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Author Archives: Adrian Kavanagh
Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (29th May 2017)
Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2017 There is little more than a week left now until the general election that is scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. What do the latest opinion poll figures … Continue reading
Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (24th May 2017)
Adrian Kavanagh, 24th May 2017 There are just over two weeks to go until the general election that is scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. What do the latest opinion poll figures suggest in … Continue reading
Candidates for the 2020 General Election by Dáil constituency
Adrian Kavanagh (First posted on 19th April 2017). This post will be (and has been) updated as and when new candidates are selected/declared). Any links in this post are to online announcements of candidate selections – there will be no … Continue reading
Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (19th April 2017)
Adrian Kavanagh, 19th April 2017 Following an announcement by Theresa May yesterday and a House of Commons vote to confirm this today, a “snap” general election is now scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. … Continue reading
Census 2016 Definitive Population by Area Figures: What these mean for the 2017 Constituency Commission review
Adrian Kavanagh, 6th April 2017 The final/definitive population by area Census 2016 figures were published earlier today (at 11 am), showing a population level within the state of 4,761,865, marking a notable increase (of 173,613 – 3.8%) on the 4,588,252 population … Continue reading
Posted in Census 2016, Constituency Commission, Election boundaries, Uncategorized
Tagged 2017, Carlow-Kilkenny, Cavan-Monaghan, Census, Clare, Constituency Commission, Donegal, Dublin Central, Dublin Fingal, Dublin North West, Dublin West, Galway East, Galway West, Kildare South, Laois, Limerick City, Limerick County, Mayo, Offaly, Sligo-Leitrim, Tipperary
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“Heading towards a Three-Party System?”: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (2nd March 2017) and other March/April/May polls
Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd March 2017 After a series of poor figures across opinion polls in the earlier months of 2017, this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll brings better news for Fine Gael – offering the party its highest support level across most of … Continue reading
Posted in opinion polls
Tagged Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Green Party, Independents, Labour Party, Sinn Fein, Solidarity-People Before Profit
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Happy New Year for Fianna Fail?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (29th January 2017) and other early 2017 polls
Adrian Kavanagh 2nd February 2017 – with other updates during February 2017 As noted in a previous post, a series of polls in the Autumn/early Winter had pointed to a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail relative to that party’s high … Continue reading
Commentary on Public Submissions to the 2017 Constituency Commission
In July 2016, immediately following after the publication of provisional population by area figures by the Central Statistics Office for the 2016 Census, a new Constituency Commission was set in place to begin the process of redrawing European and general election constituency … Continue reading
Posted in Constituency Commission, Election boundaries
Tagged 2017, boundaries, Constituency Commission
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The Geography of the 2016 USA Presidential Election: Analysing the Republican Party vote
Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-10th January 2017 This article will offer a geographical perspective on the election results at the 2016 USA Presidential election. I have purposely held off on writing this article for the past few weeks, as election results still … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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Festive joy for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael: Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll (8th December 2016)
Adrian Kavanagh, 8th December 2016 After a series of polls in the Autumn/early Winter had pointed to a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail relative to that party’s high support levels in polls during the Summer, this morning’s Ipsos-MRBI poll … Continue reading
Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses 