Adrian Kavanagh, 23 July 2013 

This post will attempt to ascertain what different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might be following next year’s City and County Council elections on the basis of national support figures associated with recent opinion polls, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political Forum website, which attempts to predict Dáil seat numbers on the basis of such poll figures.

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Rationale behind these models: The analysis used here is similar to posts on The Irish Politics Forum which have applied this constituency level analysis to estimate potential general election seat numbers from different opinion poll figures, based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in previous elections) – something that will not be possible with this particular analysis. This analysis attempts to estimate what party seat levels would be across the different City and County Councils in the state, should such national support trends in opinion polls be replicated at next year’s local elections.

What is the big idea lying behind this research? The proportion of seats won by parties in Irish general, European and local elections does not tend to measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference vote (although the system is decidedly more proportional than its UK counterpart), mainly because party’s first preference votes need to be filtered through the system of Irish electoral constituencies. In order to address this question, I attempt to estimate what party first preference votes would be in different constituencies, assuming similar (proportional) change in party vote shares in all constituencies. How does this work? Well, for instance, Labour’s share of the vote is estimated in this poll to now stand at just five-ninths of the level of support that the party won at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael’s vote share would stand at four-fifths the party’s level of support won in these elections, Fianna Fáil’s vote share would stand at eight-sevenths the party’s level of support won in these elections while Sinn Féin support levels are estimated to be two and three-fifths the vote share that the party won at the 2009 City and County Council elections. So for any electoral area, for instance, the Labour support levels would be estimated at five-ninths of the percentage support levels achieved by the party in 2009 in that (local election) constituency and the Fine Gael support level would be estimated at four-fifths the 2009 percentage Fine Gael support levels.

This of course is a very rough model, and ignores the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, even within specific provinces or regions. An attempt has been made to take account of the impact that boundary changes/territory transfers, brought in by the Local Electoral Area Boundary Committee Report 2013, would have on vote share, as well as the changing numbers of seats associated with the different local election constituencies/local electoral areas. Given the lack of tallies for the 2009 local electoral contests, the calculation of the base, 2009 support level, figures for the different constituency units is not as accurate as one would wish. This is not an issue for those counties/local authority areas where little or no change has occurred in relation to local election boundaries (such as Cork City and Fingal) or where new local election constituency units are largely drawn up on the basis of an amalgamation of the pre-existing units (as in the case of Carlow). But where significant territory transfers have taken place, the calculation of the base (2009) support level figures for the new constituency units involves a degree of guesstimating and the individual constituency-level predictions are less reliable in these cases. Based on these estimated figures, I proceed to estimate the destination of seats in the different constituencies in each of the different region/provinces and then to aggregate these to complete the national estimates.

This analysis is based on the assumption of universal swings to/from parties along a similar line to the national trends suggested in the poll figures. But, in addition to the other provisos not earlier in this post, it is also worth noting that there are areas that can defy such national trends. A good example of such an area would be Westmeath, where support trends in some recent general and local elections have gone against the over-riding trend associated with those contests, as evidenced in the increased support for Labour’s Willie Penrose in the 1997 General Election and the increased support for Fine Gael’s Paul McGrath in the 2002 General Election, as well as the strong performance by Fianna Fail in Westmeath at the most recent (2009) local election contest.

Due to unusually high/low support levels for some parties or political groupings in the previous election, the model may throw up occasional constituency predictions that are unlikely to pan out in a “real election”, but the estimates here cannot be seen as highly accurate estimates of support levels at the constituency level as in a “real election” party support changes will vary significantly across constituency given uneven geographical shifts in support levels. For instance, while Sinn Fein won just over seven percent of the national vote at the 2009 local elections, there were a number of electoral areas in which the party polled exceptionally well (such as those in Monaghan County, the Listowel and Tralee electoral areas in Kerry and a number of the more working class electoral areas in Dublin). If the level of swing to Sinn Fein suggested by polls in 2012 and 2013 is applied to these cases, this would make for exceptionally high constituency support predictions and seat estimates for the party in these cases. This scenario may well not pan out in the actual election (indeed the party might not run as many candidates as the seats being assigned to it in some of these stronger electoral areas) – the party vote may not be as high as the model is suggesting, with this being offset by stronger Sinn Fein performances in electoral areas in which the party did not do as well in (or did not contest) at the 2009 Local Elections.

There is also a problem associated with areas that were not contested by some of the smaller parties, such as Labour, Sinn Fein and the Green Party, in the 2009 contest. By default, the model will produce a 0% support estimate for such areas, if the baseline 2009 support is estimated at 0%. To (partly) correct this, I have been allocating 2009 party support estimates for these different parties in these “missing” electoral areas, with this estimate being calculated from the smallest level of support won by those parties/groupings in similar sized constituency areas (i.e. areas with same number of seats) in the 2009 contest. This approach has been used for the second and third set of analyses in this post.

The ultimate aim of the models are to get an overall, national-level, estimate of seat numbers and this is based on the proviso that an over-prediction in a number of local election constituencies will be offset by under-prediction in other constituencies. The idea here is that cases of areas/counties where too many seats/much support is being assigned to a party will be offset by other areas/counties where not enough seats/much support is being assigned to that party. NOTE: This model, it must be stressed, is not aiming to glean 100% accurate predictions as to party support/seat levels in the different local election electoral areas (or even at the City/County level). (The analysis may offer some pointers as to what party’s potential support levels would be in these constituencies.) The sole purpose of these constituency-level estimates is for these to be used as a means of estimating what overall party/grouping seat levels would be at the national level if opinion poll support levels were replicated at the actual elections. With this in mind, keep the following health warnings in mind:

Some Major Health Warnings: It is worth noting that people tend to be more focused on voting for candidates in local elections than they are in general elections and this emphasis on candidate-voting, as opposed to voting for political parties, will impact on local election support levels for the different parties also. For instance, the presence of an exceptionally popular local candidate on a party ticket will push up support levels for that party up above the expected levels that would be predicted in these models. The importance of candidate voting may also affect the base levels (2009) of support for different parties in certain constituencies, with a knock on effect on the predicted party support levels in those constituencies.  For instance if strong candidates who polled well in 2009 have subsequently been elected/co-opted to Dail Eireann, Seanad Eireann or the European Parliament (and a later post has shown that a significant number of poll toppers at these local elections went on to achieve success at the general elections of 2011, while some others have now retired), they will not be able to contest the local elections in 2014. Hence, the party support level (2009 base level) may be potentially lower than the figures used in this model, meaning that the constituency support estimates are hence over-estimated. By contrast, the inclusion of a strong candidate, who did not contest the 2009 elections, on a ticket may push up that party’s support level to a higher level than might be expected. This can be seen in the case of the 2004 local elections where a number of strong Fine Gael performances arose because constituencies were being contested by former (and in most cases, future) party TDs who had lost their seats at the 2002 General Election. By contrast, due to the abolition of the dual mandate ahead of those elections, Fianna Fail TDs were not allowed to contest these elections and the drop in party support/seat levels at these elections could be in part attributed to this factor. In a similar vein, defections from different political parties will have an impact on those parties’ base levels of support in the local election constituencies/electoral areas concerned. For instance, Labour hopes of retaining their seats in Wicklow, for instance, will have been undermined – over and above what is being suggested in this model – by the decision of some of their Councillors to resign from the party and join the independent ranks,  as also evidenced in the resignations of a number of Councillors from Fianna Fail in the lead up to General Election 2011 (involving electoral areas such as Athlone (Westmeath), Killarney (Kerry) and Edenderry (Offaly)) and of a number of Fine Gael Councillors in Roscommon County.

Furthermore, as in keeping with second order election models, some Fine Gael and Labour supporters, who may not be satisfied with their parties’ performances in government, may use mid-term elections such as local elections to register a “safe” protest against their own by party by voting for other parties or by not opting to vote at all. (For some voters, it should be added, local elections may well be as important as, or even more important than, the “first order” general election contests.) Support levels for these parties could well, hence, be lower at a local election contest than they are in opinion polls being taken at the time of these elections – the same might apply to parties/grouping whose main support grounds tend to be less likely to turn out to vote as compared with other parties/groupings’ supporters.

All in all, the personnel contesting the upcoming local elections of May 23rd 2014 will be rather different to those who contested the preceding elections in 2009 and this will have a bearing on likely party support levels, given the impact that candidate factors and local factor have on party support levels in these contests.

Furthermore given the volume of boundary changes involving local election constituencies, the 2009 base estimates of party support are not as accurate as I would like these to be, given that party support levels have had to be approximated in cases where a lack of tally data has militated against more accurate measures being calculated.

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The general trend in opinion polls in the last few months of 2013 was one that strongly indicated an improvement in Fianna Fail support levels and fortunes relative to the 2011 General Election, mainly at the expense of the government parties. However, it is worth noting that the Fianna Fail support levels in some polls were on a par with, or at times even lower, than the level of support that party won in at the 2009 Local Elections. Support levels for Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping were also seen to be on the rise in recent polls, but it is worth noting that the latter grouping also tends to win relatively high support levels at local election contests, as indeed was also the case in the 2009 contest.

The Paddy Power-Red C poll of 7th November 2013 – pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved fortunes for the opposition parties and groupings and of declining support for the government parties.  This puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the previous Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 25% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 1%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 253, Fine Gael 266, Sinn Fein 127, Labour 65, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 237. But the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 24th November 2013 brought some better news for the government parties, with their combined support levels seven percentage points higher than the Paddy Power-Red C poll. This puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 29% (NC), Fianna Fail 22% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 2%), Labour 12% (up 3%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 224, Fine Gael 311, Sinn Fein 125, Labour 94, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 197.

The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of 7^th July 2013 – pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved Fianna Fail (and Sinn Féin) fortunes and of declining support for the government parties, but especially Labour.  The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (7th July 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 26% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour 8% (down 3%), Green Party, Independents and Others 19% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 305, Fine Gael 275, Sinn Fein 169, Labour 45, Green Party 8, Independents and Others 147. 

Some other polls, have however, been more favourable to the government parties and for the sake of balance I am updating this post to take account of these. Indeed one such poll was the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (13th October 2013),  which estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 27%, Sinn Fein 19%, Labour 9%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 17%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 286, Fine Gael 280, Sinn Fein 162, Labour 63, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 158. But while the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll did estimate support for the government parties at a higher level than recent such polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C polls have consistently tended to rate support for the government parties at higher levels than the estimates associated with the other polling companies. One of the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C polls was published on 15th September 2013 and this estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 23%, Sinn Fein 17%, Labour 10%, Green Party 4%, Independents and Others 19%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fine Gael 293, Fianna Fail 242, Sinn Fein 143, Labour 76, Green Party 10, Independents and Others 184. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll was published on 27th September 2013 and this estimated national support levels for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 23%, Fianna Fail 29%, Sinn Fein 17%, Labour 9%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 20%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fine Gael 310, Fianna Fail 238, Sinn Fein 146, Labour 64, Green Party 10, Independents and Others 191.

