2014 Local Election seat estimates based on a constituency-level analysis of RTE Exit Polll

Adrian Kavanagh, 24 May 2014

This post attempts to ascertain what the different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might for the City and County Council elections on the basis of the RTE Exit Poll support figures, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political Forum website, which attempts to predict Dáil seat numbers on the basis of such poll figures.

The RTE Exit Poll (24th May 2014) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 16%, Labour 7%, Green Party 3%, Independents and Others 28%.

My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated at next year’s City and County Council elections, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 234, Fine Gael 251, Sinn Fein 121, Labour 39, Green Party 13, Independents and Others 291. 

NOTE: This model, it must be stressed, is not aiming to glean 100% accurate predictions as to party support/seat levels in the different local election electoral areas (or even at the City/County level). (The analysis may offer some pointers as to what party’s potential support levels would be in these constituencies.) The sole purpose of these constituency-level estimates is for these to be used as a means of estimating what overall party/grouping seat levels would be at the national level if opinion poll support levels were replicated at the actual elections. With this in mind, keep the following health warnings in mind:

Some Major Health Warnings: It is worth noting that people tend to be more focused on voting for candidates in local elections than they are in general elections and this emphasis on candidate-voting, as opposed to voting for political parties, will impact on local election support levels for the different parties also. For instance, the presence of an exceptionally popular local candidate on a party ticket will push up support levels for that party up above the expected levels that would be predicted in this model. The importance of candidate voting may also affect the base levels (2009) of support for different parties in certain constituencies, with a knock on effect on the predicted party support levels in those constituencies.  For instance if strong candidates who polled well in 2009 have subsequently been elected/co-opted to Dail Eireann, Seanad Eireann or the European Parliament (and a later post has shown that a significant number of poll toppers at these local elections went on to achieve success at the general elections of 2011, while some others have now retired), they will not have been able to contest the local elections in 2014. Hence, the party support level (2009 base level) may be potentially lower than the figures used in this model, meaning that the constituency support estimates are hence over-estimated. By contrast, the inclusion of a strong candidate, who did not contest the 2009 elections, on a ticket may push up that party’s support level to a higher level than might be expected. This can be seen in the case of the 2004 local elections where a number of strong Fine Gael performances arose because constituencies were being contested by former (and in most cases, future) party TDs who had lost their seats at the 2002 General Election. By contrast, due to the abolition of the dual mandate ahead of those elections, Fianna Fail TDs were not allowed to contest these elections and the drop in party support/seat levels at these elections could be in part attributed to this factor.

In a similar vein, defections from different political parties will have an impact on those parties’ base levels of support in the local election constituencies/electoral areas concerned. For instance, Labour hopes of retaining their seats in Wicklow, for instance, will have been undermined – over and above what is being suggested in this model – by the decision of some of their Councillors to resign from the party and join the independent ranks,  as also evidenced in the resignations of a number of Councillors from Fianna Fail in the lead up to General Election 2011 (involving electoral areas such as Athlone (Westmeath), Killarney (Kerry) and Edenderry (Offaly)) and of a number of Fine Gael Councillors in Roscommon County. However, for this model I have tried to account for these by amending the 2009 base figures to take account of these more high profile defections.

Given the volume of boundary changes involving local election constituencies, the 2009 base estimates of party support are not as accurate as I would like these to be, given that party support levels have had to be approximated in cases where a lack of tally data has militated against more accurate measures being calculated. I have tried to take account of defections from the different parties to the independent ranks in a number of cases.

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Rationale behind the model: The analysis used here is similar to posts on The Irish Politics Forum which have applied this constituency level analysis to estimate potential general election seat numbers from different opinion poll figures, based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in previous elections) – something that will not be possible with this particular analysis. This analysis attempts to estimate what party seat levels would be across the different City and County Councils in the state, should such national support trends in opinion polls be replicated at next year’s local elections.

