Back to the Future? The Green (Party) shoots of recovery

Posted on May 27, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th May 2014

Figure 1: Support level (%) for the Green Party at local authority level in the 2014 Local Elections

Figure 1: Support level (%) for the Green Party at local authority level in the 2014 Local Elections

Much of the focus of the Counts Weekend was on the very strong showings by Sinn Féin, the left-of-centre smaller political groupings/parties and the independents, as well as the significant number of seat gains made by Fianna Fáil. But this was also a very good weekend for the Green Party, even though Eamonn Ryan just fell short in his attempt to win a European Parliament seat in Dublin. Continue reading →

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General Election results simulated on the basis of 2014 Local Election vote patterns

Posted on May 27, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th May 2014

What would the results of the next general election look like if people voted exactly the same way as they did in Friday’s local elections? Continue reading →

Posted in Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

The 2014 Local Elections and Female Support/Representation levels

Posted on May 27, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th May 2014 (with subsequent updates) 

While May 23rd 2014 was not exactly Lá de na Mná, this year’s local elections did mark an improvement on the low levels of female candidacies and representation associated with previous local election contests. There were 127 more female candidates contesting the 2014 elections than contested the City and County Council elections in 2009. Female candidates won a total of 346,914 first preference votes in these elections – 20.4% of the total number of votes cast at the local elections. Female candidates’ share of the national vote increased from 17.0% to 20.3% between these two contests. The number of successful female local election candidates stood at 196 (20.4% of the total number of successful candidates), marking a notable increase on the number of females who were elected at the 2009 (147) and 2004 (151) elections. Continue reading →

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Trends observed during the elections counts (May 24th-25th 2014)

Posted on May 24, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th-25th May 2014 (being updated during the day) My thoughts/observations as the election counts progress during the weekend – I’ll be updating these regularly. Continue reading →

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2014 Local Election seat estimates based on a constituency-level analysis of RTE Exit Polll

Posted on May 24, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24 May 2014

This post attempts to ascertain what the different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might for the City and County Council elections on the basis of the RTE Exit Poll support figures, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political Forum website, which attempts to predict Dáil seat numbers on the basis of such poll figures.

The RTE Exit Poll (24th May 2014) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 16%, Labour 7%, Green Party 3%, Independents and Others 28%.

My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 234, Fine Gael 251, Sinn Fein 121, Labour 39, Green Party 13, Independents and Others 291.  Continue reading →

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Today’s elections: Why voter turnout matters

Posted on May 21, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st May 2014 – updated 23rd May 2014

This year, local and European elections are taking place on Friday 23rd May (TODAY!!!), while voters in Dublin West and Longford-Westmeath also get to vote in a Dáil by-election. The results of these contests will be determined by many factors – some of these being local, some being national and some even having a European focus – but voter turnout levels on the day will also have a major bearing. Continue reading →

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Does size matter? The largest/smallest (re: area) local and European election constituencies

Posted on May 19, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2014

NB: If you are using information from the page/website for publications/talks/interviews etc, make sure to highlight this site as the source of your information please. Believe me, a lot of my work/time has been put into working on this material/these posts, so do not pass off my work as your own!!! 

The creation of new constituencies for the upcoming local and European elections (on May 23rd 2014) has resulted in the creation of some very large constituencies (in terms of territory/geographical area). In many cases, larger constituency units have come about as a result of a loss of seats – whether it be the loss of a European Parliament seat by the Republic of Ireland or the loss of County Council seats by some (of the more rural) counties – added to the overall increase in seat numbers for City and County Council elections. Not surprisingly, the very largest constituency areas tend to be associated with electoral areas in the more rural and western parts of the state, in addition to the two, more rural, European election constituencies. These new, larger, constituencies pose major challenges to politicians/candidates in terms of their campaigning strategies but also in terms of how they serve these very large areas should they prove to be successful come polling day. Continue reading →

Posted in Constituency information, Election boundaries, European Elections, Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Geographical perspectives on the Longford-Westmeath constituency

Posted on May 19, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2014

When it comes to elections, Geography matters! But geography especially tends to have a bearing in the case of two-county general election constituencies such as the old Laois-Offaly constituency and the Longford-Westmeath constituency. With this in mind, this post will offer a geographical perspective on the Longford-Westmeath constituency, ahead of this week’s by-election in that constituency. Continue reading →

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Local Elections 2014 page links for City and County Council websites

Posted on April 28, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th April 2014

This short post aims to list all the official Local Elections 2014 pages across the webpages of the different City and County Councils. As well as listing details on aspects of the elections process (including Notice of Poll details, as well as polling schemes and electoral area maps in some cases), these pages may also be used (in some cases) to report election count details as the counts progress on the weekend of 24-25 May 2014. I would also assume (although everyone know what “assume did to you and me”) that official candidate nomination details will be published on, or linked from, these pages after the official close of nominations at 12pm on May 3rd 2014. If not, I will try to compensate by offering links from local media sources in those counties, if these exist. Continue reading →

Posted in Candidates, Constituency information, local elections, Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , | 8 Comments

Confirmed candidates for the Longford-Westmeath and Dublin West by-elections

Posted on April 24, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th April 2014

With these contests taking place on the same day as the Local and European elections of May 23rd, this post lists the names of the candidates who will be contesting the Longford-Westmeath and Dublin West by-elections on this page, following the official close of nominations at 12.00pm on May 10th. Continue reading →

Posted in by-election, Candidates, Gender | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments