr 43% 27% 1% 0% 0% 29%
Boyle 32% 35% 0% 0% 13% 19%
Roscommon 29% 27% 0% 0% 11% 34%
Athlone (Roscommon) 40% 26% 0% 0% 9% 25%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 30% 31% 2% 0% 15% 22%
Sligo 28% 30% 6% 0% 26% 10%
Nenagh 35% 22% 7% 0% 12% 24%
Templemore-Thurles 41% 20% 7% 0% 0% 33%
Carrick on Suir 30% 36% 7% 0% 12% 16%
Clonmel 35% 28% 8% 3% 3% 22%
Cashel-Tipperary 36% 41% 6% 0% 0% 18%
Athlone 47% 31% 5% 0% 15% 3%
Mullingar-Coole 39% 25% 19% 2% 9% 6%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 43% 26% 17% 0% 7% 7%
Enniscorthy 32% 33% 7% 0% 14% 14%
Gorey 36% 30% 6% 0% 17% 11%
New Ross 38% 20% 4% 6% 28% 4%
Wexford 23% 24% 12% 4% 18% 19%
Arklow 42% 26% 16% 2% 6% 8%
Baltinglass 19% 25% 4% 3% 20% 29%
Bray 18% 14% 10% 7% 32% 19%
Greystones 17% 50% 10% 6% 10% 7%
Wicklow 28% 19% 14% 7% 31% 1%
Cork City North Central 22% 11% 11% 1% 20% 34%
Cork City North East 21% 20% 10% 7% 20% 21%
Cork City North West 18% 9% 7% 1% 45% 20%
Cork City South Central 22% 12% 13% 4% 28% 20%
Cork City South East 22% 30% 7% 4% 19% 17%
Cork City South West 25% 27% 11% 6% 30% 0%
Ballymun 25% 14% 20% 3% 32% 8%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 11% 10% 13% 3% 27% 37%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 17% 11% 14% 0% 51% 7%
Cabra-Finglas 26% 8% 10% 4% 41% 12%
Clontarf 25% 26% 10% 4% 11% 23%
Crumlin-Kimmage 15% 8% 18% 7% 27% 26%
North Inner City 9% 6% 12% 5% 37% 31%
Rathgar-Rathmines 23% 24% 21% 13% 7% 12%
Pembroke-South Dock 18% 20% 21% 7% 20% 13%
Galway City Central 34% 18% 19% 7% 6% 15%
Galway City East 27% 20% 13% 4% 13% 24%
Galway City West 19% 18% 5% 11% 5% 42%
Limerick City North 17% 24% 9% 4% 23% 23%
Limerick City East 30% 38% 8% 2% 6% 16%
Limerick City West 25% 41% 10% 0% 6% 18%
Adare-Rathkeale 39% 44% 7% 0% 0% 10%
Newcastle West 39% 47% 4% 0% 8% 2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 48% 30% 8% 1% 5% 7%
Dungarvan-Lismore 28% 36% 10% 0% 20% 5%
Comeragh 45% 43% 8% 0% 0% 4%
Tramore-Waterford City West 16% 24% 8% 2% 27% 23%
Waterford City South 15% 18% 8% 1% 24% 34%
Waterford City East 19% 25% 7% 3% 18% 28%
29% 26% 8% 3% 19% 16%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 1 0 0 2
Bailieborough-Cootehill 3 2 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 2 0 0 2 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 3 3 0 0 0 2
Killaloe 3 3 0 0 0 0
Shannon 2 2 0 0 0 2
West Clare 5 2 0 0 0 1
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 3 5 0 0 2 0
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 0 0 2 2
East Cork 1 1 0 0 2 2
Fermoy 3 2 0 0 1 0
Kanturk-Mallow 2 2 0 0 1 1
West Cork 3 3 0 0 1 1
Donegal 2 2 0 0 1 1
Glenties 2 0 0 0 3 1
Inishowen 3 2 0 0 4 0
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 3 0
Balbriggan 1 1 1 1 1 3
Castleknock 2 2 0 1 0 2
Howth-Malahide 2 2 1 1 0 2
Mulhuddart 2 1 1 0 3 1
Swords 2 2 1 0 1 3
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 4 1
Lucan 1 3 1 0 1 2
Tallaght Central 1 1 1 0 2 1
Tallaght South 1 0 0 0 5 0
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 1 1
Rathfarnham 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 3 1 0 0 3
Dundrum 2 2 1 1 0 1
Glencullen-Sandyford 2 2 2 0 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 2 2 0 0 0 2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 2 3 1 0 0 1
Ballinasloe 2 2 0 0 2 0
Connemara 3 2 0 0 2 2
Loughrea 2 3 0 0 0 3
Tuam 3 4 0 0 0 2
Killarney 2 1 0 0 1 4
Listowel 2 1 0 0 4 0
South and West Kerry 4 3 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 1 1 0 5 0
Athy 3 2 1 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 4 3 0 0 0 2
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 1 0 1 2
Naas 2 3 1 1 0 2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 4 2 0 0 0 0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 2 2 0 0 3 0
Ballinamore 2 1 0 0 3 0
Carrick on Shannon 3 1 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ballymahon 2 3 0 0 0 1
Granard 4 2 0 0 0 0
Longford Town 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ardee 2 2 0 0 2 0
Drogheda 3 2 1 0 4 0
Dundalk Carlingford 2 1 0 0 3 0
Dundalk South 1 1 0 1 3 1
Ballina 3 4 0 0 1 0
Castlebar 3 2 0 0 1 2
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 2 0
Ashbourne 2 1 0 0 1 2
Ratoath 3 2 0 0 0 2
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 3 1
Laytown-Bettystown 2 2 0 0 1 2
Trim 2 2 0 0 1 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 2 1 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 1 0 0 0 4 1
Edenderry 3 1 0 0 0 2
Tullamore 3 2 0 0 1 1
Birr 3 1 0 0 0 2
Boyle 2 2 0 0 1 1
Roscommon 2 2 0 0 0 2
Athlone (Roscommon) 3 2 0 0 0 1
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 3 0 0 1 2
Sligo 3 3 0 0 3 1
Nenagh 4 2 0 0 1 2
Templemore-Thurles 4 2 0 0 0 3
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 4 3 0 0 0 2
Cashel-Tipperary 3 3 0 0 0 1
Athlone 4 2 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 4 2 1 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 3 2 1 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 3 3 0 0 1 1
Gorey 3 3 0 0 1 1
New Ross 4 2 0 0 2 0
Wexford 2 3 1 0 2 2
Arklow 3 2 1 0 0 0
Baltinglass 1 2 0 0 1 2
Bray 2 1 0 0 3 2
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 0 0 1 3
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 0 1 0 2 1
Cork City South East 2 3 0 0 1 1
Cork City South West 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ballymun 2 1 1 0 3 0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 2 3
Beaumont-Donaghmede 2 1 1 0 5 0
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 0 0 4 1
Clontarf 2 2 0 0 0 2
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 2 2
North Inner City 0 0 1 0 4 3
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 2 1 1 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 0 2 1
Galway City Central 3 1 1 0 0 1
Galway City East 2 1 1 0 1 1
Galway City West 1 1 0 1 0 3
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 2 1
Limerick City East 3 4 0 0 0 1
Limerick City West 2 4 0 0 0 1
Adare-Rathkeale 3 3 0 0 0 0
Newcastle West 3 3 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 4 3 0 0 0 0
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 3 1 0 2 0
Comeragh 3 3 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 2 1
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 2 2
Waterford City East 1 2 0 0 1 2
Total 305 274 45 8 170 147
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
40% -19% -66% 167% 215% 8%

