Adrian Kavanagh, 26th August 2014

The Central Statistics Office release its last issue in its annual estimation of population/migration figures within the state on 26th August, with the publication of Population and Migration Estimates April 2014. This latest publication estimates that the state population stood at 4,609,600 in April 2014.For the 24th consecutive year since 1990, it estimates that population levels increased again over the past year, although the level of increase is notably lower than the high levels of increase associated with the Late Celtic Tiger period (2005-2008). The estimated emigration level (81,900) was seen to exceed the estimated immigration level (60,600) for the fifth year in a row, although the gap between these figures was notably lower than for the three previous years.

Third level graduates accounted for 51.0% of all emigrants in the 2014 migration estimates as against a 38.9% level for that same group in the 2009 estimates. In a somewhat related vein, the 15-24 age cohort accounted for 40.9% of all emigrants in 2014 (est) based on the CSO migration estimate figures. The much higher levels of emigration associated with the 15-29 age group over the past few years has notably changed the population composition of the state, based on the CSO figures. The percentage of the state population accounted for by 15-29 year olds has fallen from 23.1% in the 2009 estimates to 18.0% in the 2014 estimates, based on these CSO statistics.

Based on the CSO’s 2014 population estimates, the average population per Dail seat would now stand at 29,175 – with this marking a narrow increase on the 29,040 people per Dail seat level associated with the 2011 Census population figures/2012 Constituency Commission report. On these present population estimates, the smallest number of seats in the Dail that would be permitted by theIrish  Constitution (one TD per maximum of 30,000 people) would be 154, while the largest number of seats in the Dail permitted by the Constitution would be 231 (one TD per maximum of 20,000 people).

An estimated 338,600 people have emigrated from the state since the 2011 General Election. This population figure would be the equivalent of 11.66 Dail seats, based on the fact that there are currently 29,040 people per Dail seat based on the 2011 Census population figures/2012 Constituency Commission report (which reduced the number of total Dail seats from 166 to 158).

The CSO’s 2014 population estimates calculate that EU13/ROW nationals would now account for 8.9% of population (2004 CSO estimate) but EU13/ROW nationals currently account for only 0.2% of City and County Councillors (2 out of 949 – Elena Secas and Edmond Lukusa) following the May local elections. This group also accounted for a relatively small proportion of the total number of local election candidates who contested the May elections.