What is the big idea lying behind this research? The proportion of seats won by parties in Irish general, European and local elections does not tend to measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference vote (although the system is decidedly more proportional than its UK counterpart), mainly because party’s first preference votes need to be filtered through the system of Irish electoral constituencies. In order to address this question, I attempt to estimate what party first preference votes would be in different constituencies, assuming similar (proportional) change in party vote shares in all constituencies. How does this work? Well, for instance, Labour’s share of the vote is estimated in this poll to now stand at just five-ninths of the level of support that the party won at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael’s vote share would stand at four-fifths the party’s level of support won in these elections, Fianna Fáil’s vote share would stand at eight-sevenths the party’s level of support won in these elections while Sinn Féin support levels are estimated to be two and three-fifths the vote share that the party won at the 2009 City and County Council elections. So for any electoral area, for instance, the Labour support levels would be estimated at five-ninths of the percentage support levels achieved by the party in 2009 in that (local election) constituency and the Fine Gael support level would be estimated at four-fifths the 2009 percentage Fine Gael support levels.

This of course is a very rough model (and it an even rougher one when applied to local election constituencies), and can’t account for the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, even within specific provinces or regions. An attempt has been made to take account of the impact that boundary changes/territory transfers, brought in by the Local Electoral Area Boundary Committee Report 2013, would have on vote share, as well as the changing numbers of seats associated with the different local election constituencies/local electoral areas. Given the lack of tallies for the 2009 local electoral contests, the calculation of the base, 2009 support level, figures for the different constituency units is not as accurate as one would wish. This is not an issue for those counties/local authority areas where little or no change has occurred in relation to local election boundaries (such as Cork City and Fingal) or where new local election constituency units are largely drawn up on the basis of an amalgamation of the pre-existing units (as in the case of Carlow). But where significant territory transfers have taken place, the calculation of the base (2009) support level figures for the new constituency units involves a degree of guesstimating and the individual constituency-level predictions are less reliable in these cases. Based on these estimated figures, I proceed to estimate the destination of seats in the different constituencies in each of the different region/provinces and then to aggregate these to complete the national estimates.

This analysis is based on the assumption of universal swings to/from parties along a similar line to the national trends suggested in the poll figures. But, in addition to the other provisos not earlier in this post, it is also worth noting that there are areas that can defy such national trends. A good example of such an area would be Westmeath, where support trends in some recent general and local elections have gone against the over-riding trend associated with those contests, as evidenced in the increased support for Labour’s Willie Penrose in the 1997 General Election and the increased support for Fine Gael’s Paul McGrath in the 2002 General Election, as well as the strong performance by Fianna Fail in Westmeath at the most recent (2009) local election contest.

Due to unusually high/low support levels for some parties or political groupings in the previous election, the model may throw up occasional constituency predictions that are unlikely to pan out in a “real election”, but the estimates here cannot be seen as highly accurate estimates of support levels at the constituency level as in a “real election” party support changes will vary significantly across constituency given uneven geographical shifts in support levels. For instance, while Sinn Fein won just over seven percent of the national vote at the 2009 local elections, there were a number of electoral areas in which the party polled exceptionally well (such as those in Monaghan County, the Listowel and Tralee electoral areas in Kerry and a number of the more working class electoral areas in Dublin). If the level of swing to Sinn Fein suggested by polls in 2012 and 2013 is applied to these cases, this would make for exceptionally high constituency support predictions and seat estimates for the party in these cases. This scenario may well not pan out in the actual election (indeed the party might not run as many candidates as the seats being assigned to it in some of these stronger electoral areas) – the party vote may not be as high as the model is suggesting, with this being offset by stronger Sinn Fein performances in electoral areas in which the party did not do as well in (or did not contest) at the 2009 Local Elections.

There is also a problem associated with areas that were not contested by some of the smaller parties, such as Labour, Sinn Fein and the Green Party, in the 2009 contest. By default, the model will produce a 0% support estimate for such areas, if the baseline 2009 support is estimated at 0%. To (partly) correct this, I have been allocating 2009 party support estimates for these different parties in these “missing” electoral areas, with this estimate being calculated from the smallest level of support won by those parties/groupings in similar sized constituency areas (i.e. areas with same number of seats) in the 2009 contest. In a similar vein, a 0% base figure has been allocated to party support base figures for those constituencies that they are not contesting in these elections (e.g. Ballinasloe for Labour, Naas for the Green Party, Ballyjamesduff for Independents/Others).