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 40%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 215%, the Green Party’s by 167% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 8%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 66% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 19%. There is a degree of over-estimation of Independent and Other seat numbers here, as I am treating them (as dictated by the large number of constituency units to be dealt with) here as if they were a coherent political grouping like the parties. But of course this group is a very broad church (including gene pool Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael independents, members of the Anti Austerity Alliance, community candidates, parties such as People Before Profit etc.) and will not have the same level of intra-party transfers that one would expect with the parties. But the likelihood would be that this grouping would be likely to make significant seat gains in any course on a 24% level of support (up around 6% on level won in the 2009 election). 

  FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
DUBLIN 36 40 23 5 42 37
LEINSTER 108 88 16 2 40 39
MUNSTER 89 86 3 0 40 41
CONNACHT-ULSTER 72 60 3 1 48 30

As the table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (23 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. But support trends in Dublin generally tend to be more volatile than in other parts of the state and Labour could be in even more serious trouble if the swing against the party proves to be stronger here than in other parts of the state, which could very well prove to be the case. 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown (15th October 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 37% 37% 11% 1% 10% 5%
Muine Bheag 26% 35% 16% 1% 5% 17%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 41% 33% 1% 1% 20% 4%
Ballyjamesduff 32% 39% 1% 0% 25% 3%
Cavan-Belturbert 30% 33% 3% 0% 28% 6%
Ennis 29% 32% 1% 2% 3% 32%
Killaloe 41% 36% 9% 0% 3% 11%
Shannon 23% 33% 4% 0% 3% 37%
West Clare 54% 25% 1% 1% 2% 17%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 24% 42% 8% 1% 17% 8%
Bandon-Kinsale 27% 36% 10% 0% 19% 6%
Blarney-Macrooom 28% 35% 12% 1% 16% 8%
Cobh 16% 24% 8% 1% 25% 26%
East Cork 16% 24% 8% 1% 25% 26%
Fermoy 36% 32% 10% 0% 12% 9%
Kanturk-Mallow 23% 34% 9% 0% 16% 18%
West Cork 35% 36% 4% 1% 11% 13%
Donegal 29% 26% 2% 0% 16% 26%
Glenties 26% 12% 5% 0% 34% 23%
Inishowen 29% 25% 3% 1% 37% 6%
Letterkenny 40% 19% 2% 1% 20% 18%
Stranorlar 27% 19% 6% 0% 40% 8%
Balbriggan 13% 16% 22% 4% 12% 34%
Castleknock 23% 22% 11% 4% 10% 29%
Howth-Malahide 22% 23% 20% 3% 9% 24%
Mulhuddart 19% 15% 16% 0% 29% 20%
Swords 18% 21% 17% 1% 13% 29%
Clondalkin 17% 16% 12% 1% 40% 14%
Lucan 16% 33% 12% 2% 11% 26%
Tallaght Central 12% 14% 16% 0% 34% 24%
Tallaght South 13% 6% 12% 2% 59% 7%
Templeogue Terenure 22% 28% 14% 1% 13% 22%
Rathfarnham 29% 35% 14% 3% 12% 8%
Blackrock 23% 40% 17% 3% 3% 15%
Dun Laoghaire 14% 35% 12% 3% 4% 33%
Dundrum 22% 32% 14% 3% 11% 18%
Glencullen-Sandyford 24% 31% 23% 3% 17% 2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 14% 30% 25% 2% 11% 17%
Stillorgan 23% 33% 11% 3% 4% 27%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 25% 38% 13% 0% 5% 18%
Ballinasloe 24% 34% 1% 0% 29% 12%
Connemara 29% 21% 1% 1% 22% 26%
Loughrea 22% 35% 2% 1% 3% 38%
Tuam 30% 38% 9% 1% 4% 19%
Killarney 23% 15% 8% 0% 9% 46%
Listowel 24% 20% 10% 0% 44% 1%
South and West Kerry 39% 35% 3% 1% 3% 18%
Tralee 20% 14% 14% 1% 45% 6%
Athy 38% 33% 20% 0% 3% 6%
Celbridge 16% 20% 27% 3% 3% 31%
Maynooth (Clane) 33% 27% 9% 1% 5% 25%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 33% 26% 11% 1% 11% 18%
Naas 25% 32% 15% 4% 4% 21%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 43% 32% 5% 0% 11% 9%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 36% 28% 2% 0% 16% 17%
Portlaoise 23% 31% 3% 0% 33% 10%
Ballinamore 27% 27% 1% 0% 41% 3%
Carrick on Shannon 40% 21% 3% 1% 9% 25%
Manorhamilton 24% 33% 1% 1% 29% 13%
Ballymahon 30% 43% 2% 0% 7% 18%
Granard 46% 38% 1% 0% 4% 10%
Longford Town 32% 29% 1% 0% 7% 30%
Ardee 25% 24% 4% 2% 34% 11%
Drogheda 22% 23% 13% 2% 32% 8%
Dundalk Carlingford 21% 15% 2% 2% 49% 12%
Dundalk South 21% 16% 2% 4% 42% 15%
Ballina 33% 40% 3% 0% 14% 10%
Castlebar 28% 30% 3% 0% 18% 21%
Claremorris 32% 38% 1% 0% 15% 14%
West Mayo 28% 36% 2% 0% 24% 10%
Ashbourne 29% 23% 8% 1% 14% 26%
Ratoath 34% 25% 8% 0% 5% 29%
Kells 39% 28% 5% 0% 26% 2%
Navan 24% 19% 5% 1% 35% 16%
Laytown-Bettystown 23% 22% 10% 1% 16% 27%
Trim 32% 30% 8% 0% 13% 18%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 30% 20% 1% 1% 47% 1%
Ballybay-Clones 24% 22% 1% 1% 48% 4%
Monaghan 13% 13% 1% 1% 59% 13%
Edenderry 40% 17% 4% 0% 8% 30%
Tullamore 34% 23% 3% 0% 17% 22%
Birr 39% 27% 1% 0% 2% 30%
Boyle 30% 36% 1% 0% 13% 20%
Roscommon 26% 28% 1% 0% 10% 35%
Athlone (Roscommon) 37% 27% 1% 0% 9% 27%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 28% 32% 2% 0% 14% 23%
Sligo 26% 32% 7% 0% 25% 10%
Nenagh 33% 23% 7% 0% 12% 25%
Templemore-Thurles 37% 20% 7% 0% 3% 33%
Carrick on Suir 28% 37% 7% 0% 11% 16%
Clonmel 33% 29% 9% 1% 3% 24%
Cashel-Tipperary 32% 40% 6% 0% 3% 18%
Athlone 44% 33% 5% 0% 14% 3%
Mullingar-Coole 37% 26% 22% 1% 9% 6%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 40% 27% 19% 0% 7% 7%
Enniscorthy 30% 35% 7% 0% 14% 15%
Gorey 33% 31% 7% 0% 16% 12%
New Ross 38% 22% 4% 2% 30% 4%
Wexford 21% 25% 14% 1% 18% 20%
Arklow 40% 28% 18% 0% 6% 9%
Baltinglass 18% 26% 4% 1% 20% 30%
Bray 18% 15% 11% 2% 32% 21%
Greystones 16% 53% 12% 2% 10% 8%
Wicklow 27% 21% 16% 2% 32% 1%
