Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th May 2015 

Only a day after the latest Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll comes the second in the series of Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion polls for 2015. The first such poll, back in March, continued the trend of improving fortunes for the government parties, evident in polls in the first part of the year. In this poll, Fine Gael gain a further three percentage points, but there is no movement in the Labour figures. Indeeed, Fine Gael have gained nine percentage points since the final opinion poll of 2015, while the Independents and Others grouping has lost eight percentage points over the same time period. After a series of disappointing polls, Fianna Fail gain some ground in this opinion poll and indeed this is a very good poll for the two traditional “Civil War” parties, especially as support levels are seen to decline for the Independents and Other grouping and for Sinn Fein. This Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 28% (up 4%), Independents and Others 24% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 3%), Labour Party 7% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 32.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th May 2015 

We’ve been waiting – not a long time – since the last opinion poll and a new Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll emerges, as we head into Eurovision week and the final week of the Carlow-Kilkenny and referendum campaigns. In this poll, combined support levels for the government parties remains in the mid-30s, roughly the same level of support that has been enjoyed by these parties in most recent polls. Fianna Fail poll levels still remain to gain anything in the way of traction, although a win in Carlow-Kilkenny next weekend could have that party a boost. Support levels for Sinn Fein (1%) and the Independents and Others grouping (2%) improve somewhat. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitutdes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitutdes poll): Fine Gael 27% (NC), Independents and Others 26% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%),  Labour Party 8% (down 1%), Green Party 3% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 30, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 38, Green Party 1.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th April 2015 

Tomorrow sees the latest in monthly series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls. This seems, to a certain degree to reverse the trends evident in the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. Both of the two government parties lose ground in this poll, while Sinn Féin more than regains the ground that party lost in the March edition of this poll. This Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 26% (down 2%), Fine Gael 25% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 5%), Labour Party 8% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 31, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 37.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th April 2015 

Easter Sunday brings the latest in the series of Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls. There is something for everyone in this Easter egg basket. Although the level of increase is perhaps not as dramatic as in other recent polls, the government parties (or rather Labour) are seen to make some further ground in this poll. Although they drop two percentage points since the previous Millward Brown poll, Sinn Fein are still on a decidedly higher level of support in this poll than they were in last week’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. Support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat, while Fianna Fail support levels are at a (slightly) higher level than they were in some other recent polls. This Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (down 2%), Independents and Others 20% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 19% (NC), Labour Party 8% (up 2%), Green Party 3% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 6, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2015 

Following Thursday’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll comes the latest in the series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls. In this poll, Fine Gael and Labour yet again are seen to make further gains, with the combined support levels now commanded by these parties at the highest level in months and with Labour now reaching the crucial 10% support level. By contrast, there is a drop of four percentage points in Sinn Fein support levels since the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. This Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 2%), Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 17% (down 4%), Labour Party 10% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 11, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th March 2015 

Nearly two weeks after the last series of Red C, Millward Brown and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls, the first Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll of 2015 continues the trend of improving fortunes for the government parties, although the combined level of support being commanded by Fine Gael and Labour is some percentage points lower than that recorded by these parties in the Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes polls. This new poll offers more good news for Sinn Fein while support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat. Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll and other recent polls, especially as this Ipsos MRBI poll points to a notable drop in support levels for that party since the last such poll in late 2014. This Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Independents and Others 28% (down 4%), Fine Gael 24% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th March 2015 

Just like misery, opinion polls seem to like company. Hot on the heels of the latest Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll comes the latest in the series of Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls which offers further good news for the government parties. In this poll, both Fine Gael and Labour have gained an extra seven percentage points since the last Behaviour & Attitudes poll; a bigger gain that that seen with yesterday’s Red C poll, but of course the gap between Behaviour & Attitudes polls has been longer than that for the Red C polls. Support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat, as does support levels for Sinn Fein, though Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll, and most of the recent polls. This Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 27% (up 3%), Independents and Others 27% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 8, Independents and Others 40.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th March 2015 

It may well be Friday 13th, but the latest Paddy Power-Red C opinion poll has brought some good news for the government parties. On the same day that the new Renua Ireland party was launched, both Fine Gael and Labour have gained an extra two percentage points since the last Red C poll. Support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat, as does support levels for Sinn Fein, though Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll, and most of the recent polls. This Paddy Power -Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 22nd February 2015): Fine Gael 26% (up 2%), Independents and Others 25% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 21% (NC), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%), Green Party 2% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 30, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38.  Continue reading →