Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th October 2016

After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 (most notably the July Ipsos-MRBI poll) pointed to significant gains in support for Fianna Fail, pushing that party ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels. The general trend since then has been for Fianna Fail to maintain its position ahead of the other parties and groupings, including Fine Gael, at the head of subsequent opinion polls, although the party, on average, has lost some support relative to the high levels it attained in the July Ipsos-MRBI poll, while Sinn Fein – after a relatively disappointing general election – has made some notable gains in the most recent polls.  This July Ipsos-MRBI poll had marked a notable break from the earlier post-election polls that preceded it. The latest Ipsos-MRBI poll is not as dramatic; although it does show a seven percentage point drop in Fianna Fail support, this probably merely reflects the trend that has been observed across other opinion polls over the past four months. This poll is notable because it shows Fine Gael drawing level with Fianna Fail, but other recent polls did not show a particularly sizable gap between these parties, in any case.  This poll amounts to very good news for Sinn Fein, as that party now finds itself once again at the level of support it enjoyed in the two years before the February 2016 election.  This is not a good poll for Labour, however, with that party staying at 5%; going somewhat against the trend in recent polls which saw that party clawing back the ground lost in the post-election polls.

The 6th October Irish Times/Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26% (down 7% relative to the previous Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Social Democrats 2%, Green Party 3%, Renua <1%, Independents 15% – Fine Gael 26% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 3%), Labour Party 5% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows:  Fianna Fail 48, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 31, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3, Green Party 3, Labour Party 2, Social Democrats 2, Independents 22.  

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Adrian Kavanagh, 26th September 2016

After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 pointed to significant gains in support for Fianna Fail, pushing that party ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels. The latest in series of Red C opinion polls more or less reflects the trend that has been established across all polls from July onwards; showing Fianna Fail standing a few percentage points ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels.  This also reflects the trend evidenced in the recent Behaviour & Attitudes poll, in which the two largest parties were both seen to lose some ground to Sinn Fein, Labour and the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit. (This poll, however, sees the Social Democrats standing in notably stronger position than was the case with the Behaviour & Attitudes poll.) The 25th September Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27% (down 2% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Independents and Others 26% (NC) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 2%, Renua <1%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 10% – Fine Gael 25% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (up 2%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows:  Fianna Fail 52, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 23, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 8, Labour Party 7, Social Democrats 4, Independents 20.  

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Adrian Kavanagh, 21st September 2016

The 18th September Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll shows  Fianna Fail still holding the position of the most popular political party in the state,  standing some five percentage points ahead of Fine Gael. However, the two largest parties have lost some ground in this, the latest in the series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls, with Sinn Fein emerging as the main beneficiaries of this loss in support. Labour continues to regain the ground lost by the party in the opinion polls carried out in the weeks/months immediately following the February election. The 18th September Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 28% (down 2%), Independents and Others 24% (NC) – including Social Democrats 1%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua <1%, Green Party 2%, Workers Party 1%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 12% – Fine Gael 23% (down 2%),  Sinn Fein 18% (up 4%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows:  Fianna Fail 54, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 27, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5, Labour Party 7, Social Democrats 1, Green Party 0, Independents 21.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th July 2016 (Updated: 30th July 2016)

The July 7th  Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll had shown the most dramatic movement in political party support levels since the February 26th General Election, pointing to a notable increase in support for Fianna Fail, mainly at the expense of the Independents grouping. The Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls carried out between March and June had not shown any notable changes in support levels for political parties/groupings, but the most recent editions of these polls (both published on 17th July) now tend to mirror the trends observed in the Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, albeit not to as dramatic an extent. Contrasting with the Ipsos MRBI poll, these polls both point to a loss in support levels for Sinn Fein, bringing that party back to a level just below their February 26th General Election performance. There is no great movement in terms of support levels for Fine Gael and Labour, but these parties are not seen to be losing major ground in these polls either. The 17th July Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 29% (up 3% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Fine Gael 26% (NC), Independents and Others 26% (down 1% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll) – including Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Green Party 4%, Renua 1%, Independent Alliance 5%, Other Independents 7% – Sinn Fein 13% (down 2%), Labour Party 5% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 57, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 18, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 2, Labour Party 4, Independents 17.  The 17th July Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 30% (up 5% relative to the previous Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll), Fine Gael 25% (down 1%), Independents and Others 24% (down 3%) – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Green Party 2%, Renua 0%, Workers Party 3%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 8% – Sinn Fein 14% (down 3%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 58, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 21, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 7, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 1, Labour Party 3, Independents 18.  

A Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll, carried out roughly two weeks after these two polls, produced roughly similar support levels to these. The 29th July Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 28% (down 1% relative to the 17th July Red C opinion poll), Fine Gael 27% (up 1% relative to the 17th July Red C opinion poll), Independents and Others 26% (NC) – including Social Democrats 3%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Green Party 3%, Renua <1%, Independent Alliance 5%, Other Independents 10% – Sinn Fein 15% (up 2%), Labour Party 5% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 54, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 24, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Labour Party 0, Independents 20.  

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Adrian Kavanagh, 7th July 2016

You wait months for an opinion poll to show significant changes in party/grouping support levels and then, like Dublin Bus, two of them come at once! The series of Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls carried out in the months following the February 26th election had not pointed to any major shifts in political support patterns during the new government’s “honeymoon period”. however last weekend’s Millward Brown poll had suggested that the three largest parties were making gains at the expense of the independents. Today’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll does not offer much in the way of good news for the Independents and Others grouping either (with the notable exception of the Green Party), but it definitely does offer very good news for Fianna Fail. At 33%, that party is seen to gain nine percentage points relative to its performance in February, but this also represents that party’s strongest performance in an Ipsos-MRBI poll since the economic crash in 2008, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Support trends by party/political grouping in Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI polls between 2006 and 2016 (Data drawn from: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll)

Fine Gael and Labour are both seen to lose ground here relative to those parties’ disappointing results at the general election, but Sinn Fein support is seen to be up by two percentage points relative to the February vote. The 7th Juli Irish Times- Ipsos MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 33% (up 9% relative to the 2016 General Election), Fine Gael 24% (down 2% relative to the 2016 General Election),  Independents and Others 22% (down 8% relative to the 2016 General Election) – including Social Democrats 2%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 2%, Green Party 4%, Independent Alliance 2%, Independents 4 Change 2%, Other Independents 9% – Sinn Fein 16% (up 2% relative to the 2016 General Election), Labour Party 5% (down 2% relative to the 2016 General Election). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 59, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 26, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Labour Party 2, Independents 18. (With improved candidate selection and vote management in a future election, Fianna Fail would probably win another c.4 seats, at least – and mainly at the expense of Fine Gael – on the support patterns conveyed in this opinion poll.) Continue reading →