Cork City North Central 21% 11% 12% 0% 20% 36%
Cork City North East 20% 22% 12% 2% 21% 23%
Cork City North West 17% 9% 8% 0% 45% 21%
Cork City South Central 21% 13% 15% 1% 28% 21%
Cork City South East 21% 32% 8% 1% 19% 18%
Cork City South West 24% 29% 13% 2% 30% 2%
Ballymun 23% 15% 22% 1% 31% 8%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 10% 10% 14% 1% 27% 38%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 16% 12% 16% 0% 50% 7%
Cabra-Finglas 25% 8% 11% 1% 42% 13%
Clontarf 24% 28% 12% 1% 11% 25%
Crumlin-Kimmage 14% 9% 21% 2% 27% 28%
North Inner City 8% 6% 14% 2% 37% 33%
Rathgar-Rathmines 23% 27% 25% 4% 8% 13%
Pembroke-South Dock 17% 22% 24% 2% 20% 14%
Galway City Central 33% 19% 22% 2% 6% 17%
Galway City East 26% 21% 15% 1% 13% 25%
Galway City West 19% 20% 6% 3% 6% 46%
Limerick City North 16% 25% 10% 1% 23% 24%
Limerick City East 28% 39% 9% 0% 6% 17%
Limerick City West 23% 41% 11% 0% 6% 18%
Adare-Rathkeale 35% 44% 8% 0% 2% 10%
Newcastle West 37% 49% 5% 0% 8% 2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 46% 32% 9% 0% 5% 8%
Dungarvan-Lismore 26% 37% 11% 0% 20% 5%
Comeragh 40% 44% 8% 0% 3% 4%
Tramore-Waterford City West 14% 25% 9% 1% 27% 24%
Waterford City South 14% 19% 9% 0% 24% 35%
Waterford City East 17% 26% 8% 1% 18% 30%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 4 1 0 0 1
Bailieborough-Cootehill 3 2 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 2 3 0 0 0 3
Killaloe 3 3 0 0 0 0
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 5 2 0 0 0 1
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 3 5 0 0 2 0
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 2 1 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 0 0 2 2
East Cork 1 1 0 0 2 2
Fermoy 3 2 0 0 1 0
Kanturk-Mallow 2 2 0 0 1 1
West Cork 3 3 0 0 1 1
Donegal 2 2 0 0 1 1
Glenties 2 1 0 0 2 1
Inishowen 3 2 0 0 4 0
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 3 0
Balbriggan 1 1 2 0 1 3
Castleknock 2 1 1 0 1 2
Howth-Malahide 2 2 2 0 0 2
Mulhuddart 1 1 2 0 2 2
Swords 2 2 1 0 1 3
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 4 1
Lucan 1 3 1 0 0 3
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 0 1 0 4 0
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 1 1
Rathfarnham 2 2 1 0 1 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 3 1 0 0 3
Dundrum 2 3 1 0 0 1
Glencullen-Sandyford 2 2 2 0 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 2 2 0 0 0 2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 2 3 1 0 0 1
Ballinasloe 1 2 0 0 2 1
Connemara 3 2 0 0 2 2
Loughrea 2 3 0 0 0 3
Tuam 3 4 0 0 0 2
Killarney 2 1 0 0 0 5
Listowel 2 1 0 0 4 0
South and West Kerry 4 3 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 1 1 0 5 0
Athy 3 2 1 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 3 3 1 0 0 2
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 1 0 1 2
Naas 3 3 1 0 0 2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 4 2 0 0 0 0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 2 2 0 0 3 0
Ballinamore 1 2 0 0 3 0
Carrick on Shannon 3 1 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 1 2 0 0 2 1
Ballymahon 2 3 0 0 0 1
Granard 3 3 0 0 0 0
Longford Town 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ardee 2 2 0 0 2 0
Drogheda 2 3 1 0 4 0
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 2 1 0 0 3 1
Ballina 3 4 0 0 1 0
Castlebar 2 3 0 0 1 2
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 2 0
Ashbourne 2 1 0 0 1 2
Ratoath 3 2 0 0 0 2
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 3 1
Laytown-Bettystown 2 2 0 0 1 2
Trim 2 2 0 0 1 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 2 1 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 1 0 0 0 4 1
Edenderry 3 1 0 0 0 2
Tullamore 3 2 0 0 1 1
Birr 2 2 0 0 0 2
Boyle 2 2 0 0 1 1
Roscommon 2 2 0 0 0 2
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 3 0 0 1 2
Sligo 3 3 0 0 3 1
Nenagh 3 2 0 0 1 3
Templemore-Thurles 4 2 0 0 0 3
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 3 3 1 0 0 2
Cashel-Tipperary 3 3 0 0 0 1
Athlone 4 2 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 2 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 3 2 1 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 3 3 0 0 1 1
Gorey 3 3 0 0 1 1
New Ross 3 2 0 0 3 0
Wexford 2 3 1 0 2 2
Arklow 3 2 1 0 0 0
Baltinglass 1 2 0 0 1 2
Bray 1 1 1 0 3 2
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 1 0 1 2
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 0 1 0 2 1
Cork City South East 2 3 0 0 1 1
Cork City South West 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ballymun 2 1 2 0 2 0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 2 3
Beaumont-Donaghmede 2 1 1 0 5 0
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 1 0 3 1
Clontarf 2 2 0 0 0 2
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 2 2
North Inner City 1 0 1 0 3 3
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 2 2 0 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 0 2 1
Galway City Central 2 1 2 0 0 1
Galway City East 2 1 1 0 1 1
Galway City West 1 1 0 0 0 4
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 1 2
Limerick City East 3 4 0 0 0 1
Limerick City West 2 3 1 0 0 1
Adare-Rathkeale 3 3 0 0 0 0
Newcastle West 3 3 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 4 3 0 0 0 0
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 3 1 0 2 0
Comeragh 3 3 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 2 1
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 2 2
Waterford City East 1 2 0 0 1 2
Total 286 280 63 0 162 158
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
  31% -18% -52% -100% 200% 16%