The ultimate aim of the models are to get an overall, national-level, estimate of seat numbers for the different parties and groupings. This model is based on the proviso that an over-prediction of support levels/seat numbers in a number of local election constituencies will be offset by under-prediction in other constituencies. The idea here is that cases of areas/counties where too many seats/much support is being assigned to a party will be offset by other areas/counties where not enough seats/much support is being assigned to that party.

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The constituency support estimates based on the RTE Exit Poll figures, when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
Carlow Town 35% 37% 11% 0% 9% 9%
Muine Bheag 22% 33% 14% 0% 4% 27%
Bailieborough-Cootehill 39% 35% 0% 0% 20% 7%
Ballyjamesduff 31% 43% 0% 0% 26% 0%
Cavan-Belturbert 28% 33% 3% 0% 27% 10%
Ennis 21% 25% 1% 7% 2% 44%
Killaloe 37% 35% 8% 0% 0% 20%
Shannon 17% 27% 3% 0% 2% 51%
West Clare 43% 22% 0% 7% 2% 26%
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 21% 38% 7% 7% 15% 13%
Bandon-Kinsale 25% 35% 10% 1% 18% 11%
Blarney-Macrooom 25% 34% 11% 0% 15% 14%
Cobh 13% 21% 7% 0% 21% 40%
East Cork 13% 21% 7% 0% 21% 40%
Fermoy 33% 31% 9% 0% 11% 16%
Kanturk-Mallow 19% 31% 7% 0% 13% 29%
West Cork 29% 33% 3% 4% 10% 21%
Donegal 24% 23% 0% 0% 14% 40%
Glenties 21% 10% 4% 0% 29% 35%
Inishowen 26% 25% 3% 0% 36% 10%
Letterkenny 34% 18% 2% 0% 17% 29%
Stranorlar 25% 18% 6% 0% 38% 14%
Balbriggan 9% 11% 15% 15% 8% 42%
Castleknock 16% 16% 8% 15% 7% 38%
Howth-Malahide 15% 16% 10% 12% 6% 41%
Mulhuddart 16% 14% 14% 0% 25% 32%
Swords 13% 17% 13% 6% 10% 40%
Clondalkin 16% 16% 11% 0% 27% 31%
Lucan 13% 29% 10% 0% 9% 40%
Tallaght Central 9% 13% 13% 0% 29% 36%
Tallaght South 12% 6% 12% 0% 57% 13%
Templeogue Terenure 16% 22% 7% 6% 10% 40%
Rathfarnham 24% 31% 12% 12% 10% 12%
Blackrock 17% 33% 13% 14% 2% 21%
Dun Laoghaire 9% 26% 8% 11% 3% 43%
Dundrum 16% 26% 11% 14% 8% 25%
Glencullen-Sandyford 21% 29% 20% 13% 15% 3%
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 11% 25% 20% 11% 9% 25%
Stillorgan 16% 26% 8% 11% 3% 36%
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 21% 34% 11% 0% 5% 29%
Ballinasloe 21% 33% 1% 0% 26% 20%
Connemara 23% 18% 1% 0% 18% 39%
Loughrea 16% 28% 1% 0% 2% 53%
Tuam 27% 37% 0% 0% 4% 32%
Killarney 16% 12% 6% 0% 6% 61%
Listowel 23% 21% 10% 0% 44% 3%
South and West Kerry 34% 33% 0% 0% 3% 30%
Tralee 19% 14% 14% 0% 43% 10%
Athy 35% 32% 19% 0% 3% 11%
Celbridge 11% 15% 19% 11% 2% 41%
Maynooth (Clane) 26% 23% 8% 0% 4% 39%
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 27% 23% 10% 0% 10% 29%
Naas 21% 29% 13% 0% 4% 33%
Castlecomer 22% 37% 14% 0% 9% 18%
Kilkenny City-East 29% 26% 6% 9% 6% 24%
Kilkenny City-West 22% 25% 12% 12% 9% 19%
Piltown 28% 44% 10% 0% 10% 8%
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 33% 30% 5% 0% 10% 22%
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 27% 25% 2% 0% 14% 32%
Portlaoise 20% 30% 3% 0% 30% 17%
Ballinamore 26% 28% 0% 0% 41% 5%
Carrick on Shannon 33% 19% 0% 0% 8% 40%
Manorhamilton 21% 31% 0% 0% 26% 22%
Ballymahon 26% 39% 0% 0% 6% 29%
Granard 42% 38% 0% 0% 4% 17%
Longford Town 25% 24% 0% 0% 6% 45%
Ardee 22% 24% 4% 0% 32% 19%