 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (24th November 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	31%	40%	15%	2%	8%	6%
Muine Bheag	20%	36%	20%	3%	3%	19%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	36%	39%	1%	2%	17%	5%
Ballyjamesduff	28%	46%	1%	1%	21%	4%
Cavan-Belturbert	26%	38%	4%	0%	24%	7%
Ennis	23%	34%	1%	3%	2%	37%
Killaloe	33%	39%	12%	1%	2%	14%
Shannon	18%	34%	5%	1%	2%	41%
West Clare	46%	28%	1%	3%	2%	21%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	20%	45%	10%	3%	13%	9%
Bandon-Kinsale	23%	40%	14%	0%	15%	8%
Blarney-Macrooom	22%	37%	16%	2%	13%	10%
Cobh	13%	25%	10%	2%	19%	30%
East Cork	13%	25%	10%	2%	19%	30%
Fermoy	30%	35%	13%	0%	10%	11%
Kanturk-Mallow	19%	37%	11%	0%	12%	21%
West Cork	29%	39%	5%	2%	9%	16%
Donegal	24%	29%	3%	0%	13%	31%
Glenties	23%	13%	7%	0%	29%	28%
Inishowen	25%	29%	4%	2%	32%	7%
Letterkenny	35%	22%	3%	1%	16%	22%
Stranorlar	24%	22%	9%	0%	34%	10%
Balbriggan	9%	15%	26%	7%	8%	35%
Castleknock	18%	22%	14%	7%	7%	32%
Howth-Malahide	16%	22%	24%	6%	6%	26%
Mulhuddart	16%	16%	21%	0%	22%	24%
Swords	14%	21%	21%	3%	10%	32%
Clondalkin	14%	17%	16%	3%	33%	16%
Lucan	12%	33%	15%	4%	8%	29%
Tallaght Central	9%	15%	20%	1%	27%	28%
Tallaght South	11%	7%	18%	4%	51%	9%
Templeogue Terenure	17%	29%	18%	3%	10%	24%
Rathfarnham	23%	36%	18%	5%	9%	9%
Blackrock	17%	39%	20%	6%	2%	16%
Dun Laoghaire	10%	34%	14%	5%	3%	35%
Dundrum	16%	32%	17%	6%	8%	20%
Glencullen-Sandyford	19%	32%	29%	5%	13%	2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	11%	29%	30%	4%	8%	18%
Stillorgan	17%	33%	13%	5%	3%	29%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	20%	39%	16%	1%	4%	21%
Ballinasloe	21%	39%	1%	0%	24%	15%
Connemara	25%	23%	1%	1%	18%	31%
Loughrea	17%	36%	2%	2%	2%	42%
Tuam	24%	39%	12%	1%	3%	21%
Killarney	17%	15%	10%	0%	7%	51%
Listowel	22%	24%	14%	0%	38%	2%
South and West Kerry	32%	38%	4%	2%	2%	22%
Tralee	17%	16%	20%	1%	38%	7%
Athy	30%	34%	26%	1%	2%	7%
Celbridge	12%	19%	31%	5%	2%	32%
Maynooth (Clane)	26%	28%	12%	2%	4%	29%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	26%	27%	15%	2%	9%	21%
Naas	19%	31%	18%	7%	3%	22%
Castlecomer	20%	40%	20%	1%	8%	12%
Kilkenny City-East	30%	32%	10%	4%	6%	19%
Kilkenny City-West	22%	31%	19%	5%	9%	15%
Piltown	25%	47%	14%	1%	8%	5%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	37%	36%	7%	0%	9%	11%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	31%	32%	3%	1%	13%	21%
Portlaoise	20%	35%	4%	0%	28%	13%
Ballinamore	24%	33%	2%	1%	36%	4%
Carrick on Shannon	33%	23%	5%	2%	8%	30%
Manorhamilton	21%	37%	1%	1%	24%	16%
Ballymahon	25%	46%	2%	1%	6%	21%
Granard	39%	43%	2%	1%	3%	12%
Longford Town	26%	30%	2%	1%	6%	35%
Ardee	21%	27%	5%	4%	28%	14%
Drogheda	18%	25%	18%	3%	26%	9%
Dundalk Carlingford	19%	18%	2%	4%	42%	15%
Dundalk South	18%	17%	3%	9%	35%	19%
Ballina	28%	44%	4%	0%	12%	12%
Castlebar	23%	33%	3%	0%	14%	25%
Claremorris	27%	42%	1%	0%	13%	17%
West Mayo	24%	41%	3%	0%	20%	12%
Ashbourne	23%	24%	10%	1%	11%	30%
Ratoath	27%	26%	10%	1%	4%	33%
Kells	35%	33%	7%	0%	22%	2%
Navan	21%	22%	8%	2%	29%	19%
Laytown-Bettystown	18%	23%	13%	3%	12%	30%
Trim	26%	32%	11%	1%	10%	21%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	28%	25%	1%	2%	42%	2%
Ballybay-Clones	22%	26%	1%	2%	43%	5%
Monaghan	12%	15%	1%	2%	52%	17%
Edenderry	33%	19%	5%	1%	7%	36%
Tullamore	28%	26%	5%	0%	13%	27%
Birr	32%	29%	2%	0%	2%	35%
Boyle	25%	40%	1%	0%	10%	24%
Roscommon	21%	29%	1%	0%	8%	40%
Athlone (Roscommon)	30%	29%	1%	1%	7%	32%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	23%	35%	3%	0%	12%	27%
Sligo	22%	35%	9%	0%	21%	13%
Nenagh	27%	24%	10%	0%	10%	30%
Templemore-Thurles	29%	21%	10%	0%	2%	38%
Carrick on Suir	22%	40%	10%	0%	9%	19%
Clonmel	26%	30%	12%	2%	2%	27%
Cashel-Tipperary	25%	43%	8%	0%	3%	21%
Athlone	38%	38%	8%	0%	12%	4%
Mullingar-Coole	30%	27%	28%	1%	7%	7%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	32%	29%	25%	1%	5%	8%
Enniscorthy	24%	37%	10%	0%	11%	17%
Gorey	28%	34%	10%	0%	13%	14%
New Ross	33%	26%	6%	4%	25%	5%
Wexford	17%	26%	18%	2%	14%	23%
Arklow	32%	29%	23%	1%	5%	10%
Baltinglass	14%	28%	6%	2%	16%	35%
Bray	14%	16%	15%	4%	25%	25%
Greystones	13%	54%	15%	4%	7%	8%
Wicklow	23%	23%	22%	5%	26%	2%
Cork City North Central	16%	12%	15%	1%	15%	40%
Cork City North East	16%	23%	15%	4%	16%	26%
Cork City North West	15%	10%	11%	1%	37%	26%
Cork City South Central	17%	14%	20%	3%	22%	25%
Cork City South East	17%	34%	11%	2%	15%	21%
Cork City South West	20%	32%	17%	4%	24%	3%
Ballymun	19%	16%	30%	2%	25%	9%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	8%	10%	18%	1%	20%	43%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	14%	13%	22%	0%	42%	9%
Cabra-Finglas	21%	9%	16%	2%	35%	16%
Clontarf	19%	29%	15%	2%	8%	28%
Crumlin-Kimmage	11%	9%	26%	4%	20%	31%
North Inner City	7%	6%	18%	3%	28%	37%
Rathgar-Rathmines	17%	26%	30%	7%	5%	14%
Pembroke-South Dock	13%	22%	30%	4%	15%	16%
Galway City Central	25%	19%	28%	4%	5%	19%
Galway City East	20%	21%	19%	2%	10%	29%
Galway City West	14%	19%	8%	6%	4%	49%
Limerick City North	13%	27%	13%	3%	18%	27%
Limerick City East	22%	41%	12%	1%	4%	19%
Limerick City West	18%	42%	15%	1%	4%	20%
Adare-Rathkeale	29%	47%	11%	0%	2%	11%
Newcastle West	31%	54%	7%	0%	6%	2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	38%	35%	13%	1%	4%	9%
Dungarvan-Lismore	21%	41%	15%	0%	16%	6%
Comeragh	33%	47%	11%	1%	2%	5%
Tramore-Waterford City West	12%	26%	12%	1%	21%	28%
Waterford City South	11%	20%	11%	1%	18%	40%
Waterford City East	14%	27%	10%	2%	13%	34%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	3	5	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	3	2	0	0	1
Bailieborough-Cootehill	2	3	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	3	0	0	1	0
Ennis	2	3	0	0	0	3
Killaloe	2	3	0	0	0	1
Shannon	1	2	0	0	0	3
West Clare	4	2	0	0	0	2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	2	5	1	0	1	1
Bandon-Kinsale	2	2	1	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	1	3	1	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	1	0	1	2
East Cork	1	2	0	0	1	2
Fermoy	2	3	1	0	0	0
Kanturk-Mallow	1	2	0	0	1	2
West Cork	3	4	0	0	0	1
Donegal	1	2	0	0	1	2
Glenties	1	1	0	0	2	2
Inishowen	3	3	0	0	3	0
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	3	0
Balbriggan	1	1	2	0	0	4
Castleknock	1	2	1	0	0	3
Howth-Malahide	2	2	1	0	0	3
Mulhuddart	1	1	2	0	2	2
Swords	1	2	2	0	1	3
Clondalkin	1	2	1	0	3	1
Lucan	1	3	1	0	0	3
Tallaght Central	0	1	1	0	2	2
Tallaght South	1	0	1	0	4	0
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	0	2
Rathfarnham	2	3	1	0	0	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	3	1	0	0	3
Dundrum	1	3	1	0	0	2
Glencullen-Sandyford	1	3	2	0	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	1	2	1	0	0	2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	1	3	1	0	0	2
Ballinasloe	1	2	0	0	2	1
Connemara	2	2	0	0	2	3
Loughrea	1	3	0	0	0	4
Tuam	2	4	1	0	0	2
Killarney	2	1	0	0	0	5
Listowel	1	2	1	0	3	0
South and West Kerry	3	4	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	1	2	0	4	0
Athy	2	2	2	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	2	3	1	0	0	3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	2	3	1	0	1	2
Naas	2	3	2	0	0	2
Castlecomer	1	3	1	0	0	1
Kilkenny City-East	2	3	0	0	0	1
Kilkenny City-West	2	2	1	0	0	1
Piltown	2	3	1	0	0	0
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	3	3	0	0	0	0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	1	3	0	0	2	1
Ballinamore	2	2	0	0	2	0
Carrick on Shannon	2	2	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	1	3	0	0	1	1
Ballymahon	2	3	0	0	0	1
Granard	3	3	0	0	0	0
Longford Town	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ardee	1	2	0	0	2	1
Drogheda	2	2	2	0	3	1
Dundalk Carlingford	1	1	0	0	3	1
Dundalk South	1	1	0	0	3	2
Ballina	2	4	0	0	1	1
Castlebar	2	3	0	0	1	2
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	1	1
Ashbourne	1	2	0	0	1	2
Ratoath	2	2	0	0	0	3
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	2	0	0	2	1
Laytown-Bettystown	1	2	1	0	1	2
Trim	2	3	0	0	0	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	1	2	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	1	1	0	0	3	1
Edenderry	2	1	0	0	0	3
Tullamore	2	2	0	0	1	2
Birr	2	2	0	0	0	2
Boyle	1	3	0	0	0	2
Roscommon	1	2	0	0	0	3
Athlone (Roscommon)	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	3	0	0	1	2
Sligo	2	3	1	0	2	1
Nenagh	2	2	1	0	1	3
Templemore-Thurles	3	2	1	0	0	3
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	2	3	1	0	0	3
Cashel-Tipperary	2	4	0	0	0	1
Athlone	3	3	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	3	2	2	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	2	2	2	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	2	3	1	0	1	1
Gorey	2	3	1	0	1	1
New Ross	3	3	0	0	2	0
Wexford	2	3	2	0	1	2
Arklow	2	2	2	0	0	0
Baltinglass	1	2	0	0	1	2
Bray	1	1	1	0	3	2
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	0	0	1	3
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	1	1	0	1	1
Cork City South East	1	3	1	0	1	1
Cork City South West	1	2	1	0	2	0
Ballymun	1	1	3	0	2	0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	1	4
Beaumont-Donaghmede	2	1	2	0	3	1
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	1	0	3	1
Clontarf	1	2	1	0	0	2
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	2	0	1	2
North Inner City	0	0	2	0	2	4
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	2	2	0	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	3	0	1	2
Galway City Central	2	1	2	0	0	1
Galway City East	1	2	1	0	0	2
Galway City West	1	1	0	0	0	4
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	1	2
Limerick City East	2	3	1	0	0	2
Limerick City West	1	3	1	0	0	2
Adare-Rathkeale	2	4	0	0	0	0
Newcastle West	2	4	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	3	3	1	0	0	0
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	4	1	0	1	0
Comeragh	2	4	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	1	2
Waterford City South	0	1	1	0	1	3
Waterford City East	1	3	0	0	1	3
Total	224	311	94	0	125	197

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael.