Again, as with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis.

FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
DUBLIN 35 39 32 0 37 40
LEINSTER 101 93 19 0 41 39
MUNSTER 84 84 8 0 38 45
CONNACHT-ULSTER 66 64 4 0 46 34

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (32 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (15th September 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 32% 37% 12% 4% 9% 6%
Muine Bheag 21% 34% 17% 5% 4% 18%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 37% 35% 1% 4% 19% 5%
Ballyjamesduff 29% 42% 1% 1% 24% 3%
Cavan-Belturbert 27% 35% 3% 1% 27% 7%
Ennis 24% 31% 1% 6% 3% 35%
Killaloe 36% 37% 10% 1% 2% 13%
Shannon 19% 33% 4% 1% 3% 40%
West Clare 47% 25% 1% 6% 2% 19%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 21% 42% 8% 5% 15% 9%
Bandon-Kinsale 24% 38% 12% 1% 18% 8%
Blarney-Macrooom 24% 35% 13% 4% 15% 9%
Cobh 13% 23% 8% 5% 22% 29%
East Cork 13% 23% 8% 5% 22% 29%
Fermoy 32% 33% 11% 1% 11% 11%
Kanturk-Mallow 20% 35% 10% 0% 14% 21%
West Cork 30% 37% 4% 3% 10% 15%
Donegal 25% 27% 3% 1% 15% 29%
Glenties 23% 12% 6% 1% 32% 26%
Inishowen 25% 26% 3% 4% 35% 7%
Letterkenny 36% 20% 3% 2% 18% 21%
Stranorlar 24% 20% 7% 1% 38% 9%
Balbriggan 10% 14% 21% 14% 9% 33%
Castleknock 18% 20% 11% 14% 8% 29%
Howth-Malahide 17% 20% 20% 12% 7% 24%
Mulhuddart 17% 15% 18% 1% 26% 23%
Swords 15% 20% 18% 5% 11% 31%
Clondalkin 15% 16% 13% 6% 36% 15%
Lucan 13% 31% 12% 8% 9% 27%
Tallaght Central 10% 14% 17% 2% 31% 26%
Tallaght South 11% 6% 14% 7% 53% 8%
Templeogue Terenure 18% 27% 15% 5% 11% 23%
Rathfarnham 24% 33% 15% 10% 11% 8%
Blackrock 18% 37% 17% 11% 2% 15%
Dun Laoghaire 11% 32% 12% 10% 3% 33%
Dundrum 17% 30% 14% 12% 9% 18%
Glencullen-Sandyford 20% 30% 24% 10% 14% 2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 11% 28% 25% 9% 9% 17%
Stillorgan 18% 31% 11% 10% 3% 28%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 22% 38% 14% 1% 5% 20%
Ballinasloe 21% 36% 1% 1% 27% 14%
Connemara 26% 21% 1% 2% 20% 30%
Loughrea 18% 34% 2% 3% 2% 41%
Tuam 26% 37% 10% 2% 4% 21%
Killarney 19% 15% 8% 1% 8% 50%
Listowel 22% 22% 12% 1% 42% 2%
South and West Kerry 34% 36% 4% 4% 3% 21%
Tralee 18% 15% 17% 2% 42% 7%
Athy 33% 33% 23% 1% 3% 7%
Celbridge 12% 18% 27% 9% 2% 31%
Maynooth (Clane) 27% 26% 10% 4% 4% 28%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 28% 26% 12% 4% 10% 21%
Naas 19% 28% 14% 14% 3% 21%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 39% 34% 6% 1% 10% 10%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 32% 29% 2% 1% 15% 20%
Portlaoise 21% 32% 3% 1% 31% 12%
Ballinamore 24% 29% 2% 2% 39% 3%
Carrick on Shannon 35% 21% 4% 3% 9% 29%
Manorhamilton 21% 34% 1% 2% 27% 15%
Ballymahon 26% 43% 2% 2% 6% 20%
Granard 42% 40% 1% 1% 4% 11%
Longford Town 28% 29% 2% 2% 6% 34%
Ardee 21% 24% 4% 8% 30% 12%
Drogheda 19% 23% 15% 6% 29% 8%
Dundalk Carlingford 18% 16% 2% 7% 44% 13%
Dundalk South 16% 15% 2% 15% 35% 16%
Ballina 30% 42% 3% 1% 13% 11%
Castlebar 25% 31% 3% 1% 16% 24%
Claremorris 29% 39% 1% 1% 14% 16%
West Mayo 25% 38% 2% 1% 22% 11%
Ashbourne 25% 23% 9% 3% 12% 29%
Ratoath 29% 25% 9% 1% 5% 32%
Kells 36% 30% 6% 0% 25% 2%
Navan 21% 20% 6% 3% 32% 18%
Laytown-Bettystown 19% 22% 11% 6% 14% 29%
Trim 28% 31% 9% 1% 12% 20%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 27% 22% 1% 4% 45% 2%
Ballybay-Clones 22% 23% 1% 4% 46% 4%
Monaghan 12% 13% 1% 4% 55% 15%
Edenderry 35% 18% 4% 1% 8% 34%
Tullamore 30% 24% 4% 1% 15% 26%
Birr 34% 28% 2% 1% 2% 34%
Boyle 26% 37% 1% 1% 12% 23%
Roscommon 22% 28% 1% 1% 9% 39%
Athlone (Roscommon) 32% 27% 1% 1% 8% 30%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 25% 33% 3% 1% 13% 26%
Sligo 23% 33% 8% 1% 24% 12%
Nenagh 28% 23% 8% 1% 11% 29%
Templemore-Thurles 32% 20% 8% 1% 2% 37%
Carrick on Suir 24% 38% 8% 1% 10% 18%
Clonmel 28% 29% 10% 4% 3% 26%
Cashel-Tipperary 27% 41% 7% 1% 3% 21%
Athlone 40% 35% 7% 1% 14% 4%
Mullingar-Coole 32% 26% 24% 3% 8% 7%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 35% 28% 22% 1% 6% 8%
Enniscorthy 26% 36% 9% 1% 12% 17%
Gorey 29% 32% 8% 1% 15% 14%
New Ross 33% 23% 5% 8% 27% 4%
Wexford 18% 25% 15% 5% 16% 22%
Arklow 34% 28% 20% 2% 6% 10%
Baltinglass 15% 26% 5% 3% 18% 34%
Bray 14% 15% 12% 9% 28% 23%
Greystones 13% 51% 12% 7% 8% 8%
Wicklow 23% 20% 18% 9% 28% 2%
Cork City North Central 17% 11% 13% 2% 18% 39%
Cork City North East 17% 21% 13% 8% 17% 24%
Cork City North West 15% 9% 9% 1% 41% 24%
Cork City South Central 18% 13% 17% 5% 24% 23%
Cork City South East 18% 31% 9% 5% 16% 20%
Cork City South West 21% 29% 14% 8% 27% 2%
Ballymun 20% 15% 25% 3% 28% 9%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 8% 10% 15% 3% 23% 41%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 14% 12% 18% 0% 47% 8%
Cabra-Finglas 22% 8% 13% 5% 38% 15%
Clontarf 20% 27% 12% 4% 9% 27%
Crumlin-Kimmage 11% 8% 21% 8% 23% 29%
North Inner City 7% 6% 15% 6% 31% 35%
Rathgar-Rathmines 17% 24% 25% 15% 6% 13%
Pembroke-South Dock 14% 21% 25% 9% 17% 15%