Drogheda 19% 21% 12% 8% 28% 12%
Dundalk Carlingford 17% 14% 0% 8% 42% 19%
Dundalk South 15% 13% 0% 18% 33% 22%
Ballina 29% 32% 0% 0% 13% 26%
Castlebar 23% 27% 2% 0% 15% 33%
Claremorris 28% 35% 0% 1% 14% 23%
West Mayo 25% 35% 0% 1% 22% 17%
Ashbourne 23% 20% 7% 0% 11% 39%
Ratoath 17% 20% 6% 1% 4% 52%
Kells 37% 29% 5% 0% 26% 3%
Navan 21% 18% 5% 0% 31% 26%
Laytown-Bettystown 18% 19% 9% 0% 13% 40%
Trim 27% 27% 7% 0% 11% 28%
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 29% 22% 1% 0% 48% 0%
Ballybay-Clones 22% 21% 0% 5% 45% 6%
Monaghan 11% 11% 0% 5% 51% 21%
Edenderry 19% 14% 3% 0% 6% 58%
Tullamore 27% 21% 3% 1% 14% 34%
Birr 31% 23% 0% 0% 2% 45%
Boyle 25% 33% 1% 0% 11% 31%
Roscommon 19% 19% 0% 0% 8% 54%
Athlone (Roscommon) 28% 18% 0% 0% 7% 46%
Ballymote-Tobercurry 23% 29% 0% 0% 12% 36%
Sligo 22% 29% 4% 0% 22% 23%
Nenagh 26% 20% 6% 0% 10% 38%
Templemore-Thurles 28% 16% 6% 0% 2% 48%
Carrick on Suir 23% 34% 7% 0% 10% 26%
Clonmel 26% 25% 6% 0% 2% 41%
Cashel-Tipperary 26% 37% 5% 0% 3% 29%
Athlone 31% 32% 5% 0% 13% 19%
Mullingar-Coole 34% 26% 21% 0% 8% 11%
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 37% 27% 18% 0% 6% 12%
Enniscorthy 25% 32% 7% 0% 12% 24%
Gorey 29% 30% 6% 0% 15% 20%
New Ross 36% 23% 4% 0% 29% 7%
Wexford 17% 21% 12% 5% 15% 30%
Arklow 30% 23% 6% 0% 5% 36%
Baltinglass 14% 23% 0% 0% 17% 46%
Bray 13% 12% 7% 10% 25% 34%
Greystones 12% 43% 3% 8% 8% 26%
Wicklow 22% 18% 9% 11% 26% 15%
Cork City North Central 15% 9% 9% 0% 15% 51%
Cork City North East 15% 18% 9% 9% 16% 33%
Cork City North West 14% 8% 7% 0% 38% 33%
Cork City South Central 17% 11% 12% 6% 22% 32%
Cork City South East 17% 27% 7% 6% 15% 28%
Cork City South West 21% 27% 11% 10% 27% 4%
Ballymun 20% 14% 20% 4% 28% 13%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 7% 8% 11% 3% 20% 52%
Beaumont-Donaghmede 15% 12% 12% 1% 48% 13%
Cabra-Finglas 21% 7% 10% 6% 36% 21%
Clontarf 18% 23% 9% 5% 9% 36%
Crumlin-Kimmage 10% 7% 16% 9% 20% 38%
North Inner City 6% 5% 11% 7% 16% 55%
Rathgar-Rathmines 16% 18% 19% 17% 6% 24%
Pembroke-South Dock 14% 19% 19% 10% 16% 21%
Galway City Central 26% 16% 18% 10% 5% 25%
Galway City East 20% 18% 12% 0% 11% 39%
Galway City West 13% 15% 5% 0% 4% 63%
Limerick City North 13% 22% 7% 0% 19% 40%
Limerick City East 23% 35% 6% 0% 5% 31%
Limerick City West 19% 37% 10% 0% 5% 29%
Adare-Rathkeale 34% 46% 0% 0% 2% 18%
Newcastle West 34% 50% 5% 0% 8% 3%
Cappamore-Kilmallock 46% 35% 0% 0% 5% 14%
Dungarvan-Lismore 24% 37% 11% 0% 19% 9%
Comeragh 38% 44% 8% 0% 3% 7%
Tramore-Waterford City West 12% 22% 8% 0% 22% 37%
Waterford City South 10% 15% 7% 0% 18% 49%
Waterford City East 14% 22% 6% 0% 14% 44%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Electoral Area FF FG LAB GP SF OTH
Carlow Town 4 4 1 0 1 0
Muine Bheag 2 3 1 0 0 2
Bailieborough-Cootehill 3 2 0 0 1 0
Ballyjamesduff 2 3 0 0 1 0
Cavan-Belturbert 2 2 0 0 2 0
Ennis 2 2 0 0 0 4
Killaloe 3 2 0 0 0 1
Shannon 1 2 0 0 0 3
West Clare 4 2 0 0 0 2
Ballincollig-Carrigaline 2 5 0 0 2 1
Bandon-Kinsale 2 3 0 0 1 0
Blarney-Macrooom 2 2 0 0 1 1
Cobh 1 1 0 0 2 3
East Cork 1 1 0 0 1 3
Fermoy 2 2 0 0 1 1
Kanturk-Mallow 1 2 0 0 1 2
West Cork 2 3 0 0 1 2
Donegal 1 1 0 0 1 3
Glenties 1 0 0 0 2 3
Inishowen 3 2 0 0 3 1
Letterkenny 4 2 0 0 2 2