Total	224	311	94	0	125	197
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	3%	-9%	-29%	-100%	131%	45%
	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	27	43	39	0	26	49
LEINSTER	80	100	30	0	35	48
MUNSTER	64	95	19	0	27	56
CONNACHT-ULSTER	53	73	6	0	37	44

On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 16%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 135% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 74%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 51% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 22%.

***********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Paddy Power-Red C (7th November 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	35%	36%	11%	2%	9%	7%
Muine Bheag	22%	32%	16%	3%	4%	24%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	39%	33%	1%	2%	18%	6%
Ballyjamesduff	31%	40%	1%	1%	23%	4%
Cavan-Belturbert	29%	33%	3%	0%	26%	9%
Ennis	24%	28%	1%	3%	3%	42%
Killaloe	37%	34%	9%	1%	2%	17%
Shannon	19%	28%	3%	1%	2%	47%
West Clare	48%	23%	1%	3%	2%	24%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	23%	40%	8%	3%	15%	12%
Bandon-Kinsale	26%	36%	11%	0%	17%	10%
Blarney-Macrooom	26%	33%	12%	2%	14%	12%
Cobh	13%	21%	7%	2%	20%	35%
East Cork	13%	21%	7%	2%	20%	35%
Fermoy	34%	31%	10%	0%	11%	14%
Kanturk-Mallow	21%	32%	9%	0%	13%	25%
West Cork	31%	34%	4%	2%	10%	19%
Donegal	25%	24%	2%	0%	13%	35%
Glenties	23%	11%	5%	0%	29%	32%
Inishowen	27%	25%	3%	2%	34%	9%
Letterkenny	36%	18%	2%	1%	17%	26%
Stranorlar	26%	19%	7%	0%	36%	12%
Balbriggan	10%	13%	19%	7%	9%	42%
Castleknock	19%	18%	10%	7%	8%	38%
Howth-Malahide	18%	19%	18%	6%	7%	31%
Mulhuddart	17%	14%	16%	0%	24%	28%
Swords	15%	18%	16%	3%	10%	38%
Clondalkin	16%	15%	12%	3%	35%	20%
Lucan	13%	29%	11%	4%	8%	35%
Tallaght Central	10%	13%	15%	1%	28%	33%
Tallaght South	12%	6%	13%	4%	54%	11%
Templeogue Terenure	19%	25%	14%	3%	10%	30%
Rathfarnham	27%	33%	14%	5%	11%	11%
Blackrock	20%	36%	16%	6%	2%	20%
Dun Laoghaire	11%	29%	11%	5%	3%	42%
Dundrum	18%	29%	13%	6%	9%	24%
Glencullen-Sandyford	23%	30%	24%	5%	15%	2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	12%	27%	24%	5%	9%	23%
Stillorgan	19%	28%	10%	5%	3%	35%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	22%	35%	12%	1%	5%	26%
Ballinasloe	22%	33%	1%	0%	25%	18%
Connemara	25%	19%	1%	1%	18%	36%
Loughrea	17%	29%	2%	2%	2%	48%
Tuam	26%	34%	9%	1%	3%	26%
Killarney	18%	12%	7%	0%	7%	57%
Listowel	24%	21%	11%	0%	41%	2%
South and West Kerry	35%	32%	3%	2%	2%	26%
Tralee	19%	14%	16%	1%	41%	9%
Athy	35%	31%	21%	1%	2%	9%
Celbridge	13%	17%	24%	5%	2%	39%
Maynooth (Clane)	28%	24%	9%	2%	4%	34%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	29%	23%	11%	2%	9%	26%
Naas	21%	28%	14%	8%	3%	27%
Castlecomer	23%	37%	16%	1%	9%	15%
Kilkenny City-East	33%	28%	7%	4%	6%	23%
Kilkenny City-West	25%	27%	15%	5%	10%	18%
Piltown	29%	43%	11%	1%	9%	7%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	40%	31%	5%	0%	9%	13%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	32%	26%	2%	0%	13%	25%
Portlaoise	22%	30%	3%	0%	29%	15%
Ballinamore	27%	28%	1%	1%	38%	5%
Carrick on Shannon	35%	19%	3%	1%	8%	34%
Manorhamilton	22%	32%	1%	1%	25%	19%
Ballymahon	27%	39%	2%	1%	6%	25%
Granard	43%	37%	1%	1%	4%	14%
Longford Town	27%	25%	1%	1%	6%	40%
Ardee	23%	23%	4%	4%	30%	16%
Drogheda	21%	22%	14%	3%	28%	11%
Dundalk Carlingford	19%	15%	2%	4%	43%	18%
Dundalk South	18%	14%	2%	8%	36%	22%
Ballina	31%	39%	3%	0%	13%	14%
Castlebar	25%	28%	3%	0%	15%	30%
Claremorris	29%	36%	1%	0%	13%	20%
West Mayo	26%	35%	2%	0%	21%	15%
Ashbourne	25%	20%	8%	1%	11%	35%
Ratoath	28%	22%	7%	1%	4%	38%
Kells	39%	29%	6%	0%	24%	3%
Navan	22%	18%	5%	2%	30%	23%
Laytown-Bettystown	19%	20%	10%	3%	13%	36%
Trim	28%	28%	8%	1%	11%	25%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	30%	21%	1%	2%	44%	2%
Ballybay-Clones	24%	22%	1%	2%	45%	6%
Monaghan	13%	12%	1%	2%	53%	20%
Edenderry	34%	15%	4%	1%	7%	40%
Tullamore	30%	21%	3%	0%	14%	31%
Birr	33%	24%	1%	0%	2%	40%
Boyle	26%	34%	1%	0%	11%	28%
Roscommon	22%	24%	1%	0%	8%	45%
Athlone (Roscommon)	32%	24%	1%	1%	7%	36%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	25%	29%	2%	0%	12%	32%
Sligo	24%	31%	7%	0%	22%	15%
Nenagh	28%	20%	7%	0%	10%	34%
Templemore-Thurles	30%	17%	7%	0%	2%	43%
Carrick on Suir	25%	35%	8%	0%	10%	23%
Clonmel	28%	26%	9%	2%	2%	32%
Cashel-Tipperary	28%	37%	6%	0%	3%	25%
Athlone	43%	33%	6%	0%	13%	5%
Mullingar-Coole	34%	25%	22%	1%	8%	9%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	37%	26%	20%	1%	6%	10%
Enniscorthy	27%	33%	8%	0%	12%	21%
Gorey	31%	30%	7%	0%	14%	17%
New Ross	36%	22%	5%	4%	27%	6%
Wexford	18%	23%	14%	2%	15%	28%
Arklow	36%	26%	18%	1%	5%	13%
Baltinglass	15%	23%	4%	1%	16%	41%
Bray	15%	14%	11%	4%	27%	29%
Greystones	15%	50%	12%	4%	9%	11%
Wicklow	26%	21%	18%	5%	29%	2%
Cork City North Central	17%	10%	11%	1%	15%	46%
Cork City North East	17%	19%	11%	4%	17%	31%
Cork City North West	15%	8%	8%	1%	38%	30%
Cork City South Central	18%	12%	15%	3%	23%	30%
Cork City South East	19%	29%	8%	2%	16%	26%
Cork City South West	23%	29%	13%	4%	27%	3%
Ballymun	22%	14%	23%	2%	28%	12%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	8%	8%	13%	1%	20%	49%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	15%	12%	17%	0%	45%	11%
Cabra-Finglas	23%	8%	12%	2%	36%	19%
Clontarf	20%	25%	11%	2%	9%	33%
Crumlin-Kimmage	12%	8%	19%	4%	21%	36%
North Inner City	7%	5%	13%	3%	29%	43%
Rathgar-Rathmines	19%	24%	24%	8%	6%	18%
Pembroke-South Dock	15%	20%	23%	4%	17%	20%
Galway City Central	29%	17%	22%	4%	5%	23%
Galway City East	22%	18%	14%	2%	10%	34%
Galway City West	14%	16%	5%	6%	4%	55%
Limerick City North	14%	23%	9%	3%	19%	33%
Limerick City East	25%	36%	9%	1%	5%	24%
Limerick City West	20%	38%	11%	1%	5%	25%
Adare-Rathkeale	32%	42%	8%	1%	2%	14%
Newcastle West	35%	49%	5%	0%	7%	3%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	43%	31%	10%	1%	4%	11%
Dungarvan-Lismore	25%	37%	12%	0%	18%	8%
Comeragh	38%	43%	9%	1%	3%	6%
Tramore-Waterford City West	13%	22%	9%	1%	22%	33%
Waterford City South	11%	16%	8%	1%	18%	45%
Waterford City East	15%	23%	7%	2%	14%	39%
	24%	25%	9%	2%	16%	24%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	4	4	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	3	1	0	0	2
Bailieborough-Cootehill	3	2	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ennis	2	3	0	0	0	3
Killaloe	3	2	0	0	0	1
Shannon	1	2	0	0	0	3
West Clare	4	2	0	0	0	2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	2	5	1	0	1	1
Bandon-Kinsale	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	2	2	1	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	0	0	1	3
East Cork	1	2	0	0	1	2
Fermoy	3	2	0	0	0	1
Kanturk-Mallow	1	2	0	0	1	2
West Cork	3	3	0	0	1	1
Donegal	2	1	0	0	1	2
Glenties	1	1	0	0	2	2
Inishowen	3	2	0	0	3	1
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	2	1
Balbriggan	1	1	2	0	0	4
Castleknock	2	1	1	0	0	3
Howth-Malahide	2	2	1	0	0	3
Mulhuddart	2	1	1	0	2	2
Swords	1	2	1	0	1	4
Clondalkin	1	1	1	0	3	2
Lucan	1	3	1	0	0	3
Tallaght Central	0	1	1	0	2	2
Tallaght South	1	0	1	0	3	1
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	0	2
Rathfarnham	2	3	1	0	0	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	2	1	0	0	4
Dundrum	1	3	1	0	0	2
Glencullen-Sandyford	2	2	2	0	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	1	2	0	0	0	3
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	1	3	1	0	0	2
Ballinasloe	1	2	0	0	2	1
Connemara	2	2	0	0	2	3
Loughrea	1	2	0	0	0	5
Tuam	2	3	1	0	0	3
Killarney	2	1	0	0	0	5
Listowel	2	2	0	0	3	0
South and West Kerry	4	3	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	1	1	0	4	1
Athy	3	2	1	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	3	2	1	0	0	3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	3	2	1	0	1	2
Naas	2	3	1	0	0	3
Castlecomer	1	3	1	0	0	1
Kilkenny City-East	3	2	0	0	0	1
Kilkenny City-West	2	2	1	0	0	1
Piltown	2	3	1	0	0	0
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	3	2	0	0	0	1
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	2	2	0	0	2	1
Ballinamore	2	2	0	0	2	0
Carrick on Shannon	3	1	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	1	2	0	0	2	1
Ballymahon	2	3	0	0	0	1
Granard	3	2	0	0	0	1
Longford Town	2	1	0	0	0	3
Ardee	1	2	0	0	2	1
Drogheda	2	3	1	0	3	1
Dundalk Carlingford	1	1	0	0	3	1
Dundalk South	1	1	0	0	3	2
Ballina	3	3	0	0	1	1
Castlebar	2	2	0	0	1	3
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	1	1
Ashbourne	2	1	0	0	0	3
Ratoath	2	2	0	0	0	3
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	1	0	0	2	2
Laytown-Bettystown	1	1	1	0	1	3
Trim	2	2	0	0	1	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	2	1	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	1	1	0	0	3	1
Edenderry	2	1	0	0	0	3
Tullamore	2	2	0	0	1	2
Birr	2	1	0	0	0	3
Boyle	2	2	0	0	0	2
Roscommon	1	2	0	0	0	3
Athlone (Roscommon)	2	1	0	0	0	3
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	2	0	0	1	3
Sligo	2	3	0	0	2	2
Nenagh	3	2	0	0	1	3
Templemore-Thurles	3	2	0	0	0	4
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	3	2	1	0	0	3
Cashel-Tipperary	2	3	0	0	0	2
Athlone	3	3	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	3	2	2	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	3	2	1	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	2	3	0	0	1	2
Gorey	3	3	0	0	1	1
New Ross	4	2	0	0	2	0
Wexford	2	3	1	0	1	3
Arklow	2	2	1	0	0	1
Baltinglass	1	1	0	0	1	3
Bray	1	1	1	0	2	3
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	0	0	1	3
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	0	1	0	1	2
Cork City South East	1	3	0	0	1	2
Cork City South West	1	2	1	0	2	0
Ballymun	1	1	2	0	2	1
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	1	4
Beaumont-Donaghmede	2	1	2	0	3	1
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	1	0	3	1
Clontarf	1	2	0	0	0	3
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	1	0	1	3
North Inner City	0	0	1	0	3	4
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	2	2	0	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	2	0	1	2
Galway City Central	2	1	1	0	0	2
Galway City East	1	1	1	0	1	2
Galway City West	1	1	0	0	0	4
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	1	2
Limerick City East	2	3	1	0	0	2
Limerick City West	1	3	1	0	0	2
Adare-Rathkeale	2	3	0	0	0	1
Newcastle West	2	4	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	4	2	0	0	0	1
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	4	1	0	1	0
Comeragh	3	3	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	1	2
Waterford City South	1	1	0	0	1	3
Waterford City East	1	1	0	0	1	3
Total	253	266	65	0	127	237
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	16%	-22%	-51%	-100%	135%	74%

