Elections to 25th Seanad (2016): Lists of Nominated Candidates and Analysis of Trends

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd December 2015

Elsewhere on this site, I have compiled a list of the selected/declared candidates for the 2016 Dail elections, but this post lists the nominated candidates for the 2016 Seanad elections. (The earlier version of this post listed people who had declared an interest in contesting these elections; some of whom subsequently did not get nominations to contest the elections. The number of declared candidates for the different panels – especially the Administrative, Agriculture, Cultural and Educational, Industrial and Commercial, and Labour panels – remained at relatively low levels until the Dail elections had taken place. Ahead of the close of nominations, details on nominated candidates candidates were difficult to find, but this post did try to list as many of these as possible.) Voting for these elections will take place across late March and early April.

172 candidates are listed here. 46 (26.7%) of these are female and 126 (73.3%) of these are male. Of the candidates listed here at present, 31 (18.0%) are outgoing Senators, 57 (33.1%are City/County Councillors and 21 (12.2%) are former TDs, including some who lost their seats at the February 2016 election but also former TDs who lost their seats at earlier general elections (or did not chose not to contest a general election, as in the case of Niall Blaney). A number of the former TDs grouping are currently City/County Councillors or Senators.

There are notable variations across the different Seanad panels/constituencies in terms of the level of female candidates contesting these, as evident in the statistics noted directly below.

  • Administrative: 35.3% female, 64.7% male
  • Agricultural: 20.8% female, 79.2% male
  • Cultural and Educational: 36.0% female, 64.0% male
  • Industrial and Commercial: 24.3% female, 75.7% male
  • Labour: 17.4% female, 82.6% male
  • National University of Ireland: 23.3% female, 76.7% male
  • Trinity: 37.5% female, 62.5% male

In relation to the vocational panel contests, there tends to be a higher level of female candidates on the “Inside” sub-panels, as will be discussed later.

46 Fianna Fail, 43 Fine Gael, 7 Sinn Fein, 5 Labour Party and 71 Independents and Others candidates (including one Social Democrats, one Green Party and one Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit candidate) and  will be contesting these elections and these are listed below. (Sinn Fein has also nominated Ciaran Staunton as an independent candidate on the Industrial and Commercial panel.)

The list of candidates contesting the five vocational panel elections – Adminstrative, Agricultural, Cultural and Educational, Industrial and Commercial, Labour – are divided into two sub-panels – an Outside sub-panel and an Inside sub-panel. Candidates on the Outside sub-panels have been nominated by an official external nominating body – e.g. Conradh na Gaeilge and the National Youth Council of Ireland for the Cultural and Educational panel.  Candidates on the Inside sub-panels have been nominated by their own political parties and/or a number (minimum of four) of Oireachtas members. Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Seanad election | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2015: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2015

During the past year (2015), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty one different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved fourteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, five Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and eight Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls. Averaging the different Dail seat-level estimates for the different political parties and political groupings across these thirty four different polls produces the following estimate: Fianna Fail 32.9, Fine Gael 52.7, Labour Party 5.7, Sinn Fein 29.3, Independents and Others 37.5. But notably different seat-estimates were produced depending on the time of year that these polls were held in, with this also depending on what polling companies were involved in the carrying out of these different polls, as will be illustrated in this discussion. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Days get shorter as do odds of Government returning to power: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (20th December 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th December 2015 

Registering their highest combined support levels in an opinion poll since the Millward Brown poll of 25th January 2014, the latest Red C opinion offers Festive tidings for Fine Gael and Labour, with both registering an increase in support levels. This marks a notable increase on where the combined support levels for these parties stood in opinion polls at this time last year, as shown in the diagram below:

PollTrends2015picFGLAB

This poll marks some bad news for Fianna Fail, who see a two percentage point drop in their support levels (leaving them back at the 2011 General Election support levels), as well as the Independents and Others grouping, but Sinn Fein support levels increase by one percentage point. This latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 32% (up 1%), Independents and Others 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 17%% (down 2%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 64, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 10, Independents and Others 29.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Tidings of Joy for the Government Parties?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes opinion poll (13th December 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th December 2015 