Stranorlar 2 1 0 0 2 1
Balbriggan 1 1 1 1 0 4
Castleknock 1 1 0 1 0 4
Howth-Malahide 1 1 1 1 0 4
Mulhuddart 1 1 1 0 2 3
Swords 1 2 1 0 1 4
Clondalkin 1 1 1 0 2 3
Lucan 1 2 1 0 0 4
Tallaght Central 0 1 1 0 2 2
Tallaght South 1 1 1 0 2 1
Templeogue Terenure 1 2 0 0 0 3
Rathfarnham 2 2 0 1 0 1
Blackrock 1 2 1 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 1 0 4
Dundrum 1 2 1 1 0 2
Glencullen-Sandyford 2 2 1 1 1 0
Killiney-Shankill (Ballybrack) 1 2 1 0 0 2
Stillorgan 1 2 0 0 0 3
Athenry-Oranmore (Oranmore) 2 3 0 0 0 2
Ballinasloe 1 3 0 0 1 1
Connemara 2 1 0 0 2 4
Loughrea 1 2 0 0 0 5
Tuam 2 4 0 0 0 3
Killarney 1 1 0 0 0 6
Listowel 2 2 1 0 2 0
South and West Kerry 3 3 0 0 0 3
Tralee 2 2 2 0 2 1
Athy 3 2 1 0 0 0
Celbridge 1 1 1 1 0 3
Maynooth (Clane) 3 2 0 0 0 4
Kildare-Newbridge (Kildare) 3 2 0 0 1 3
Naas 2 3 1 0 0 3
Castlecomer 2 2 1 0 0 1
Kilkenny City-East 2 2 0 0 0 2
Kilkenny City-West 1 2 1 1 0 1
Piltown 2 4 0 0 0 0
Borris in Ossory-Mountmellick 3 2 0 0 0 1
Portarlington-Graiguecullen 2 1 0 0 1 2
Portlaoise 2 2 0 0 2 1
Ballinamore 1 2 0 0 3 0
Carrick on Shannon 2 1 0 0 0 3
Manorhamilton 1 2 0 0 1 2
Ballymahon 1 3 0 0 0 2
Granard 2 3 0 0 0 1
Longford Town 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ardee 1 2 0 0 2 1
Drogheda 2 2 1 1 3 1
Dundalk Carlingford 1 1 0 0 3 1
Dundalk South 1 1 0 1 3 1
Ballina 2 3 0 0 1 2
Castlebar 2 2 0 0 1 3
Claremorris 2 3 0 0 1 1
West Mayo 2 3 0 0 1 1
Ashbourne 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ratoath 2 2 0 0 0 3
Kells 3 2 0 0 2 0
Navan 2 1 0 0 2 2
Laytown-Bettystown 1 1 0 0 1 4
Trim 2 2 0 0 0 2
Castleblaney-Carrickmacross 2 1 0 0 3 0
Ballybay-Clones 2 2 0 0 2 0
Monaghan 1 1 0 0 3 1
Edenderry 1 1 0 0 0 4
Tullamore 2 1 0 0 1 3
Birr 2 1 0 0 0 3
Boyle 1 2 0 0 1 2
Roscommon 1 1 0 0 0 4
Athlone (Roscommon) 2 1 0 0 0 3
Ballymote-Tobercurry 2 2 0 0 1 3
Sligo 2 3 0 0 2 3
Nenagh 2 2 0 0 1 4
Templemore-Thurles 3 2 0 0 0 4
Carrick on Suir 2 2 0 0 0 2
Clonmel 3 2 0 0 0 4
Cashel-Tipperary 2 3 0 0 0 2
Athlone 2 3 0 0 1 1
Mullingar-Coole 3 2 1 0 0 1
Mullingar-Kilbeggan 2 2 1 0 0 1
Enniscorthy 2 3 0 0 1 2
Gorey 2 3 0 0 1 2
New Ross 4 2 0 0 1 1
Wexford 2 2 1 0 2 3
Arklow 2 1 0 0 0 3
Baltinglass 1 1 0 0 1 3
Bray 2 1 0 0 2 3
Greystones 1 3 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 2 1 0 0 2 1
Cork City North Central 1 0 0 0 1 3
Cork City North East 0 1 0 0 1 2
Cork City North West 0 0 0 0 2 2
Cork City South Central 1 0 1 0 1 2
Cork City South East 1 2 0 0 1 3
Cork City South West 2 2 1 0 1 0
Ballymun 2 1 1 0 2 1
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh 0 1 0 0 1 4
Beaumont-Donaghmede 2 1 1 0 3 2
Cabra-Finglas 2 0 0 0 3 2
Clontarf 1 2 0 0 0 3
Crumlin-Kimmage 1 0 1 0 1 3
North Inner City 0 0 1 0 2 5
Rathgar-Rathmines 1 1 1 1 0 2
Pembroke-South Dock 1 2 2 0 1 2
Galway City Central 2 1 1 0 0 2
Galway City East 1 1 1 0 0 3
Galway City West 1 1 0 0 0 4
Limerick City North 1 1 0 0 1 3
Limerick City East 2 3 0 0 0 3
Limerick City West 1 3 1 0 0 2
Adare-Rathkeale 2 3 0 0 0 1
Newcastle West 2 4 0 0 0 0
Cappamore-Kilmallock 3 3 0 0 0 1
Dungarvan-Lismore 2 3 1 0 2 0
Comeragh 3 3 0 0 0 0
Tramore-Waterford City West 1 1 0 0 1 3
Waterford City South 1 1 0 0 1 3
Waterford City East 1 1 0 0 1 3
Total 234 251 39 13 121 291