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 16%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 135% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 74%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 51% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 22%.

	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	30	39	31	0	26	57
LEINSTER	90	86	21	0	34	62
MUNSTER	74	83	9	0	28	65
CONNACHT-ULSTER	59	58	4	0	39	53

As the table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for close to half (31 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. But support trends in Dublin generally tend to be more volatile than in other parts of the state and Labour could be in even more serious trouble if the swing against the party proves to be stronger here than in other parts of the state, which could very well prove to be the case. 

**********************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown (7th July 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	40%	35%	10%	0%	10%	5%
Muine Bheag	29%	35%	15%	5%	0%	17%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	42%	31%	0%	3%	20%	4%
Ballyjamesduff	34%	38%	0%	0%	26%	3%
Cavan-Belturbert	32%	31%	3%	0%	29%	6%
Ennis	30%	30%	1%	5%	3%	30%
Killaloe	45%	36%	8%	0%	0%	11%
Shannon	26%	34%	3%	0%	0%	37%
West Clare	56%	23%	0%	5%	0%	16%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	26%	39%	7%	4%	17%	7%
Bandon-Kinsale	30%	35%	9%	0%	20%	6%
Blarney-Macrooom	29%	33%	10%	3%	16%	8%
Cobh	17%	23%	7%	4%	25%	25%
East Cork	17%	23%	7%	4%	25%	25%
Fermoy	39%	31%	9%	0%	13%	9%
Kanturk-Mallow	25%	34%	8%	0%	16%	17%
West Cork	36%	34%	3%	3%	11%	13%
Donegal	31%	25%	2%	0%	16%	25%
Glenties	28%	11%	4%	0%	35%	22%
Inishowen	30%	23%	2%	3%	37%	5%
Letterkenny	42%	18%	2%	2%	19%	17%
Stranorlar	29%	18%	6%	0%	40%	8%
Balbriggan	13%	14%	18%	12%	11%	30%
Castleknock	23%	20%	9%	12%	10%	26%
Howth-Malahide	23%	21%	17%	10%	8%	22%
Mulhuddart	21%	15%	15%	0%	30%	20%
Swords	19%	20%	15%	5%	13%	27%
Clondalkin	18%	15%	10%	5%	40%	13%
Lucan	17%	31%	10%	7%	10%	25%
Tallaght Central	13%	14%	14%	1%	35%	23%
Tallaght South	13%	6%	11%	6%	58%	7%
Templeogue Terenure	23%	27%	12%	4%	13%	20%
Rathfarnham	30%	32%	12%	8%	12%	7%
Blackrock	24%	38%	15%	10%	0%	14%
Dun Laoghaire	14%	33%	10%	8%	4%	31%
Dundrum	22%	29%	12%	10%	10%	16%
Glencullen-Sandyford	25%	29%	20%	8%	17%	1%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	15%	29%	22%	8%	11%	16%
Stillorgan	23%	31%	9%	9%	4%	25%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	28%	37%	11%	0%	6%	18%
Ballinasloe	26%	33%	0%	0%	29%	12%
Connemara	32%	20%	0%	0%	23%	25%
Loughrea	24%	35%	2%	3%	0%	37%
Tuam	33%	37%	8%	0%	4%	18%
Killarney	24%	15%	7%	1%	9%	44%
Listowel	26%	20%	9%	0%	45%	0%
South and West Kerry	41%	33%	3%	3%	3%	17%
Tralee	21%	13%	13%	2%	45%	6%
Athy	43%	33%	19%	0%	0%	6%
Celbridge	18%	20%	24%	9%	0%	30%
Maynooth (Clane)	37%	28%	9%	0%	0%	26%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	34%	24%	10%	3%	11%	17%
Naas	26%	30%	13%	13%	0%	19%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	46%	31%	5%	0%	11%	8%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	39%	27%	2%	0%	16%	17%
Portlaoise	25%	30%	2%	0%	34%	10%
Ballinamore	30%	27%	0%	0%	43%	0%
Carrick on Shannon	42%	20%	3%	2%	9%	24%
Manorhamilton	26%	31%	0%	2%	29%	12%
Ballymahon	33%	41%	2%	0%	7%	17%
Granard	50%	37%	0%	0%	4%	9%
Longford Town	35%	28%	1%	0%	7%	29%
Ardee	25%	22%	3%	7%	33%	10%
Drogheda	23%	22%	12%	5%	32%	7%
Dundalk Carlingford	21%	14%	1%	5%	47%	11%
Dundalk South	20%	14%	2%	12%	39%	13%
Ballina	36%	38%	2%	0%	14%	9%
Castlebar	30%	29%	2%	0%	18%	20%
Claremorris	35%	36%	0%	0%	16%	13%
West Mayo	30%	35%	2%	0%	24%	9%
Ashbourne	31%	22%	7%	2%	14%	24%
Ratoath	36%	24%	7%	1%	5%	27%
Kells	41%	26%	4%	0%	26%	2%
Navan	25%	18%	5%	3%	34%	15%
Laytown-Bettystown	24%	21%	9%	5%	16%	25%
Trim	34%	29%	7%	0%	13%	17%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	31%	19%	1%	3%	46%	1%
Ballybay-Clones	25%	20%	1%	3%	48%	3%
Monaghan	14%	12%	0%	3%	59%	12%
Edenderry	43%	17%	3%	0%	8%	29%
Tullamore	36%	22%	3%	0%	17%	21%
Birr	43%	27%	1%	0%	0%	29%
Boyle	32%	35%	0%	0%	13%	19%
Roscommon	29%	27%	0%	0%	11%	34%
Athlone (Roscommon)	40%	26%	0%	0%	9%	25%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	30%	31%	2%	0%	15%	22%
Sligo	28%	30%	6%	0%	26%	10%
Nenagh	35%	22%	7%	0%	12%	24%
Templemore-Thurles	41%	20%	7%	0%	0%	33%
Carrick on Suir	30%	36%	7%	0%	12%	16%
Clonmel	35%	28%	8%	3%	3%	22%
Cashel-Tipperary	36%	41%	6%	0%	0%	18%
Athlone	47%	31%	5%	0%	15%	3%
Mullingar-Coole	39%	25%	19%	2%	9%	6%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	43%	26%	17%	0%	7%	7%
Enniscorthy	32%	33%	7%	0%	14%	14%
Gorey	36%	30%	6%	0%	17%	11%
New Ross	38%	20%	4%	6%	28%	4%
Wexford	23%	24%	12%	4%	18%	19%
Arklow	42%	26%	16%	2%	6%	8%
Baltinglass	19%	25%	4%	3%	20%	29%
Bray	18%	14%	10%	7%	32%	19%
Greystones	17%	50%	10%	6%	10%	7%
Wicklow	28%	19%	14%	7%	31%	1%
Cork City North Central	22%	11%	11%	1%	20%	34%
Cork City North East	21%	20%	10%	7%	20%	21%
Cork City North West	18%	9%	7%	1%	45%	20%
Cork City South Central	22%	12%	13%	4%	28%	20%
Cork City South East	22%	30%	7%	4%	19%	17%
Cork City South West	25%	27%	11%	6%	30%	0%
Ballymun	25%	14%	20%	3%	32%	8%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	11%	10%	13%	3%	27%	37%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	17%	11%	14%	0%	51%	7%
Cabra-Finglas	26%	8%	10%	4%	41%	12%
Clontarf	25%	26%	10%	4%	11%	23%
Crumlin-Kimmage	15%	8%	18%	7%	27%	26%
North Inner City	9%	6%	12%	5%	37%	31%
Rathgar-Rathmines	23%	24%	21%	13%	7%	12%
Pembroke-South Dock	18%	20%	21%	7%	20%	13%
Galway City Central	34%	18%	19%	7%	6%	15%
Galway City East	27%	20%	13%	4%	13%	24%
Galway City West	19%	18%	5%	11%	5%	42%
Limerick City North	17%	24%	9%	4%	23%	23%
Limerick City East	30%	38%	8%	2%	6%	16%
Limerick City West	25%	41%	10%	0%	6%	18%
Adare-Rathkeale	39%	44%	7%	0%	0%	10%
Newcastle West	39%	47%	4%	0%	8%	2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	48%	30%	8%	1%	5%	7%
Dungarvan-Lismore	28%	36%	10%	0%	20%	5%
Comeragh	45%	43%	8%	0%	0%	4%
Tramore-Waterford City West	16%	24%	8%	2%	27%	23%
Waterford City South	15%	18%	8%	1%	24%	34%
Waterford City East	19%	25%	7%	3%	18%	28%
	29%	26%	8%	3%	19%	16%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	4	4	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	3	1	0	0	2
Bailieborough-Cootehill	3	2	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	2	0	0	2	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ennis	3	3	0	0	0	2
Killaloe	3	3	0	0	0	0
Shannon	2	2	0	0	0	2
West Clare	5	2	0	0	0	1
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	3	5	0	0	2	0
Bandon-Kinsale	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	0	0	2	2
East Cork	1	1	0	0	2	2
Fermoy	3	2	0	0	1	0
Kanturk-Mallow	2	2	0	0	1	1
West Cork	3	3	0	0	1	1
Donegal	2	2	0	0	1	1
Glenties	2	0	0	0	3	1
Inishowen	3	2	0	0	4	0
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	3	0
Balbriggan	1	1	1	1	1	3
Castleknock	2	2	0	1	0	2
Howth-Malahide	2	2	1	1	0	2
Mulhuddart	2	1	1	0	3	1
Swords	2	2	1	0	1	3
Clondalkin	1	1	1	0	4	1
Lucan	1	3	1	0	1	2
Tallaght Central	1	1	1	0	2	1
Tallaght South	1	0	0	0	5	0
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rathfarnham	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	3	1	0	0	3
Dundrum	2	2	1	1	0	1
Glencullen-Sandyford	2	2	2	0	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	2	2	0	0	0	2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	2	3	1	0	0	1
Ballinasloe	2	2	0	0	2	0
Connemara	3	2	0	0	2	2
Loughrea	2	3	0	0	0	3
Tuam	3	4	0	0	0	2
Killarney	2	1	0	0	1	4
Listowel	2	1	0	0	4	0
South and West Kerry	4	3	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	1	1	0	5	0
Athy	3	2	1	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	4	3	0	0	0	2
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	3	2	1	0	1	2
Naas	2	3	1	1	0	2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	4	2	0	0	0	0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	2	2	0	0	3	0
Ballinamore	2	1	0	0	3	0
Carrick on Shannon	3	1	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ballymahon	2	3	0	0	0	1
Granard	4	2	0	0	0	0
Longford Town	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ardee	2	2	0	0	2	0
Drogheda	3	2	1	0	4	0
Dundalk Carlingford	2	1	0	0	3	0
Dundalk South	1	1	0	1	3	1
Ballina	3	4	0	0	1	0
Castlebar	3	2	0	0	1	2
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	2	0
Ashbourne	2	1	0	0	1	2
Ratoath	3	2	0	0	0	2
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	1	0	0	3	1
Laytown-Bettystown	2	2	0	0	1	2
Trim	2	2	0	0	1	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	2	1	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	1	0	0	0	4	1
Edenderry	3	1	0	0	0	2
Tullamore	3	2	0	0	1	1
Birr	3	1	0	0	0	2
Boyle	2	2	0	0	1	1
Roscommon	2	2	0	0	0	2
Athlone (Roscommon)	3	2	0	0	0	1
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	3	0	0	1	2
Sligo	3	3	0	0	3	1
Nenagh	4	2	0	0	1	2
Templemore-Thurles	4	2	0	0	0	3
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	4	3	0	0	0	2
Cashel-Tipperary	3	3	0	0	0	1
Athlone	4	2	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	4	2	1	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	3	2	1	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	3	3	0	0	1	1
Gorey	3	3	0	0	1	1
New Ross	4	2	0	0	2	0
Wexford	2	3	1	0	2	2
Arklow	3	2	1	0	0	0
Baltinglass	1	2	0	0	1	2
Bray	2	1	0	0	3	2
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	0	0	1	3
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	0	1	0	2	1
Cork City South East	2	3	0	0	1	1
Cork City South West	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ballymun	2	1	1	0	3	0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	2	3
Beaumont-Donaghmede	2	1	1	0	5	0
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	0	0	4	1
Clontarf	2	2	0	0	0	2
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	1	0	2	2
North Inner City	0	0	1	0	4	3
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	2	1	1	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	2	0	2	1
Galway City Central	3	1	1	0	0	1
Galway City East	2	1	1	0	1	1
Galway City West	1	1	0	1	0	3
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	2	1
Limerick City East	3	4	0	0	0	1
Limerick City West	2	4	0	0	0	1
Adare-Rathkeale	3	3	0	0	0	0
Newcastle West	3	3	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	3	1	0	2	0
Comeragh	3	3	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	2	1
Waterford City South	1	1	0	0	2	2
Waterford City East	1	2	0	0	1	2
Total	305	274	45	8	170	147
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	40%	-19%	-66%	167%	215%	8%

