Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th July 2016

You wait months for an opinion poll to show significant changes in party/grouping support levels and then, like Dublin Bus, two of them come at once! The series of Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls carried out in the months following the February 26th election had not pointed to any major shifts in political support patterns during the new government’s “honeymoon period”. however last weekend’s Millward Brown poll had suggested that the three largest parties were making gains at the expense of the independents. Today’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll does not offer much in the way of good news for the Independents and Others grouping either (with the notable exception of the Green Party), but it definitely does offer very good news for Fianna Fail. At 33%, that party is seen to gain nine percentage points relative to its performance in February, but this also represents that party’s strongest performance in an Ipsos-MRBI poll since the economic crash in 2008, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Support trends by party/political grouping in Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI polls between 2006 and 2016 (Data drawn from: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll)

Fine Gael and Labour are both seen to lose ground here relative to those parties’ disappointing results at the general election, but Sinn Fein support is seen to be up by two percentage points relative to the February vote. The 7th Juli Irish Times- Ipsos MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 33% (up 9% relative to the 2016 General Election), Fine Gael 24% (down 2% relative to the 2016 General Election),  Independents and Others 22% (down 8% relative to the 2016 General Election) – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 2%, Green Party 4%, Independent Alliance 2%, Independents 4 Change 2%, Other Independents 9% – Sinn Fein 16% (up 2% relative to the 2016 General Election), Labour Party 5% (down 2% relative to the 2016 General Election). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 59, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 26, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Labour Party 2, Independents 18. (With improved candidate selection and vote management in a future election, Fianna Fail would probably win another c.4 seats, at least – and mainly at the expense of Fine Gael – on the support patterns conveyed in this opinion poll.) Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th July 2016

After a series of Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls showed little in the way of movement in terms of support levels for different parties and groupings, the first Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll since the February 26th election shows some notable shifts in political support levels. While support levels for some of the smaller parties and groupings – Labour, the Green Party and Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit – remain relatively similar to the levels of support at the 2016 General Election, the three largest parties – Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail – are all seen to gain support mainly at the expense of the Independents grouping. It will be interesting to see if the trends evident in this poll are just a one-off/outlier, or if these will be replicated in future opinion polls, thus suggesting a more long-term change in terms of political preferences. The 3rd July Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Independents and Others 17%  – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Green Party 3%, Independents 8% – Fine Gael 30%, Fianna Fail 26%, Sinn Fein 20%, Labour Party 7%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 60, Fianna Fail 47, Sinn Fein 29, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Labour Party 6, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Independents 5.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st July 2016

The April and May Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls had shown Fianna Fail edging ahead of Fine Gael, but Fine Gael regains the initiative in the latest in the latest in the series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls, albeit by the narrowest of margins. Trends in this opinion poll are relatively similar to those evidenced at the February 26th election, although Sinn Fein find themselves in a notably stronger position in this poll, whereas support levels for Labour, the Social Democrats and Renua fall below the levels won by these parties at the general election. The 26th June Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Independents and Others 27% (up 1%) – including Social Democrats 1%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua 1%, Green Party 3%, Workers Party 2%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 9% – Fine Gael 26% (NC), Fianna Fail 25% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (up 1%), Labour Party 5% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 51, Fianna Fail 45, Sinn Fein 27, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Labour Party 3, Social Democrats 2, Green Party 2, Independents 22.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 30th May 2016

The latest in the series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls did not point to any dramatic changes in support levels since the previous such poll and indeed since the February 2016 election. Fianna Fail are seen to draw level with Fine Gael in this latest poll, reflecting trends that were also evident in the most recent Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls. The Labour Party regains the ground that the party was seen to lose in the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll, but – other than that – the changes in support for the other parties and groupings tend to average out at gains/losses of around one percentage point.  The 30th May Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Independents and Others 27% – including Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Renua < 1%, Green Party 2%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 11% – Fianna Fail 26%, Fine Gael 26%, Sinn Fein 15%, Labour Party 6%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 48, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 26, Labour Party 4, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 7, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 1, Independents 18. 

Continue reading →