Galway City Central 27% 18% 24% 8% 5% 18%
Galway City East 21% 20% 16% 4% 11% 28%
Galway City West 14% 18% 6% 12% 4% 45%
Limerick City North 13% 25% 11% 5% 20% 26%
Limerick City East 24% 39% 11% 2% 5% 19%
Limerick City West 19% 41% 13% 2% 5% 20%
Adare-Rathkeale 31% 46% 9% 1% 2% 11%
Newcastle West 33% 51% 6% 1% 7% 2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 40% 34% 11% 2% 4% 9%
Dungarvan-Lismore 23% 39% 13% 1% 18% 6%
Comeragh 36% 46% 10% 1% 3% 5%
Tramore-Waterford City West 12% 25% 10% 2% 24% 27%
Waterford City South 12% 18% 9% 2% 21% 38%
Waterford City East 14% 26% 9% 4% 15% 32%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 1 0 0 2
Bailieborough-Cootehill 3 2 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 2 3 0 0 0 3
Killaloe 2 3 0 0 0 1
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 4 2 0 0 0 2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 2 5 1 0 1 1
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 2 1 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 0 0 2 2
East Cork 1 2 0 0 1 2
Fermoy 2 3 0 0 1 0
Kanturk-Mallow 1 3 0 0 1 1
West Cork 3 3 0 0 1 1
Donegal 1 2 0 0 1 2
Glenties 1 1 0 0 2 2
Inishowen 2 3 0 0 4 0
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 3 0
Balbriggan 1 1 2 1 0 3
Castleknock 1 2 1 1 0 2
Howth-Malahide 1 2 2 1 0 2
Mulhuddart 1 1 2 0 2 2
Swords 1 2 2 0 1 3
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 4 1
Lucan 1 3 1 0 0 3
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 0 1 0 4 0
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 0 2
Rathfarnham 2 3 1 0 0 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 3 1 0 0 3
Dundrum 1 2 1 1 0 2
Glencullen-Sandyford 1 2 2 1 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 1 2 1 0 0 2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 2 3 1 0 0 1
Ballinasloe 1 2 0 0 2 1
Connemara 2 2 0 0 2 3
Loughrea 1 3 0 0 0 4
Tuam 2 4 1 0 0 2
Killarney 2 1 0 0 0 5
Listowel 2 1 1 0 3 0
South and West Kerry 3 4 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 1 2 0 4 0
Athy 2 2 2 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 3 2 1 0 0 3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 1 0 1 2
Naas 2 3 1 1 0 2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 3 3 0 0 0 0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 1 2 0 0 3 1
Ballinamore 1 2 0 0 3 0
Carrick on Shannon 3 1 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 1 2 0 0 2 1
Ballymahon 2 4 0 0 0 0
Granard 3 3 0 0 0 0
Longford Town 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ardee 1 2 0 0 2 1
Drogheda 2 3 1 0 3 1
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 1 1 0 1 3 1
Ballina 2 4 0 0 1 1
Castlebar 2 3 0 0 1 2
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 1 1
Ashbourne 2 1 0 0 1 2
Ratoath 2 2 0 0 0 3
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 3 1
Laytown-Bettystown 1 2 1 0 1 2
Trim 2 2 0 0 1 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 1 2 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 0 1 0 0 4 1
Edenderry 3 1 0 0 0 2
Tullamore 2 2 0 0 1 2
Birr 2 2 0 0 0 2
Boyle 2 3 0 0 0 1
Roscommon 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 3 0 0 1 2
Sligo 2 4 1 0 2 1
Nenagh 3 2 0 0 1 3
Templemore-Thurles 3 2 0 0 0 4
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 3 3 1 0 0 2
Cashel-Tipperary 2 3 0 0 0 2
Athlone 3 3 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 2 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 3 2 1 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 3 3 0 0 1 1
Gorey 3 3 0 0 1 1
New Ross 4 2 0 0 2 0
Wexford 2 3 1 0 2 2
Arklow 3 2 1 0 0 0
Baltinglass 1 2 0 0 1 2
Bray 1 1 1 0 3 2
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 1 0 1 2
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 1 1 0 1 1
Cork City South East 1 3 0 0 1 2
Cork City South West 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ballymun 2 1 2 0 2 0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 2 3
Beaumont-Donaghmede 1 1 2 0 4 1
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 1 0 3 1
Clontarf 1 2 1 0 0 2
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 2 2
North Inner City 0 0 1 0 3 4
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 1 2 1 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 1 1 1
Galway City Central 2 1 2 0 0 1
Galway City East 2 1 1 0 1 1
Galway City West 1 1 0 1 0 3
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 1 2
Limerick City East 2 4 1 0 0 1
Limerick City West 1 3 1 0 0 2
Adare-Rathkeale 2 3 0 0 0 1
Newcastle West 2 4 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 3 3 1 0 0 0
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 4 1 0 1 0
Comeragh 3 3 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 1 2
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 1 3
Waterford City East 1 2 0 0 1 2
Total 242 293 76 10 143 184
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
  11% -14% -42% 233% 165% 35%