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 40%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 215%, the Green Party’s by 167% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 8%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 66% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 19%. There is a degree of over-estimation of Independent and Other seat numbers here, as I am treating them (as dictated by the large number of constituency units to be dealt with) here as if they were a coherent political grouping like the parties. But of course this group is a very broad church (including gene pool Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael independents, members of the Anti Austerity Alliance, community candidates, parties such as People Before Profit etc.) and will not have the same level of intra-party transfers that one would expect with the parties. But the likelihood would be that this grouping would be likely to make significant seat gains in any course on a 24% level of support (up around 6% on level won in the 2009 election). 

	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	36	40	23	5	42	37
LEINSTER	108	88	16	2	40	39
MUNSTER	89	86	3	0	40	41
CONNACHT-ULSTER	72	60	3	1	48	30

As the table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (23 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. But support trends in Dublin generally tend to be more volatile than in other parts of the state and Labour could be in even more serious trouble if the swing against the party proves to be stronger here than in other parts of the state, which could very well prove to be the case. 

****************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown (15th October 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	37%	37%	11%	1%	10%	5%
Muine Bheag	26%	35%	16%	1%	5%	17%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	41%	33%	1%	1%	20%	4%
Ballyjamesduff	32%	39%	1%	0%	25%	3%
Cavan-Belturbert	30%	33%	3%	0%	28%	6%
Ennis	29%	32%	1%	2%	3%	32%
Killaloe	41%	36%	9%	0%	3%	11%
Shannon	23%	33%	4%	0%	3%	37%
West Clare	54%	25%	1%	1%	2%	17%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	24%	42%	8%	1%	17%	8%
Bandon-Kinsale	27%	36%	10%	0%	19%	6%
Blarney-Macrooom	28%	35%	12%	1%	16%	8%
Cobh	16%	24%	8%	1%	25%	26%
East Cork	16%	24%	8%	1%	25%	26%
Fermoy	36%	32%	10%	0%	12%	9%
Kanturk-Mallow	23%	34%	9%	0%	16%	18%
West Cork	35%	36%	4%	1%	11%	13%
Donegal	29%	26%	2%	0%	16%	26%
Glenties	26%	12%	5%	0%	34%	23%
Inishowen	29%	25%	3%	1%	37%	6%
Letterkenny	40%	19%	2%	1%	20%	18%
Stranorlar	27%	19%	6%	0%	40%	8%
Balbriggan	13%	16%	22%	4%	12%	34%
Castleknock	23%	22%	11%	4%	10%	29%
Howth-Malahide	22%	23%	20%	3%	9%	24%
Mulhuddart	19%	15%	16%	0%	29%	20%
Swords	18%	21%	17%	1%	13%	29%
Clondalkin	17%	16%	12%	1%	40%	14%
Lucan	16%	33%	12%	2%	11%	26%
Tallaght Central	12%	14%	16%	0%	34%	24%
Tallaght South	13%	6%	12%	2%	59%	7%
Templeogue Terenure	22%	28%	14%	1%	13%	22%
Rathfarnham	29%	35%	14%	3%	12%	8%
Blackrock	23%	40%	17%	3%	3%	15%
Dun Laoghaire	14%	35%	12%	3%	4%	33%
Dundrum	22%	32%	14%	3%	11%	18%
Glencullen-Sandyford	24%	31%	23%	3%	17%	2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	14%	30%	25%	2%	11%	17%
Stillorgan	23%	33%	11%	3%	4%	27%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	25%	38%	13%	0%	5%	18%
Ballinasloe	24%	34%	1%	0%	29%	12%
Connemara	29%	21%	1%	1%	22%	26%
Loughrea	22%	35%	2%	1%	3%	38%
Tuam	30%	38%	9%	1%	4%	19%
Killarney	23%	15%	8%	0%	9%	46%
Listowel	24%	20%	10%	0%	44%	1%
South and West Kerry	39%	35%	3%	1%	3%	18%
Tralee	20%	14%	14%	1%	45%	6%
Athy	38%	33%	20%	0%	3%	6%
Celbridge	16%	20%	27%	3%	3%	31%
Maynooth (Clane)	33%	27%	9%	1%	5%	25%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	33%	26%	11%	1%	11%	18%
Naas	25%	32%	15%	4%	4%	21%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	43%	32%	5%	0%	11%	9%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	36%	28%	2%	0%	16%	17%
Portlaoise	23%	31%	3%	0%	33%	10%
Ballinamore	27%	27%	1%	0%	41%	3%
Carrick on Shannon	40%	21%	3%	1%	9%	25%
Manorhamilton	24%	33%	1%	1%	29%	13%
Ballymahon	30%	43%	2%	0%	7%	18%
Granard	46%	38%	1%	0%	4%	10%
Longford Town	32%	29%	1%	0%	7%	30%
Ardee	25%	24%	4%	2%	34%	11%
Drogheda	22%	23%	13%	2%	32%	8%
Dundalk Carlingford	21%	15%	2%	2%	49%	12%
Dundalk South	21%	16%	2%	4%	42%	15%
Ballina	33%	40%	3%	0%	14%	10%
Castlebar	28%	30%	3%	0%	18%	21%
Claremorris	32%	38%	1%	0%	15%	14%
West Mayo	28%	36%	2%	0%	24%	10%
Ashbourne	29%	23%	8%	1%	14%	26%
Ratoath	34%	25%	8%	0%	5%	29%
Kells	39%	28%	5%	0%	26%	2%
Navan	24%	19%	5%	1%	35%	16%
Laytown-Bettystown	23%	22%	10%	1%	16%	27%
Trim	32%	30%	8%	0%	13%	18%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	30%	20%	1%	1%	47%	1%
Ballybay-Clones	24%	22%	1%	1%	48%	4%
Monaghan	13%	13%	1%	1%	59%	13%
Edenderry	40%	17%	4%	0%	8%	30%
Tullamore	34%	23%	3%	0%	17%	22%
Birr	39%	27%	1%	0%	2%	30%
Boyle	30%	36%	1%	0%	13%	20%
Roscommon	26%	28%	1%	0%	10%	35%
Athlone (Roscommon)	37%	27%	1%	0%	9%	27%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	28%	32%	2%	0%	14%	23%
Sligo	26%	32%	7%	0%	25%	10%
Nenagh	33%	23%	7%	0%	12%	25%
Templemore-Thurles	37%	20%	7%	0%	3%	33%
Carrick on Suir	28%	37%	7%	0%	11%	16%
Clonmel	33%	29%	9%	1%	3%	24%
Cashel-Tipperary	32%	40%	6%	0%	3%	18%
Athlone	44%	33%	5%	0%	14%	3%
Mullingar-Coole	37%	26%	22%	1%	9%	6%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	40%	27%	19%	0%	7%	7%
Enniscorthy	30%	35%	7%	0%	14%	15%
Gorey	33%	31%	7%	0%	16%	12%
New Ross	38%	22%	4%	2%	30%	4%
Wexford	21%	25%	14%	1%	18%	20%
Arklow	40%	28%	18%	0%	6%	9%
Baltinglass	18%	26%	4%	1%	20%	30%
Bray	18%	15%	11%	2%	32%	21%
Greystones	16%	53%	12%	2%	10%	8%
Wicklow	27%	21%	16%	2%	32%	1%
Cork City North Central	21%	11%	12%	0%	20%	36%
Cork City North East	20%	22%	12%	2%	21%	23%
Cork City North West	17%	9%	8%	0%	45%	21%
Cork City South Central	21%	13%	15%	1%	28%	21%
Cork City South East	21%	32%	8%	1%	19%	18%
Cork City South West	24%	29%	13%	2%	30%	2%
Ballymun	23%	15%	22%	1%	31%	8%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	10%	10%	14%	1%	27%	38%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	16%	12%	16%	0%	50%	7%
Cabra-Finglas	25%	8%	11%	1%	42%	13%
Clontarf	24%	28%	12%	1%	11%	25%
Crumlin-Kimmage	14%	9%	21%	2%	27%	28%
North Inner City	8%	6%	14%	2%	37%	33%
Rathgar-Rathmines	23%	27%	25%	4%	8%	13%
Pembroke-South Dock	17%	22%	24%	2%	20%	14%
Galway City Central	33%	19%	22%	2%	6%	17%
Galway City East	26%	21%	15%	1%	13%	25%
Galway City West	19%	20%	6%	3%	6%	46%
Limerick City North	16%	25%	10%	1%	23%	24%
Limerick City East	28%	39%	9%	0%	6%	17%
Limerick City West	23%	41%	11%	0%	6%	18%
Adare-Rathkeale	35%	44%	8%	0%	2%	10%
Newcastle West	37%	49%	5%	0%	8%	2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	46%	32%	9%	0%	5%	8%
Dungarvan-Lismore	26%	37%	11%	0%	20%	5%
Comeragh	40%	44%	8%	0%	3%	4%
Tramore-Waterford City West	14%	25%	9%	1%	27%	24%
Waterford City South	14%	19%	9%	0%	24%	35%
Waterford City East	17%	26%	8%	1%	18%	30%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	4	4	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	4	1	0	0	1
Bailieborough-Cootehill	3	2	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ennis	2	3	0	0	0	3
Killaloe	3	3	0	0	0	0
Shannon	1	2	0	0	0	3
West Clare	5	2	0	0	0	1
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	3	5	0	0	2	0
Bandon-Kinsale	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	2	2	1	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	0	0	2	2
East Cork	1	1	0	0	2	2
Fermoy	3	2	0	0	1	0
Kanturk-Mallow	2	2	0	0	1	1
West Cork	3	3	0	0	1	1
Donegal	2	2	0	0	1	1
Glenties	2	1	0	0	2	1
Inishowen	3	2	0	0	4	0
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	3	0
Balbriggan	1	1	2	0	1	3
Castleknock	2	1	1	0	1	2
Howth-Malahide	2	2	2	0	0	2
Mulhuddart	1	1	2	0	2	2
Swords	2	2	1	0	1	3
Clondalkin	1	1	1	0	4	1
Lucan	1	3	1	0	0	3
Tallaght Central	0	1	1	0	2	2
Tallaght South	1	0	1	0	4	0
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rathfarnham	2	2	1	0	1	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	3	1	0	0	3
Dundrum	2	3	1	0	0	1
Glencullen-Sandyford	2	2	2	0	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	2	2	0	0	0	2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	2	3	1	0	0	1
Ballinasloe	1	2	0	0	2	1
Connemara	3	2	0	0	2	2
Loughrea	2	3	0	0	0	3
Tuam	3	4	0	0	0	2
Killarney	2	1	0	0	0	5
Listowel	2	1	0	0	4	0
South and West Kerry	4	3	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	1	1	0	5	0
Athy	3	2	1	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	3	3	1	0	0	2
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	3	2	1	0	1	2
Naas	3	3	1	0	0	2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	4	2	0	0	0	0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	2	2	0	0	3	0
Ballinamore	1	2	0	0	3	0
Carrick on Shannon	3	1	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	1	2	0	0	2	1
Ballymahon	2	3	0	0	0	1
Granard	3	3	0	0	0	0
Longford Town	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ardee	2	2	0	0	2	0
Drogheda	2	3	1	0	4	0
Dundalk Carlingford	1	1	0	0	3	1
Dundalk South	2	1	0	0	3	1
Ballina	3	4	0	0	1	0
Castlebar	2	3	0	0	1	2
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	2	0
Ashbourne	2	1	0	0	1	2
Ratoath	3	2	0	0	0	2
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	1	0	0	3	1
Laytown-Bettystown	2	2	0	0	1	2
Trim	2	2	0	0	1	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	2	1	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	1	0	0	0	4	1
Edenderry	3	1	0	0	0	2
Tullamore	3	2	0	0	1	1
Birr	2	2	0	0	0	2
Boyle	2	2	0	0	1	1
Roscommon	2	2	0	0	0	2
Athlone (Roscommon)	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	3	0	0	1	2
Sligo	3	3	0	0	3	1
Nenagh	3	2	0	0	1	3
Templemore-Thurles	4	2	0	0	0	3
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	3	3	1	0	0	2
Cashel-Tipperary	3	3	0	0	0	1
Athlone	4	2	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	3	2	2	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	3	2	1	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	3	3	0	0	1	1
Gorey	3	3	0	0	1	1
New Ross	3	2	0	0	3	0
Wexford	2	3	1	0	2	2
Arklow	3	2	1	0	0	0
Baltinglass	1	2	0	0	1	2
Bray	1	1	1	0	3	2
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	1	0	1	2
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	0	1	0	2	1
Cork City South East	2	3	0	0	1	1
Cork City South West	1	2	1	0	2	0
Ballymun	2	1	2	0	2	0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	2	3
Beaumont-Donaghmede	2	1	1	0	5	0
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	1	0	3	1
Clontarf	2	2	0	0	0	2
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	1	0	2	2
North Inner City	1	0	1	0	3	3
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	2	2	0	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	2	0	2	1
Galway City Central	2	1	2	0	0	1
Galway City East	2	1	1	0	1	1
Galway City West	1	1	0	0	0	4
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	1	2
Limerick City East	3	4	0	0	0	1
Limerick City West	2	3	1	0	0	1
Adare-Rathkeale	3	3	0	0	0	0
Newcastle West	3	3	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	3	1	0	2	0
Comeragh	3	3	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	2	1
Waterford City South	1	1	0	0	2	2
Waterford City East	1	2	0	0	1	2
Total	286	280	63	0	162	158
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	31%	-18%	-52%	-100%	200%	16%

