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Author Archives: Adrian Kavanagh
The Geography of the 2016 USA Presidential Election: Analysing the Republican Party vote
Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-10th January 2017 This article will offer a geographical perspective on the election results at the 2016 USA Presidential election. I have purposely held off on writing this article for the past few weeks, as election results still … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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Festive joy for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael: Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll (8th December 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 8th December 2016 After a series of polls in the Autumn/early Winter had pointed to a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail relative to that party’s high support levels in polls during the Summer, this morning’s Ipsos-MRBI poll … Continue reading
Back to the Feb-ture?: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (27th November 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 28th November 2016 The November 2016 Red C opinion polls shows little in the way of changes in support levels since the previous Red C poll in October. The main change here sees Sinn Fein gaining a further three percentage points in terms of their … Continue reading
The 2016 US Presidential Election: Disproportionality, Bias and the Electoral College
Adrian Kavanagh, 18th November 2016 – latest update: 8th February 2017 As the dust settles following the conclusion of the 2016 USA Presidential Election campaign, there are two striking patterns, or trends, which point towards the high degree of disproportionality … Continue reading
Posted in US elections, Voter turnout
Tagged 2016, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, United States of America
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AAA-PBP SBB ina Shuí?: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (30th October 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st November 2016 The latest in series of Red C opinion polls shows little change in support levels for the two largest parties in the wake of the recent Budget, with Fianna Fail support levels dropping by one percentage point, while … Continue reading
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Heading towards a three-party, not a two-and-a-half party, system?: Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll (6th October 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 6th October 2016 After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 (most notably the July Ipsos-MRBI poll) pointed to significant gains … Continue reading
As You Were More Or Less…: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (25th September 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 26th September 2016 After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 pointed to significant gains in support for Fianna Fail, pushing … Continue reading
Larger parties lose some ground to Sinn Fein: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (18th September 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 21st September 2016 The 18th September Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll shows Fianna Fail still holding the position of the most popular political party in the state, standing some five percentage points ahead of Fine Gael. However, the two … Continue reading
Fianna Fail surge confirmed: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls (18th July 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 18th July 2016 (Updated: 30th July 2016) The July 7th Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll had shown the most dramatic movement in political party support levels since the February 26th General Election, pointing to a notable increase in support for Fianna Fail, … Continue reading
Census 2016 Preliminary Population Figures – What these mean for 2016/17 Constituency Commission review
Adrian Kavanagh, 14th July 2016 The preliminary population by area Census 2016 figures were published earlier today (at 11 am), showing a population level within the state of 4,757,976, marking a notable increase (of 169,724) on the 4,588,252 population level … Continue reading
Posted in Constituency Commission, Election boundaries
Tagged 2016, boundaries, Census, Constituency Commission
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