As with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail (although the level of Fianna Fail gains are not seem to be as dramatic in this study), as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But, as with the previous model, the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis. Indeed, in this analysis, Fine Gael are predicted to emerged as the party with the largest number of seats across all of the different local authority areas. 

FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
DUBLIN 26 39 36 7 31 44
LEINSTER 91 94 21 2 39 45
MUNSTER 70 91 13 0 30 55
CONNACHT-ULSTER 55 69 6 1 43 40

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (32 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (27th October 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 32% 40% 11% 2% 9% 6%
Muine Bheag 21% 37% 16% 3% 4% 20%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 36% 37% 1% 2% 18% 5%
Ballyjamesduff 28% 44% 1% 1% 23% 3%
Cavan-Belturbert 27% 36% 3% 0% 26% 7%
Ennis 24% 33% 1% 3% 3% 36%
Killaloe 35% 39% 9% 1% 2% 14%
Shannon 19% 34% 3% 1% 3% 41%
West Clare 47% 27% 1% 3% 2% 20%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 21% 45% 8% 3% 15% 9%
Bandon-Kinsale 24% 40% 11% 0% 17% 8%
Blarney-Macrooom 24% 38% 12% 2% 15% 10%
Cobh 13% 25% 8% 2% 22% 30%
East Cork 13% 25% 8% 2% 22% 30%
Fermoy 32% 35% 10% 0% 11% 11%
Kanturk-Mallow 20% 37% 9% 0% 14% 21%
West Cork 30% 39% 4% 2% 10% 16%
Donegal 25% 28% 2% 0% 14% 30%
Glenties 23% 13% 5% 0% 31% 27%
Inishowen 25% 28% 3% 2% 35% 7%
Letterkenny 35% 21% 2% 1% 18% 22%
Stranorlar 24% 21% 7% 0% 38% 10%
Balbriggan 10% 16% 20% 7% 10% 37%
Castleknock 19% 22% 11% 7% 9% 33%
Howth-Malahide 18% 23% 19% 6% 7% 27%
Mulhuddart 17% 16% 16% 0% 26% 24%
Swords 15% 22% 17% 3% 11% 33%
Clondalkin 15% 17% 12% 3% 37% 16%
Lucan 13% 34% 11% 4% 9% 29%
Tallaght Central 10% 15% 16% 1% 31% 28%
Tallaght South 11% 7% 13% 4% 56% 9%
Templeogue Terenure 18% 29% 14% 3% 11% 25%
Rathfarnham 25% 37% 14% 5% 11% 9%
Blackrock 18% 41% 16% 6% 2% 16%
Dun Laoghaire 11% 35% 11% 5% 3% 36%
Dundrum 18% 33% 13% 6% 9% 20%
Glencullen-Sandyford 21% 34% 23% 5% 15% 2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 12% 31% 24% 5% 9% 19%
Stillorgan 18% 34% 10% 5% 3% 30%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 21% 40% 12% 1% 5% 21%
Ballinasloe 21% 38% 1% 0% 26% 14%
Connemara 25% 23% 1% 1% 20% 30%
Loughrea 17% 36% 2% 2% 2% 42%
Tuam 25% 40% 9% 1% 4% 21%
Killarney 18% 16% 7% 0% 7% 51%
Listowel 22% 23% 11% 0% 42% 2%
South and West Kerry 33% 38% 3% 2% 3% 22%
Tralee 18% 16% 15% 1% 42% 7%
Athy 33% 36% 21% 1% 3% 7%
Celbridge 13% 20% 25% 5% 3% 34%
Maynooth (Clane) 27% 28% 9% 2% 4% 29%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 28% 27% 11% 2% 10% 22%
Naas 20% 32% 14% 8% 4% 23%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 38% 36% 5% 0% 10% 11%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 31% 31% 2% 0% 14% 21%
Portlaoise 20% 34% 3% 0% 30% 12%
Ballinamore 24% 31% 1% 1% 39% 4%
Carrick on Shannon 34% 22% 3% 2% 8% 30%
Manorhamilton 21% 36% 1% 1% 26% 15%
Ballymahon 25% 45% 2% 1% 6% 20%
Granard 40% 42% 1% 1% 4% 12%
Longford Town 27% 30% 1% 1% 6% 35%
Ardee 21% 27% 4% 4% 31% 13%
Drogheda 19% 25% 14% 3% 29% 9%
Dundalk Carlingford 18% 17% 2% 3% 45% 14%
Dundalk South 18% 17% 2% 8% 38% 18%
Ballina 29% 43% 3% 0% 13% 12%
Castlebar 24% 32% 3% 0% 16% 25%
Claremorris 28% 41% 1% 0% 14% 17%
West Mayo 24% 40% 2% 0% 22% 12%
Ashbourne 25% 24% 8% 1% 12% 30%
Ratoath 28% 26% 8% 1% 5% 33%
Kells 36% 32% 5% 0% 25% 2%
Navan 21% 21% 5% 2% 32% 19%
Laytown-Bettystown 19% 23% 10% 3% 14% 31%
Trim 27% 32% 8% 1% 11% 21%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 27% 24% 1% 2% 45% 2%
Ballybay-Clones 22% 25% 1% 2% 46% 5%
Monaghan 12% 14% 1% 2% 55% 16%
Edenderry 34% 19% 4% 1% 7% 35%
Tullamore 29% 25% 3% 0% 15% 27%
Birr 33% 29% 1% 0% 2% 35%
Boyle 25% 39% 1% 0% 12% 23%
Roscommon 22% 29% 1% 0% 9% 39%
Athlone (Roscommon) 31% 29% 1% 1% 8% 31%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 24% 34% 2% 0% 13% 27%
Sligo 23% 35% 7% 0% 23% 12%
Nenagh 28% 24% 7% 0% 11% 30%
Templemore-Thurles 31% 21% 7% 0% 2% 38%
Carrick on Suir 23% 40% 7% 0% 10% 19%
Clonmel 28% 31% 9% 2% 3% 28%
Cashel-Tipperary 27% 43% 6% 0% 3% 21%
Athlone 39% 37% 6% 0% 14% 4%
Mullingar-Coole 32% 28% 22% 1% 8% 8%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 35% 30% 20% 1% 6% 9%
Enniscorthy 25% 37% 8% 0% 12% 17%
Gorey 29% 34% 7% 0% 15% 14%
New Ross 34% 25% 5% 4% 28% 5%
Wexford 18% 27% 14% 2% 16% 24%
Arklow 35% 30% 18% 1% 6% 10%
Baltinglass 15% 27% 4% 2% 18% 35%
Bray 15% 16% 11% 4% 29% 25%
Greystones 14% 55% 11% 4% 9% 9%
Wicklow 24% 23% 17% 5% 29% 2%
Cork City North Central 17% 12% 12% 1% 17% 41%
Cork City North East 17% 23% 12% 4% 18% 26%
Cork City North West 15% 10% 8% 1% 41% 26%
Cork City South Central 18% 14% 15% 3% 25% 25%
Cork City South East 18% 34% 8% 2% 16% 21%
Cork City South West 21% 32% 13% 4% 27% 3%
Ballymun 21% 16% 23% 2% 29% 10%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 8% 10% 14% 1% 23% 43%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 14% 13% 17% 0% 47% 9%
Cabra-Finglas 22% 9% 12% 2% 39% 16%
Clontarf 20% 29% 11% 2% 9% 28%
Crumlin-Kimmage 12% 9% 20% 4% 23% 32%
