Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th February 2016

Figure 1: Dail seat estimate trends across poll analyses between August 2015 and February (23rd) 2016

As we get closer to polling day, yesterday saw the latest – and last – in the series of pre-election Red C opinion polls, with this one being a Paddy Power-Red C poll. There are some interesting contrasts with the figures produced by the other polling companies over the past few days. The government parties are seen to fare better in this Red C poll, although Labour support drops by one percentage point. By contrast, Fianna Fail support levels have tended to be higher in the other opinion polls, although this latest Red C poll does point to a two percentage point gain for that party. There are some notable similarities. The swings in this polls do replicate those in the previous day’s Irish Time-Ipsos MRBI poll. The trend of a late swing away from Sinn Fein, as evidenced in the other polls, is also evident here, although the loss of one percentage point is of course well within the margin of error.  The trend of strong support for the Independents and Others grouping, evidenced across the opinion polls carried out across the general election campaign, is yet again obvious here. Instead of fading somewhat as the electorate became more focused on the formation of the next government coming close to Election Day, support levels for this grouping have actually hardened as the campaign has progressed. Yesterday’s Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 21st Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (NC), Independents and Others 28% (NC) – including Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Renua 2%, Green Party 3%, Independent Alliance 2%, Other Independents 14% – Fianna Fail 20% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 57, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 39.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd February 2016

Figure 1: Dail seat estimate trends across poll analyses between August 2015 and February (22nd) 2016

After three opinion polls in yesterday’s newspapers, we today see the last Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll of the current general election campaign. The trends in this poll are quite similar to that of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll. This sees no gains for Fine Gael, going against the trends observed in the other polls – although the time period between Ipsos-MRBI polls is decidedly more frequent than the Red C polls. The Labour support estimate in this poll sits between the extremes of the Behaviour & Attitudes and the Red C poll support estimates, as seen in yesterday’s poll. As with the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, this poll represents the strongest figures of the weekend for Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein do not fare as well as in the Millward Brown poll, however, and the trend of declining Sinn Fein support across the weekend’s polls is also evidenced here. Once again, we see the trend of strong support for the Independents and Others grouping evidenced across the opinion polls carried out across the general election campaign. Instead of fading somewhat as the electorate became more focused on the formation of the next government coming close to Election Day, support levels for this grouping have actually hardened as the campaign has progressed.  Today’s Irish-Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 4th Irish-Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 28% (NC), Independents and Others 28% (up 3%) – including Social Democrats 3%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Renua 2%, Green Party 2%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 11% – Fianna Fail 23% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 4%), Labour Party 6% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 54, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th February 2016

A night of opinion polls brings no real consensus as to the shape of the government that will/might emerge after Friday’s general election. The third of this weekend’s polls – the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll – sees no gains for Fine Gael, going against the trends observed in the other polls. The Labour support estimate in this poll sits between the extremes of the Behaviour & Attitudes and the Red C poll support estimates. This poll represents the strongest figures of the weekend for both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, although the trend of declining Sinn Fein support across the weekend’s polls. But the trend of strong support for the Independents and Others grouping is perhaps the most striking element of this poll – and indeed most of the opinion polls carried out across the general election campaign. Instead of fading somewhat as the electorate became more focused on the formation of the next government coming close to Election Day, support levels for this grouping have actually hardened as the campaign has progressed.  This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 7th Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 27% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 4%) – including Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Renua 2%, Green Party 2% – Fianna Fail 23% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 31, Labour Party 5, Independents and Others 34.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th February 2016

Hot on the heels of a Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, which brought some good news for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others but some bad news for Sinn Fein and awful news for Labour, comes the latest in the series of Red C polls. There are some similarities here with the Behaviour & Attitudes trends, but also some notable differences, especially with regards to the Labour numbers. There is good news for Fine Gael, in which the downwards trend in Red C poll numbers over the past few weeks, is seen to be somewhat reversed in this particular opinion poll (or significantly reversed if contrasted with the recent Irish Sun-Red C poll). Similarly, as with the Behaviour & Attitudes poll, this a bad poll for Sinn Fein, with that party losing four percentage points in tein this latest poll. But there are notable gains here for the Independents and Others grouping, which has generally enjoyed strong poll numbers since the official campaign began. There is no change here for Fianna Fail and Labour, which represents good news somewhat for Labour when placed in the context of the Behaviour & Attitudes numbers. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 14th Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 2%), Independents and Others 28% (up 2%) – including Independents 11%, Independent Alliance 3%, Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Renua 2%, Green Party 4% – Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 16% (down 4%), Labour Party 8% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 60, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th February 2016

The last Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll of the February 2016 general election campaign again brings some very mixed messages for the two government parties. There is good news for Fine Gael, in which the downwards trend in the poll numbers over the first few weeks of the campaign is seen to be somewhat reversed in this particular opinion poll. But there is bad news – very bad news – for the Labour Party, with that party slipping down four percentage points to its lowest support level in an opinion poll in the lifetime of this government – and probably for a very considerable period of time. (This figure seems to be out of line with trends for Labour support in most recent polls, including this week’s Red C poll, but there is no doubt that this would be a disastrous result for the party should it transpire in the actual election.) This is a bad poll for Sinn Fein, representing one of the lowest support levels for that party in an opinion poll over the past few years, and the party will be concerned that this trend is also replicated in this weekend’s Red C poll. But there are notable gains here for Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping. This weekend’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 7th Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 2%), Independents and Others 27% (NC) – including Independent Alliance 5%, Social Democrats 3%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Renua 3%, Workers Party 1% and Other Independents 10% – Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 2%), Labour Party 4% (down 4%), Green Party 3% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 59, Sinn Fein 21, Labour Party 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th February 2016

The February 7th Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll had brought some good news for Fine Gael and Labour in the face of less positive news from the other polls published around that same time. But since that poll, a Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll, published a few days later, and Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll, published a week later, saw some slippage in the government support trends. This latest Red C poll continues in that same vein somewhat, with a further loss in support for Fine Gael although Labour claw back some ground here. There are mixed messages for the different Opposition groupings and parties in this poll. There is bad news for Sinn Fein, with that party losing the three percentage points that it had gained in this weekend’s  Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll. By contrast, there is a one percentage point gain for Fianna Fail in this poll, with a three percentage point gain for the Independent and Others grouping. This poll represents the highest combined level of support for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein in a Red C poll since June 2015. This latest poll leaves the government parties on a combined level of support that is probably some six to seven percentage points short of the level of support that they would need to attain in order to return to power in March. This latest Irish Sun-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the February 14th 2016 Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Independents and Others 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 9% (up 1%), Green Party 4% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 13, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 38. 

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