Again, as with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis.

	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	35	39	32	0	37	40
LEINSTER	101	93	19	0	41	39
MUNSTER	84	84	8	0	38	45
CONNACHT-ULSTER	66	64	4	0	46	34

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (32 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

****************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (15th September 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	32%	37%	12%	4%	9%	6%
Muine Bheag	21%	34%	17%	5%	4%	18%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	37%	35%	1%	4%	19%	5%
Ballyjamesduff	29%	42%	1%	1%	24%	3%
Cavan-Belturbert	27%	35%	3%	1%	27%	7%
Ennis	24%	31%	1%	6%	3%	35%
Killaloe	36%	37%	10%	1%	2%	13%
Shannon	19%	33%	4%	1%	3%	40%
West Clare	47%	25%	1%	6%	2%	19%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	21%	42%	8%	5%	15%	9%
Bandon-Kinsale	24%	38%	12%	1%	18%	8%
Blarney-Macrooom	24%	35%	13%	4%	15%	9%
Cobh	13%	23%	8%	5%	22%	29%
East Cork	13%	23%	8%	5%	22%	29%
Fermoy	32%	33%	11%	1%	11%	11%
Kanturk-Mallow	20%	35%	10%	0%	14%	21%
West Cork	30%	37%	4%	3%	10%	15%
Donegal	25%	27%	3%	1%	15%	29%
Glenties	23%	12%	6%	1%	32%	26%
Inishowen	25%	26%	3%	4%	35%	7%
Letterkenny	36%	20%	3%	2%	18%	21%
Stranorlar	24%	20%	7%	1%	38%	9%
Balbriggan	10%	14%	21%	14%	9%	33%
Castleknock	18%	20%	11%	14%	8%	29%
Howth-Malahide	17%	20%	20%	12%	7%	24%
Mulhuddart	17%	15%	18%	1%	26%	23%
Swords	15%	20%	18%	5%	11%	31%
Clondalkin	15%	16%	13%	6%	36%	15%
Lucan	13%	31%	12%	8%	9%	27%
Tallaght Central	10%	14%	17%	2%	31%	26%
Tallaght South	11%	6%	14%	7%	53%	8%
Templeogue Terenure	18%	27%	15%	5%	11%	23%
Rathfarnham	24%	33%	15%	10%	11%	8%
Blackrock	18%	37%	17%	11%	2%	15%
Dun Laoghaire	11%	32%	12%	10%	3%	33%
Dundrum	17%	30%	14%	12%	9%	18%
Glencullen-Sandyford	20%	30%	24%	10%	14%	2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	11%	28%	25%	9%	9%	17%
Stillorgan	18%	31%	11%	10%	3%	28%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	22%	38%	14%	1%	5%	20%
Ballinasloe	21%	36%	1%	1%	27%	14%
Connemara	26%	21%	1%	2%	20%	30%
Loughrea	18%	34%	2%	3%	2%	41%
Tuam	26%	37%	10%	2%	4%	21%
Killarney	19%	15%	8%	1%	8%	50%
Listowel	22%	22%	12%	1%	42%	2%
South and West Kerry	34%	36%	4%	4%	3%	21%
Tralee	18%	15%	17%	2%	42%	7%
Athy	33%	33%	23%	1%	3%	7%
Celbridge	12%	18%	27%	9%	2%	31%
Maynooth (Clane)	27%	26%	10%	4%	4%	28%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	28%	26%	12%	4%	10%	21%
Naas	19%	28%	14%	14%	3%	21%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	39%	34%	6%	1%	10%	10%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	32%	29%	2%	1%	15%	20%
Portlaoise	21%	32%	3%	1%	31%	12%
Ballinamore	24%	29%	2%	2%	39%	3%
Carrick on Shannon	35%	21%	4%	3%	9%	29%
Manorhamilton	21%	34%	1%	2%	27%	15%
Ballymahon	26%	43%	2%	2%	6%	20%
Granard	42%	40%	1%	1%	4%	11%
Longford Town	28%	29%	2%	2%	6%	34%
Ardee	21%	24%	4%	8%	30%	12%
Drogheda	19%	23%	15%	6%	29%	8%
Dundalk Carlingford	18%	16%	2%	7%	44%	13%
Dundalk South	16%	15%	2%	15%	35%	16%
Ballina	30%	42%	3%	1%	13%	11%
Castlebar	25%	31%	3%	1%	16%	24%
Claremorris	29%	39%	1%	1%	14%	16%
West Mayo	25%	38%	2%	1%	22%	11%
Ashbourne	25%	23%	9%	3%	12%	29%
Ratoath	29%	25%	9%	1%	5%	32%
Kells	36%	30%	6%	0%	25%	2%
Navan	21%	20%	6%	3%	32%	18%
Laytown-Bettystown	19%	22%	11%	6%	14%	29%
Trim	28%	31%	9%	1%	12%	20%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	27%	22%	1%	4%	45%	2%
Ballybay-Clones	22%	23%	1%	4%	46%	4%
Monaghan	12%	13%	1%	4%	55%	15%
Edenderry	35%	18%	4%	1%	8%	34%
Tullamore	30%	24%	4%	1%	15%	26%
Birr	34%	28%	2%	1%	2%	34%
Boyle	26%	37%	1%	1%	12%	23%
Roscommon	22%	28%	1%	1%	9%	39%
Athlone (Roscommon)	32%	27%	1%	1%	8%	30%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	25%	33%	3%	1%	13%	26%
Sligo	23%	33%	8%	1%	24%	12%
Nenagh	28%	23%	8%	1%	11%	29%
Templemore-Thurles	32%	20%	8%	1%	2%	37%
Carrick on Suir	24%	38%	8%	1%	10%	18%
Clonmel	28%	29%	10%	4%	3%	26%
Cashel-Tipperary	27%	41%	7%	1%	3%	21%
Athlone	40%	35%	7%	1%	14%	4%
Mullingar-Coole	32%	26%	24%	3%	8%	7%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	35%	28%	22%	1%	6%	8%
Enniscorthy	26%	36%	9%	1%	12%	17%
Gorey	29%	32%	8%	1%	15%	14%
New Ross	33%	23%	5%	8%	27%	4%
Wexford	18%	25%	15%	5%	16%	22%
Arklow	34%	28%	20%	2%	6%	10%
Baltinglass	15%	26%	5%	3%	18%	34%
Bray	14%	15%	12%	9%	28%	23%
Greystones	13%	51%	12%	7%	8%	8%
Wicklow	23%	20%	18%	9%	28%	2%
Cork City North Central	17%	11%	13%	2%	18%	39%
Cork City North East	17%	21%	13%	8%	17%	24%
Cork City North West	15%	9%	9%	1%	41%	24%
Cork City South Central	18%	13%	17%	5%	24%	23%
Cork City South East	18%	31%	9%	5%	16%	20%
Cork City South West	21%	29%	14%	8%	27%	2%
Ballymun	20%	15%	25%	3%	28%	9%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	8%	10%	15%	3%	23%	41%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	14%	12%	18%	0%	47%	8%
Cabra-Finglas	22%	8%	13%	5%	38%	15%
Clontarf	20%	27%	12%	4%	9%	27%
Crumlin-Kimmage	11%	8%	21%	8%	23%	29%
North Inner City	7%	6%	15%	6%	31%	35%
Rathgar-Rathmines	17%	24%	25%	15%	6%	13%
Pembroke-South Dock	14%	21%	25%	9%	17%	15%
Galway City Central	27%	18%	24%	8%	5%	18%
Galway City East	21%	20%	16%	4%	11%	28%
Galway City West	14%	18%	6%	12%	4%	45%
Limerick City North	13%	25%	11%	5%	20%	26%
Limerick City East	24%	39%	11%	2%	5%	19%
Limerick City West	19%	41%	13%	2%	5%	20%
Adare-Rathkeale	31%	46%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Newcastle West	33%	51%	6%	1%	7%	2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	40%	34%	11%	2%	4%	9%
Dungarvan-Lismore	23%	39%	13%	1%	18%	6%
Comeragh	36%	46%	10%	1%	3%	5%
Tramore-Waterford City West	12%	25%	10%	2%	24%	27%
Waterford City South	12%	18%	9%	2%	21%	38%
Waterford City East	14%	26%	9%	4%	15%	32%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	4	4	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	3	1	0	0	2
Bailieborough-Cootehill	3	2	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ennis	2	3	0	0	0	3
Killaloe	2	3	0	0	0	1
Shannon	1	2	0	0	0	3
West Clare	4	2	0	0	0	2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	2	5	1	0	1	1
Bandon-Kinsale	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	2	2	1	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	0	0	2	2
East Cork	1	2	0	0	1	2
Fermoy	2	3	0	0	1	0
Kanturk-Mallow	1	3	0	0	1	1
West Cork	3	3	0	0	1	1
Donegal	1	2	0	0	1	2
Glenties	1	1	0	0	2	2
Inishowen	2	3	0	0	4	0
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	3	0
Balbriggan	1	1	2	1	0	3
Castleknock	1	2	1	1	0	2
Howth-Malahide	1	2	2	1	0	2
Mulhuddart	1	1	2	0	2	2
Swords	1	2	2	0	1	3
Clondalkin	1	1	1	0	4	1
Lucan	1	3	1	0	0	3
Tallaght Central	0	1	1	0	2	2
Tallaght South	1	0	1	0	4	0
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	0	2
Rathfarnham	2	3	1	0	0	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	3	1	0	0	3
Dundrum	1	2	1	1	0	2
Glencullen-Sandyford	1	2	2	1	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	1	2	1	0	0	2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	2	3	1	0	0	1
Ballinasloe	1	2	0	0	2	1
Connemara	2	2	0	0	2	3
Loughrea	1	3	0	0	0	4
Tuam	2	4	1	0	0	2
Killarney	2	1	0	0	0	5
Listowel	2	1	1	0	3	0
South and West Kerry	3	4	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	1	2	0	4	0
Athy	2	2	2	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	3	2	1	0	0	3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	3	2	1	0	1	2
Naas	2	3	1	1	0	2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	3	3	0	0	0	0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	1	2	0	0	3	1
Ballinamore	1	2	0	0	3	0
Carrick on Shannon	3	1	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	1	2	0	0	2	1
Ballymahon	2	4	0	0	0	0
Granard	3	3	0	0	0	0
Longford Town	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ardee	1	2	0	0	2	1
Drogheda	2	3	1	0	3	1
Dundalk Carlingford	1	1	0	0	3	1
Dundalk South	1	1	0	1	3	1
Ballina	2	4	0	0	1	1
Castlebar	2	3	0	0	1	2
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	1	1
Ashbourne	2	1	0	0	1	2
Ratoath	2	2	0	0	0	3
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	1	0	0	3	1
Laytown-Bettystown	1	2	1	0	1	2
Trim	2	2	0	0	1	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	1	2	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	0	1	0	0	4	1
Edenderry	3	1	0	0	0	2
Tullamore	2	2	0	0	1	2
Birr	2	2	0	0	0	2
Boyle	2	3	0	0	0	1
Roscommon	1	2	0	0	0	3
Athlone (Roscommon)	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	3	0	0	1	2
Sligo	2	4	1	0	2	1
Nenagh	3	2	0	0	1	3
Templemore-Thurles	3	2	0	0	0	4
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	3	3	1	0	0	2
Cashel-Tipperary	2	3	0	0	0	2
Athlone	3	3	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	3	2	2	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	3	2	1	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	3	3	0	0	1	1
Gorey	3	3	0	0	1	1
New Ross	4	2	0	0	2	0
Wexford	2	3	1	0	2	2
Arklow	3	2	1	0	0	0
Baltinglass	1	2	0	0	1	2
Bray	1	1	1	0	3	2
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	1	0	1	2
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	1	1	0	1	1
Cork City South East	1	3	0	0	1	2
Cork City South West	1	2	1	0	2	0
Ballymun	2	1	2	0	2	0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	2	3
Beaumont-Donaghmede	1	1	2	0	4	1
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	1	0	3	1
Clontarf	1	2	1	0	0	2
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	1	0	2	2
North Inner City	0	0	1	0	3	4
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	1	2	1	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	2	1	1	1
Galway City Central	2	1	2	0	0	1
Galway City East	2	1	1	0	1	1
Galway City West	1	1	0	1	0	3
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	1	2
Limerick City East	2	4	1	0	0	1
Limerick City West	1	3	1	0	0	2
Adare-Rathkeale	2	3	0	0	0	1
Newcastle West	2	4	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	3	3	1	0	0	0
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	4	1	0	1	0
Comeragh	3	3	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	1	2
Waterford City South	1	1	0	0	1	3
Waterford City East	1	2	0	0	1	2
Total	242	293	76	10	143	184
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	11%	-14%	-42%	233%	165%	35%

As with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail (although the level of Fianna Fail gains are not seem to be as dramatic in this study), as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But, as with the previous model, the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis. Indeed, in this analysis, Fine Gael are predicted to emerged as the party with the largest number of seats across all of the different local authority areas. 

	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	26	39	36	7	31	44
LEINSTER	91	94	21	2	39	45
MUNSTER	70	91	13	0	30	55
CONNACHT-ULSTER	55	69	6	1	43	40