The last Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll of 2015 brings some very good news for the government parties, while reflecting the trends observed in the latest Ipsos-MRBI, Red C and Millward Brown opinion polls. This poll represents the highest combined support level for the two government parties (39%) in a national opinion poll for a long time (since February 2014), with a five percentage point increase in support levels for Fine Gael and a one percentage point increase in the Labour support levels being recorded. (Although, the Fine Gael support level in the last such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes in November had been notably lower than the levels observed across the other opinion polls.)  There are losses however for all of the main Opposition parties and groupings. This weekend’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 31% (up 5%), Independents and Others 24% (down 2%) – including Green Party 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Fianna Fail 19% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 4%), Labour Party 8% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 64, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 7, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 24.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 1 Comment

Labour gains and Fine Gael pains : Constituency-level analysis of the Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll (3rd December 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd December 2015 

The latest Red C opinion poll once again brings mixed messages for the government parties, but this time the good news is for the Labour Party and not Fine Gael. After seeming marooned on the 7% support level over the five previous opinion polls, Labour gain two percentage points in this poll (representing that party’s best showing in an opinion poll since 12th September 2015), but – after some significant gains over recent months – Fine Gael support levels drop by three percentage points. Fianna Fail enjoy an one percentage point improvement in their support levels, while there is no movement in the Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping support levels. This latest Paddy Power-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 28% (down 3%), Independents and Others 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 54, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 37.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 1 Comment

Further gains for Fine Gael and Sinn Fein: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th November 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th November 2015 

Today sees the publication of the fourth Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll in 2015 and the trends in this poll – given that the Ipsos MRBI polls appear less regularly than other polls – offer a useful synthesis of the trends that have been evident in recent editions of the other polls. The parties making gains in this poll, as in most other recent polls, are again Fine Gael and Sinn Fein, largely reflecting the trend observed in the opinion polls leading up to the 2011 General Election. There is a two percentage point increase in support levels for Fine Gael, giving the party its highest support level in an Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll since the December 2013 edition of this poll. However, there is a one percentage point drop in support levels for Labour, leaving the party at the 7% support level that it has stood at with most recent polls. Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping both lose support in this latest Ipsos MRBI poll, but Sinn Fein gain two percentage points, with the party’s loss of support across the Summer and  Early Autumn polls now effectively being reversed. Today’s Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 12%), Independents and Others 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 19% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 61, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 3, Independents and Others 30Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Fine Gael gains further ground: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (22nd November 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2015 

The latest Red C opinion poll yet again brings mixed messages for the government parties, with a one percentage point increase in support levels for Fine Gael (giving the party one of its highest poll ratings in recent years), but with Labour remaining at the 7% support level that it has stood at with most recent polls. Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping both lose support in this latest Red C poll, but Sinn Fein gain two percentage points. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 31% (up 1%), Independents and Others 25% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 19% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (up 2%), Labour Party 7% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 68, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 35.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Gains for Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes opinion poll (15th November 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th November 2015 

The first Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll brings more mixed messages for the government parties, while reflecting somewhat the latest Red C and Millward Brown opinion polls, with a two percentage point increase in support levels for Fine Gael but with a one percentage point drop in the Labour support levels. Both of the main Opposition parties, Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, are seen to gain, mainly at the expense of the Independents and Others grouping. This weekend’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 26% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 53, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 37.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 2 Comments

Resurgence for the Civil War parties: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll (7th November 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th November 2015 

The first Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll for a number of months brings very mixed messages for the government parties, while reflecting the latest Red C opinion poll, with a five percentage point increase in support levels for Fine Gael, while Labour sypporr reversing the trend evident for that party in September’s poll. This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 5%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Independents and Others 19% (down 5%), Labour Party 7% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 40, Fine Gael 60, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 25.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

Clocks go back as Fine Gael and Fianna Fail go forward: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (13th September 2015)

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th October 2015 

The latest Red C opinion poll brings mixed messages for the government parties, with a two percentage point increase in support levels for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, but with a three percentage point support loss for Labour, reversing the trend evident for that party in September’s poll. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 2%), Independents and Others 27% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 16% (NC), Labour Party 7% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 63, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading

Posted in opinion polls | Tagged | 2 Comments