If we compare these seat estimates to the number of seats won in City and County Council elections in 2009 (and taking account of the fact that there will an extra 66 seats relative to the 2009 number, although Town and Borough Councils are being abolished), we see that the big winners would be predicted to be Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping, while the most significant losses would be experienced by Labour and Fine Gael.

2014 estimate 234 251 39 13 121 291
2009 seat numbers 218 340 132 3 54 136
Change 7% -26% -70% 333% 124% 114%
Region FF FG LAB GP  SF OTH
DUBLIN 28 35 19 9 23 69
LEINSTER 84 81 11 4 33 80
MUNSTER 67 77 7 0 28 80
CONNACHT-ULSTER 55 58 2 0 37 62

On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fail’s number of City/County Council seats would increase by 7%, Sinn Fein’s number would increase by 124% and the number of Independent and Other seats by 114%, while the number of Labour seats would fall by 70% and Fine Gael seats would fall by 26%.

The very large number of Independent/Other candidates contesting these local elections may mean that their huge support levels nationally does not translate very well into seat numbers and there is a strong likelihood that the Independent and Other seat numbers may be significantly over-estimated here. If this is the case, the seat numbers for the other political parties may be higher than that what the model is estimating. 

 

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About Adrian Kavanagh

Lecturer in Maynooth University Department of Geography.
This entry was posted in Election boundaries, Local Elections 2014, opinion polls and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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