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level). shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (32 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C (27th October 2013) poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	32%	40%	11%	2%	9%	6%
Muine Bheag	21%	37%	16%	3%	4%	20%
Bailieborough-Cootehill	36%	37%	1%	2%	18%	5%
Ballyjamesduff	28%	44%	1%	1%	23%	3%
Cavan-Belturbert	27%	36%	3%	0%	26%	7%
Ennis	24%	33%	1%	3%	3%	36%
Killaloe	35%	39%	9%	1%	2%	14%
Shannon	19%	34%	3%	1%	3%	41%
West Clare	47%	27%	1%	3%	2%	20%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	21%	45%	8%	3%	15%	9%
Bandon-Kinsale	24%	40%	11%	0%	17%	8%
Blarney-Macrooom	24%	38%	12%	2%	15%	10%
Cobh	13%	25%	8%	2%	22%	30%
East Cork	13%	25%	8%	2%	22%	30%
Fermoy	32%	35%	10%	0%	11%	11%
Kanturk-Mallow	20%	37%	9%	0%	14%	21%
West Cork	30%	39%	4%	2%	10%	16%
Donegal	25%	28%	2%	0%	14%	30%
Glenties	23%	13%	5%	0%	31%	27%
Inishowen	25%	28%	3%	2%	35%	7%
Letterkenny	35%	21%	2%	1%	18%	22%
Stranorlar	24%	21%	7%	0%	38%	10%
Balbriggan	10%	16%	20%	7%	10%	37%
Castleknock	19%	22%	11%	7%	9%	33%
Howth-Malahide	18%	23%	19%	6%	7%	27%
Mulhuddart	17%	16%	16%	0%	26%	24%
Swords	15%	22%	17%	3%	11%	33%
Clondalkin	15%	17%	12%	3%	37%	16%
Lucan	13%	34%	11%	4%	9%	29%
Tallaght Central	10%	15%	16%	1%	31%	28%
Tallaght South	11%	7%	13%	4%	56%	9%
Templeogue Terenure	18%	29%	14%	3%	11%	25%
Rathfarnham	25%	37%	14%	5%	11%	9%
Blackrock	18%	41%	16%	6%	2%	16%
Dun Laoghaire	11%	35%	11%	5%	3%	36%
Dundrum	18%	33%	13%	6%	9%	20%
Glencullen-Sandyford	21%	34%	23%	5%	15%	2%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	12%	31%	24%	5%	9%	19%
Stillorgan	18%	34%	10%	5%	3%	30%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	21%	40%	12%	1%	5%	21%
Ballinasloe	21%	38%	1%	0%	26%	14%
Connemara	25%	23%	1%	1%	20%	30%
Loughrea	17%	36%	2%	2%	2%	42%
Tuam	25%	40%	9%	1%	4%	21%
Killarney	18%	16%	7%	0%	7%	51%
Listowel	22%	23%	11%	0%	42%	2%
South and West Kerry	33%	38%	3%	2%	3%	22%
Tralee	18%	16%	15%	1%	42%	7%
Athy	33%	36%	21%	1%	3%	7%
Celbridge	13%	20%	25%	5%	3%	34%
Maynooth (Clane)	27%	28%	9%	2%	4%	29%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	28%	27%	11%	2%	10%	22%
Naas	20%	32%	14%	8%	4%	23%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	38%	36%	5%	0%	10%	11%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	31%	31%	2%	0%	14%	21%
Portlaoise	20%	34%	3%	0%	30%	12%
Ballinamore	24%	31%	1%	1%	39%	4%
Carrick on Shannon	34%	22%	3%	2%	8%	30%
Manorhamilton	21%	36%	1%	1%	26%	15%
Ballymahon	25%	45%	2%	1%	6%	20%
Granard	40%	42%	1%	1%	4%	12%
Longford Town	27%	30%	1%	1%	6%	35%
Ardee	21%	27%	4%	4%	31%	13%
Drogheda	19%	25%	14%	3%	29%	9%
Dundalk Carlingford	18%	17%	2%	3%	45%	14%
Dundalk South	18%	17%	2%	8%	38%	18%
Ballina	29%	43%	3%	0%	13%	12%
Castlebar	24%	32%	3%	0%	16%	25%
Claremorris	28%	41%	1%	0%	14%	17%
West Mayo	24%	40%	2%	0%	22%	12%
Ashbourne	25%	24%	8%	1%	12%	30%
Ratoath	28%	26%	8%	1%	5%	33%
Kells	36%	32%	5%	0%	25%	2%
Navan	21%	21%	5%	2%	32%	19%
Laytown-Bettystown	19%	23%	10%	3%	14%	31%
Trim	27%	32%	8%	1%	11%	21%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	27%	24%	1%	2%	45%	2%
Ballybay-Clones	22%	25%	1%	2%	46%	5%
Monaghan	12%	14%	1%	2%	55%	16%
Edenderry	34%	19%	4%	1%	7%	35%
Tullamore	29%	25%	3%	0%	15%	27%
Birr	33%	29%	1%	0%	2%	35%
Boyle	25%	39%	1%	0%	12%	23%
Roscommon	22%	29%	1%	0%	9%	39%
Athlone (Roscommon)	31%	29%	1%	1%	8%	31%
Ballymote-Tobercurry	24%	34%	2%	0%	13%	27%
Sligo	23%	35%	7%	0%	23%	12%
Nenagh	28%	24%	7%	0%	11%	30%
Templemore-Thurles	31%	21%	7%	0%	2%	38%
Carrick on Suir	23%	40%	7%	0%	10%	19%
Clonmel	28%	31%	9%	2%	3%	28%
Cashel-Tipperary	27%	43%	6%	0%	3%	21%
Athlone	39%	37%	6%	0%	14%	4%
Mullingar-Coole	32%	28%	22%	1%	8%	8%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	35%	30%	20%	1%	6%	9%
Enniscorthy	25%	37%	8%	0%	12%	17%
Gorey	29%	34%	7%	0%	15%	14%
New Ross	34%	25%	5%	4%	28%	5%
Wexford	18%	27%	14%	2%	16%	24%
Arklow	35%	30%	18%	1%	6%	10%
Baltinglass	15%	27%	4%	2%	18%	35%
Bray	15%	16%	11%	4%	29%	25%
Greystones	14%	55%	11%	4%	9%	9%
Wicklow	24%	23%	17%	5%	29%	2%
Cork City North Central	17%	12%	12%	1%	17%	41%
Cork City North East	17%	23%	12%	4%	18%	26%
Cork City North West	15%	10%	8%	1%	41%	26%
Cork City South Central	18%	14%	15%	3%	25%	25%
Cork City South East	18%	34%	8%	2%	16%	21%
Cork City South West	21%	32%	13%	4%	27%	3%
Ballymun	21%	16%	23%	2%	29%	10%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	8%	10%	14%	1%	23%	43%
Beaumont-Donaghmede	14%	13%	17%	0%	47%	9%
Cabra-Finglas	22%	9%	12%	2%	39%	16%
Clontarf	20%	29%	11%	2%	9%	28%
Crumlin-Kimmage	12%	9%	20%	4%	23%	32%
North Inner City	7%	6%	14%	3%	32%	38%
Rathgar-Rathmines	19%	28%	24%	8%	6%	15%
Pembroke-South Dock	15%	23%	23%	4%	18%	17%
Galway City Central	28%	20%	22%	4%	6%	20%
Galway City East	21%	22%	14%	2%	11%	29%
Galway City West	15%	19%	6%	6%	5%	49%
Limerick City North	13%	27%	10%	3%	20%	28%
Limerick City East	24%	41%	9%	1%	5%	19%
Limerick City West	19%	43%	11%	1%	5%	21%
Adare-Rathkeale	30%	48%	8%	0%	2%	11%
Newcastle West	32%	54%	5%	0%	7%	2%
Cappamore-Kilmallock	40%	36%	10%	1%	4%	9%
Dungarvan-Lismore	23%	41%	11%	0%	18%	6%
Comeragh	35%	48%	9%	1%	3%	5%
Tramore-Waterford City West	12%	26%	9%	1%	24%	28%
