Category Archives: opinion polls

2014 Local Election seat estimates based on a constituency-level analysis of RTE Exit Polll

Posted on May 24, 2014 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 24 May 2014 This post attempts to ascertain what the different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might for the City and County Council elections on the basis of the RTE Exit Poll support figures, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political … Continue reading →

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Predicting 2014 Local Election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls employing a constituency-level analysis

Posted on July 23, 2013 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 23 July 2013  This post will attempt to ascertain what different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might be following next year’s City and County Council elections on the basis of national support figures associated with recent opinion polls, along … Continue reading →

Posted in Election boundaries, Local Elections 2014, opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Analysing support change in the 2012 US Presidential election: The Sandy/Katrina factor

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th November 2012

Posted in Election boundaries, opinion polls, US elections | 1 Comment

US Presidential Election: Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the election?

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Following his convincing win in last week’s debate, Mitt Romney’s poll resurgence has seen him overtake Barack Obama in the national poll figures over the past few days pushed him into the lead, being 1.5 percentage points ahead of Obama … Continue reading →

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Estimating the US Presidential election: applying national opinion poll levels to the state-level contests

Posted on September 3, 2012 by Adrian Kavanagh

Opinion polls ahead of November’s presidential election contest in the United States of America are pointing to a close contest between Barack Obama and his Republic Party challenger, Mitt Romney, with an averaging out of the most recent polls, following … Continue reading →

Posted in opinion polls, US elections | 1 Comment