North Inner City 7% 6% 14% 3% 32% 38%
Rathgar-Rathmines 19% 28% 24% 8% 6% 15%
Pembroke-South Dock 15% 23% 23% 4% 18% 17%
Galway City Central 28% 20% 22% 4% 6% 20%
Galway City East 21% 22% 14% 2% 11% 29%
Galway City West 15% 19% 6% 6% 5% 49%
Limerick City North 13% 27% 10% 3% 20% 28%
Limerick City East 24% 41% 9% 1% 5% 19%
Limerick City West 19% 43% 11% 1% 5% 21%
Adare-Rathkeale 30% 48% 8% 0% 2% 11%
Newcastle West 32% 54% 5% 0% 7% 2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 40% 36% 10% 1% 4% 9%
Dungarvan-Lismore 23% 41% 11% 0% 18% 6%
Comeragh 35% 48% 9% 1% 3% 5%
Tramore-Waterford City West 12% 26% 9% 1% 24% 28%
Waterford City South 11% 19% 8% 1% 20% 40%
Waterford City East 14% 27% 8% 2% 15% 34%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 1 0 0 2
Bailieborough-Cootehill 2 3 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 2 3 0 0 0 3
Killaloe 2 3 0 0 0 1
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 4 2 0 0 0 2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 2 5 1 0 1 1
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 2 1 0 1 0
Cobh 1 2 0 0 2 2
East Cork 1 2 0 0 1 2
Fermoy 2 3 0 0 1 0
Kanturk-Mallow 1 3 0 0 1 1
West Cork 3 3 0 0 1 1
Donegal 1 2 0 0 1 2
Glenties 1 1 0 0 2 2
Inishowen 2 3 0 0 4 0
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 3 0
Balbriggan 1 1 2 0 1 3
Castleknock 1 2 1 0 0 3
Howth-Malahide 2 2 2 0 0 2
Mulhuddart 2 1 1 0 2 2
Swords 1 2 2 0 1 3
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 4 1
Lucan 1 3 1 0 0 3
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 0 1 0 4 0
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 1 0 0 2
Rathfarnham 2 3 1 0 0 0
Blackrock 1 3 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 3 1 0 0 3
Dundrum 1 3 1 0 0 2
Glencullen-Sandyford 1 3 2 0 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 2 0 0 1
Stillorgan 1 3 0 0 0 2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 2 3 1 0 0 1
Ballinasloe 1 2 0 0 2 1
Connemara 2 2 0 0 2 3
Loughrea 1 3 0 0 0 4
Tuam 2 4 1 0 0 2
Killarney 2 1 0 0 0 5
Listowel 2 2 0 0 3 0
South and West Kerry 3 4 0 0 0 2
Tralee 2 2 1 0 4 0
Athy 2 3 1 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 2 0 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 3 3 0 0 0 3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 1 0 1 2
Naas 2 4 1 0 0 2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 3 3 0 0 0 0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 2 0 0 1 1
Portlaoise 1 3 0 0 2 1
Ballinamore 1 2 0 0 3 0
Carrick on Shannon 3 1 0 0 0 2
Manorhamilton 1 2 0 0 2 1
Ballymahon 2 3 0 0 0 1
Granard 3 3 0 0 0 0
Longford Town 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ardee 1 2 0 0 2 1
Drogheda 2 3 1 0 3 1
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 1 1 0 0 4 1
Ballina 2 4 0 0 1 1
Castlebar 2 3 0 0 1 2
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 1 1
Ashbourne 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ratoath 2 2 0 0 0 3
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 3 1
Laytown-Bettystown 1 2 0 0 1 3
Trim 2 2 0 0 1 1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 1 2 0 0 3 0
Monaghan 0 1 0 0 4 1
Edenderry 2 1 0 0 0 3
Tullamore 2 2 0 0 1 2
Birr 2 2 0 0 0 2
Boyle 2 3 0 0 0 1
Roscommon 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 2 0 0 0 2
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 3 0 0 1 2
Sligo 2 4 0 0 3 1
Nenagh 3 2 0 0 1 3
Templemore-Thurles 3 2 0 0 0 4
Carrick on Suir 2 3 0 0 0 1
Clonmel 3 3 0 0 0 3
Cashel-Tipperary 2 4 0 0 0 1
Athlone 3 3 0 0 1 0
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 2 0 0 0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 3 2 1 0 0 0
Enniscorthy 2 4 0 0 1 1
Gorey 3 3 0 0 1 1
New Ross 3 2 0 0 3 0
Wexford 2 3 1 0 2 2
Arklow 3 2 1 0 0 0
Baltinglass 1 2 0 0 1 2
Bray 1 1 1 0 3 2
Greystones 1 4 1 0 0 0
Wicklow 2 1 1 0 2 0
Cork City North Central 1 0 0 0 1 3
Cork City North East 1 1 0 0 1 1
Cork City North West 1 0 0 0 2 1
Cork City South Central 1 1 1 0 1 1
Cork City South East 1 3 0 0 1 2
Cork City South West 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ballymun 2 1 2 0 2 0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 0 1 0 2 3
Beaumont-Donaghmede 1 1 2 0 4 1
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 1 0 3 1
Clontarf 1 2 1 0 0 2
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 2 2
North Inner City 0 0 1 0 3 4
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 2 2 0 0 1
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 0 2 1
Galway City Central 2 1 2 0 0 1
Galway City East 1 1 1 0 1 2
Galway City West 1 1 0 0 0 4
Limerick City North 1 2 0 0 1 2
Limerick City East 2 4 0 0 0 2
Limerick City West 1 4 1 0 0 1
Adare-Rathkeale 2 4 0 0 0 0
Newcastle West 2 4 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 4 3 0 0 0 0
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 4 1 0 1 0
Comeragh 2 4 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 2 0 0 1 2
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 1 3
Waterford City East 1 2 0 0 1 2
Total 238 310 64 0 146 191
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
  9% -9% -52% -100% 170% 40%

