Clocks go back as Fine Gael and Fianna Fail go forward: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (13th September 2015)

Posted on October 24, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th October 2015 

The latest Red C opinion poll brings mixed messages for the government parties, with a two percentage point increase in support levels for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, but with a three percentage point support loss for Labour, reversing the trend evident for that party in September’s poll. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 2%), Independents and Others 27% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 16% (NC), Labour Party 7% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 63, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading →

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Independents and Others still to the fore: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (18th October 2015)

Posted on October 17, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th October 2015 

Going somewhat against the grain of the latest Red C and Ipsos MRBI, the latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll sees a three percentage point drop in support levels for Fine Gael, although coalition partners, Labour, enjoy a two percentage point increase in their support levels. The trends in this poll are virtually the opposite of those evident in the last Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll in August, in which Fine Gael wee seen to gain some notable ground in that poll while Labour lost two percentage points in terms of their estimated support levels. The big winners in the poll are obviously the Independent and Others grouping, whose combined support levels leave them as the best supported political grouping in the state. The breakdown of these numbers is especially positive for the new Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, whose combined support levels are estimated to stand at 7% in this latest poll. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Independents and Others 29% (up 1%), Fine Gael 24% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 19% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Labour Party 8% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 46.

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November election looking less likely?: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (24th September 2015)

Posted on September 24, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th September 2015 

Today sees the third in the series of Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion polls for 2015, with this being the first such poll held for a number of months – since the May 18th poll (held before the Marriage Equality referendum). The first Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll of 2015, back in March, reflected the trend of improving fortunes for the government parties, which was evident in opinion polls in the first part of the year. In May poll, Fine Gael gained a further three percentage points, but there was no movement in the Labour figures. This poll, by and large, is quite similar to the government support trends evident in the May 2015 poll, although Labour does gain one percentage point. However, it could be argued that the time lapse between the two latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls does cover a period of government support slippage in the earlier part of Summer 2015 and then recovery in the latter part of the Summer/early Autumn, as evident in the latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. While the overall trend across 2015 is positive for these parties, their combined support levels are still off the level required to be able to form a government at the next election – whether as a minority government supported by one or two other groupings or as a government with a Dail majority (albeit very much reduced!). Hence, the likelihood of an early election appears a bit more remote than it might have seemed after the recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll.

There is no movement in this poll for Fianna Fail, although the Independents and Other grouping gains one percentage point, while Sinn Fein support levels fall by two percentage points. Combined with the May figures, this points to a loss of five percentage points in terms of Sinn Fein support since the March 2015 poll. This Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 28% (NC), Independents and Others 25% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 20% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (down 2%), Labour Party 8% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 36.  Continue reading →

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Government Red-y to Return?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (13th September 2015)

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th September 2015 

The last Red C opinion poll in late July had brought mixed messages for the government parties, but the message from this latest poll for Fine Gael and Labour is undeniably positive. Fine Gael has regained the ground that they lost to Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others in the July poll, while Labour also make a gain two percentage points in this poll. The government gains are at the expense of Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others, while Fianna Fail support levels remain static at around the 18% level. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 28% (up 3%), Independents and Others 28% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 16% (down 2%), Labour Party 10% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 14, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading →

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Summer Labour brings no profit: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (16th August 2015)

Posted on August 15, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th August 2015 

Tomorrow sees another poll in the monthly series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls. There are mixed messages for the government parties in this opinion poll. After a series of poor results in the July opinion polls, Fine Gael are seen to gain some notable ground in this poll, but Labour lose two percentage points in terms of their estimated support levels/ The notable trend here marks a reversal of the patterns evident in last month’s Behaviour & Attitudes poll, with the Independents and Others grouping losing ground in this poll to Fine Gael and the two largest Opposition parties. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 4%) (Green Party 2% (up 1%), Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 42 (including Green Party 1). 

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Dail constituency support estimates: Combining 2014 Local Election results and Opinion Poll-generated support estimates

Posted on August 7, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th August 2015

As you may know, I try to regularly carry out what I term a constituency-level analysis of opinion poll figures, as and when these are released, to try and decipher what these might mean in terms of potential Dail seat levels for the different political parties and groupings. In order to do so, I calculate constituency support estimates for the different parties and groupings, in which the extent of the support changes since the 2011 General Election suggested by a specific opinion poll are applied to all Dail constituencies. There is a logic in this, given that the geography of support associated with different political parties tends to be relatively similar at different election contests. In other words, political parties will tend to usually do especially well in certain regions and less well in others. For instance, Fine Gael support tends to be strongest in rural areas and middle class urban areas, but relatively weak in the more working class areas. At the level of individual constituencies, however, levels of support change can vary noticeably for various reasons (which will be discussed later) and as such – as noted in the poll analyses posts – these Dail constituency support estimates should not be viewed as accurate predictions of party support levels in individual constituencies. Continue reading →

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Autumnal Blues for Fine Gael?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls (2nd August 2015)

Posted on August 1, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st August 2015 

Sunday sees the publication of a new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll. Following a series of improving fortunes in opinion polls for the party in the first half of 2015, Fine Gael lose some significant grouping in this poll – reflecting a trend that has been evident in a number of more recent polls too. This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Independents and Others 25% (up 4%), Fine Gael 24% (down 5%), Fianna Fail 23% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 37.  Continue reading →

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Swings and Roundabouts: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls (26th July 2015)

Posted on July 25, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th July 2015 

Last month’s Red C opinion poll saw gains for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at the expense of Labour and Sinn Fein, but these two parties lose ground in this month’s poll to the Independent and Others grouping, with this grouping making significant gains in a Red C poll for the second month in a row. Indeed, the Independents and Others grouping have gained nine percentage points since the May Red C opinion poll. Labour regain some ground in this month’s poll, with their support levels increasing by one percentage point. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 31% (up 4%), Fine Gael 25% (down 3%),  Fianna Fail 18% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 18% (NC),Labour Party 8% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 51.  Continue reading →

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Independents and Others surge anew: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll (19th July 2015)

Posted on July 18, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th July 2015 

Tomorrow sees the latest in monthly series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls. The notable trend here sees some notable gains for the Independents and Others grouping, mainly at the expense of the expense of the two largest Opposition parties. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Independents and Others 32% (up 4%), Fine Gael 24% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 30, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 51.  Continue reading →

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Good weekend for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C and Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls (28th June 2015)

Posted on June 29, 2015 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th June 2015 

Yesterday (Sunday) saw the publication of two new opinion polls; including the latest in monthly series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls, while a new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll was also published. Following a good opinion poll for the party last week, Fianna Fail also gained some ground in these two opinion polls. Fine Gael support levels remain at a notably higher level than the low point reached by the party in the December 2014 opinion polls, while Fine Gael also gained some ground in the Millward Brown poll. The Independent and Others grouping make significant gains in the Red C poll, mainly at the expense of Sinn Fein and Labour. The Independents and Others grouping did lose some support, however, in the Millward Brown poll, with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both gaining at the expense of Sinn Fein and Labour losses in this instance. Indeed, this was the first opinion poll since the Millward Brown poll of 20th April 2014 in which the combined Fine Gael and Fianna Fail support levels exceeded the 50% level. This weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 28% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 5%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (down 3%),Labour Party 7% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 3, Independents and Others 40. This weekend’s Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 23% (up 4%), Independents and Others 21% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 3%),Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 57, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 30.  Continue reading →

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