Waterford City South	11%	19%	8%	1%	20%	40%
Waterford City East	14%	27%	8%	2%	15%	34%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
Carlow Town	4	4	1	0	1	0
Muine Bheag	2	3	1	0	0	2
Bailieborough-Cootehill	2	3	0	0	1	0
Ballyjamesduff	2	3	0	0	1	0
Cavan-Belturbert	2	2	0	0	2	0
Ennis	2	3	0	0	0	3
Killaloe	2	3	0	0	0	1
Shannon	1	2	0	0	0	3
West Clare	4	2	0	0	0	2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline	2	5	1	0	1	1
Bandon-Kinsale	2	3	0	0	1	0
Blarney-Macrooom	2	2	1	0	1	0
Cobh	1	2	0	0	2	2
East Cork	1	2	0	0	1	2
Fermoy	2	3	0	0	1	0
Kanturk-Mallow	1	3	0	0	1	1
West Cork	3	3	0	0	1	1
Donegal	1	2	0	0	1	2
Glenties	1	1	0	0	2	2
Inishowen	2	3	0	0	4	0
Letterkenny	4	2	0	0	2	2
Stranorlar	2	1	0	0	3	0
Balbriggan	1	1	2	0	1	3
Castleknock	1	2	1	0	0	3
Howth-Malahide	2	2	2	0	0	2
Mulhuddart	2	1	1	0	2	2
Swords	1	2	2	0	1	3
Clondalkin	1	1	1	0	4	1
Lucan	1	3	1	0	0	3
Tallaght Central	0	1	1	0	2	2
Tallaght South	1	0	1	0	4	0
Templeogue Terenure	1	2	1	0	0	2
Rathfarnham	2	3	1	0	0	0
Blackrock	1	3	1	0	0	1
Dun Laoghaire	1	3	1	0	0	3
Dundrum	1	3	1	0	0	2
Glencullen-Sandyford	1	3	2	0	1	0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack)	1	2	2	0	0	1
Stillorgan	1	3	0	0	0	2
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore)	2	3	1	0	0	1
Ballinasloe	1	2	0	0	2	1
Connemara	2	2	0	0	2	3
Loughrea	1	3	0	0	0	4
Tuam	2	4	1	0	0	2
Killarney	2	1	0	0	0	5
Listowel	2	2	0	0	3	0
South and West Kerry	3	4	0	0	0	2
Tralee	2	2	1	0	4	0
Athy	2	3	1	0	0	0
Celbridge	1	1	2	0	0	3
Maynooth (Clane)	3	3	0	0	0	3
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare)	3	2	1	0	1	2
Naas	2	4	1	0	0	2
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick	3	3	0	0	0	0
Portarlington-Graiguecullen	2	2	0	0	1	1
Portlaoise	1	3	0	0	2	1
Ballinamore	1	2	0	0	3	0
Carrick on Shannon	3	1	0	0	0	2
Manorhamilton	1	2	0	0	2	1
Ballymahon	2	3	0	0	0	1
Granard	3	3	0	0	0	0
Longford Town	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ardee	1	2	0	0	2	1
Drogheda	2	3	1	0	3	1
Dundalk Carlingford	1	1	0	0	3	1
Dundalk South	1	1	0	0	4	1
Ballina	2	4	0	0	1	1
Castlebar	2	3	0	0	1	2
Claremorris	2	3	0	0	1	1
West Mayo	2	3	0	0	1	1
Ashbourne	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ratoath	2	2	0	0	0	3
Kells	3	2	0	0	2	0
Navan	2	1	0	0	3	1
Laytown-Bettystown	1	2	0	0	1	3
Trim	2	2	0	0	1	1
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross	2	1	0	0	3	0
Ballybay-Clones	1	2	0	0	3	0
Monaghan	0	1	0	0	4	1
Edenderry	2	1	0	0	0	3
Tullamore	2	2	0	0	1	2
Birr	2	2	0	0	0	2
Boyle	2	3	0	0	0	1
Roscommon	1	2	0	0	0	3
Athlone (Roscommon)	2	2	0	0	0	2
Ballymote-Tobercurry	2	3	0	0	1	2
Sligo	2	4	0	0	3	1
Nenagh	3	2	0	0	1	3
Templemore-Thurles	3	2	0	0	0	4
Carrick on Suir	2	3	0	0	0	1
Clonmel	3	3	0	0	0	3
Cashel-Tipperary	2	4	0	0	0	1
Athlone	3	3	0	0	1	0
Mullingar-Coole	3	2	2	0	0	0
Mullingar-Kilbeggan	3	2	1	0	0	0
Enniscorthy	2	4	0	0	1	1
Gorey	3	3	0	0	1	1
New Ross	3	2	0	0	3	0
Wexford	2	3	1	0	2	2
Arklow	3	2	1	0	0	0
Baltinglass	1	2	0	0	1	2
Bray	1	1	1	0	3	2
Greystones	1	4	1	0	0	0
Wicklow	2	1	1	0	2	0
Cork City North Central	1	0	0	0	1	3
Cork City North East	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cork City North West	1	0	0	0	2	1
Cork City South Central	1	1	1	0	1	1
Cork City South East	1	3	0	0	1	2
Cork City South West	1	2	1	0	2	0
Ballymun	2	1	2	0	2	0
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	0	0	1	0	2	3
Beaumont-Donaghmede	1	1	2	0	4	1
Cabra-Finglas	2	0	1	0	3	1
Clontarf	1	2	1	0	0	2
Crumlin-Kimmage	1	0	1	0	2	2
North Inner City	0	0	1	0	3	4
Rathgar-Rathmines	1	2	2	0	0	1
Pembroke-South Dock	1	2	2	0	2	1
Galway City Central	2	1	2	0	0	1
Galway City East	1	1	1	0	1	2
Galway City West	1	1	0	0	0	4
Limerick City North	1	2	0	0	1	2
Limerick City East	2	4	0	0	0	2
Limerick City West	1	4	1	0	0	1
Adare-Rathkeale	2	4	0	0	0	0
Newcastle West	2	4	0	0	0	0
Cappamore-Kilmallock	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dungarvan-Lismore	2	4	1	0	1	0
Comeragh	2	4	0	0	0	0
Tramore-Waterford City West	1	2	0	0	1	2
Waterford City South	1	1	0	0	1	3
Waterford City East	1	2	0	0	1	2
Total	238	310	64	0	146	191
2009 seat numbers	218	340	132	3	54	136
	9%	-9%	-52%	-100%	170%	40%

As with the previous such analysis, the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail (although the level of Fianna Fail gains are not seem to be as dramatic in this study), as well as the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael. But, as with the previous model, the extent of the losses by these parties would not be as significant as in the first such analysis. Indeed, in this analysis, Fine Gael are predicted to emerged as the party with the largest number of seats across all of the different local authority areas..

	FF	FG	LAB	GP	SF	OTH
DUBLIN	28	43	34	0	33	45
LEINSTER	87	100	18	0	39	49
MUNSTER	70	97	7	0	30	55
CONNACHT-ULSTER	53	70	5	0	44	42

The table above (which outlines an aggregation of all constituency seat estimates at the regional/provincial level) shows that the Labour losses are being offset by the increased number of seats awarded to the Dublin local authority areas, with the Dublin region accounting for over half (34 seats) of the seats being assigned to the party by this model. 

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