As with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail (although the level of Fianna Fail gains are not seem to be as dramatic in this study), as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But, as with the previous model, the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis. Indeed, in this analysis, Fine Gael are predicted to emerged as the party with the largest number of seats across all of the different local authority areas..

FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
DUBLIN 28 43 34 0 33 45
LEINSTER 87 100 18 0 39 49
MUNSTER 70 97 7 0 30 55
CONNACHT-ULSTER 53 70 5 0 44 42

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level) shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (34 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

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About Adrian Kavanagh

Lecturer in Maynooth University Department of Geography.
This entry was posted in Election boundaries, Local Elections 2014, opinion polls and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Predicting 2014 Local Election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls employing a constituency-level analysis

  1. Reblogged this on irishonlineradio and commented:
    Wonderful insightful and comprehensive article by Adrian Kavanagh on the local election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls.

  2. Pingback: Anonymous

  3. Helen Delaney says:

    Predicting 2014 Local Election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls employing a constituency-level analysis
    Re above. In Portlaoise district I assume you mean two FF may be elected and one SF given that there is just one SF candidate running.
    Excellent site Helen D

    • Helen
      This was posted a few months ago before final candidate numbers were known (and of course these will not be known definitively until May 3rd – Sinn Fein could yet add a second candidate in Portlaoise). But – as stated in the post – this analysis is not attempting to develop a accurate prediction of electoral area-level support/seats levels for parties/groups – the aim here is to try and use these pretty rough constituency estimates to be added to get to get national seat level estimates for the different parties/groups based on the support levels in a given opinion poll only

  4. Ahmad Jamal says:

    Adrian, can you kindly give a latest analysis of Ashbourne district for me please. Thanks

    • At this stage, to be honest, it’s really down to the strength of the different candidates and their campaigns and only a local expert will be able to have a take on this electoral area (or indeed any other). The constituency estimates here, though a few months old, might give a rough sense of where party support might be at, but it is only a very rough estimate.

  5. Gary King says:

    Hi Adrian,
    Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses is an excellent website. I wish to complement you on the thoroughness and preciseness of the information that you detail on the site, particularly in regards to the smaller parties who are often ignored by the mainstream media. To lump them all in as “Independent” is lazy and does a diservice to the public who may want more information on the political options available to them. Whether you like or loath there parties they are part of the political jigsaw, it is important that we know were they are ideologically coming from and the electoral base from which they are starting from. Otherwise everyone gets “shocked” when one of these parties wins something like a by-election or council seats and nobody sees it coming. (Of the course the expected result for the Socialist Party in Dublin West will not be a shock.)

    Well we are just hours away from the polls closing and possibly on the cusp of a historic European and Local Election result. In fact this Election could be more of a watershed for Irish Politics then the 2011 General Election, the implications of it could very fundamental, certainly more then any previous Euro and Local Election-certainly any that have been held in my lifetime. In many ways the Locals are the most important and will be a key to future Dail Elections more so then the Euro Election. For what is worth here is my prediction for the Local Election

    National (949 Seats)
    (In order of last General Election result)

    FG-25.2% (242)
    LAB- 8.4% (81)
    FF- 23.3% (233)
    SF – 12.9% (134)
    Green- 2.7% (19)
    AAA- 2.3% (16)
    PBP- 1.6% (6)
    WP- 0.4% (3)
    IND/OTH- 23.2% (215)

    In the Euro Election I believe it will goes as follows

    National (11 Seats)
    FG – (4) MEP-M McGuinness, B Hayes, S Kelly, D Clune.
    LAB- (0)
    FF- (1) MEP-B Crowley.
    SF- (3) MEP-M Carthy, L Boylan, L Ni Riada.
    IND- (3) MEP-Ming, M Harkin, N Childers.

    By-Elections : Dublin West will won by the Socialist Party and Longford Westmeath by Fine Gael.

    Predicting Irish Elections is risky, but no harm in having a go.
    We will see, not long till the results now. Keep up the good work

    All the Best
    Gary King

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