Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th February 2015 

The latest in the series of Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion polls brings slightly better news for the government parties but very good news for Sinn Fein, who find themselves estimated to be the political party with the highest support level in the state in yet another opinion poll. By contrast, the Independents and Others political grouping are seen to lose significant ground in this poll. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll): Sinn Fein 26% (up 5%%), Fine Gael 25% (up 3%), Independents and Others 23% (down 9%),  Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 45, Labour Party 1, Independents and Others 33.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th January 2015 

After a series of very poor polls for these parties in the dying months of 2014, the latest Paddy Power-Red C poll (14th January 2014) and the subsequent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (25th January 2015) both pointed towards an improvement in the popularity levels of the government parties. Fine Gael saw a three percentage point gain in the party’s poll levels since the last Red C poll, while there is a two percentage point gain in relation to the Labour Party poll figures. Sinn Fein saw a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, but they still remained as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. There were slight drops in support levels for the Independents and Others grouping and for Fianna Fail. The Paddy Power-Red C poll estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Fine Gael 24% (up 3%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 8% (up 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 29% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 31, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 44. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Fine Gael 24%, Sinn Fein 20%, Fianna Fail 19%, Labour Party 9%, Independents, Green Party and Others 28%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 42. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 20th December 2014 

Tomorrow’s Sunday Business-Red C, Sunday Independent-Millward Brown and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll results largely reflects the figures in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll from earlier this month and indeed most recent polls. Trends in these polls have suggested that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water have fuelled increased support levels for the Independents and Others grouping and Sinn Fein, with these gains being made mainly at the expense of the government parties. The results of these polls will produce perhaps the longest dark night of the soul for Labour, with both poll results showing this party losing a number of percentage points. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Independents and Others 30% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fine Gael 21% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 41, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 44. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Red C poll): Independents and Others 34% (up 10%), Fine Gael 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (down 5%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 2%), Labour Party 5% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 54. The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitiudes  poll): Independents and Others 30% (NC), Fine Gael 24% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 5% (down 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 35, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 48.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th December 2014 

There are obvious winners – the Independents and Others grouping – and losers – the government parties – in today’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll. Recent polls, including the latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (22nd November 2014), were suggesting that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water were politically benefiting the Independents and Others grouping and Sinn Fein at the expense of the government parties but these trends are particularly evident in today’s poll, which sees support levels for the government parties standing at thirty percentage points lower than the level of support won by these parties in the 2011 General Election. The Independents and Others grouping makes a highly significant nine percentage points gain in this poll relative to the previous such Ipsos-MRBI poll to leave it on a much higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties but also leave this grouping’s support levels as standing well above the combined support level for the government parties in this poll. The latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Independents and Others 32% (up 9%), Sinn Fein 22% (down 2%),  Fianna Fail 21% (up 1%), Fine Gael 19% (down 5%), Labour Party 6% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 32, Sinn Fein 36, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 52.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (22nd November 2014) suggests that the political effects of the recent events surrounding Irish Water have acted mainly to the advantage of the Independents and Others grouping and also Sinn Fein, while the government parties experience another drop in their support levels. Fine Gael sees a four percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no change in the Labour Party poll figures. Having edged ahead of Fine Gael in the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, the improvement in Sinn Fein support levels in this poll leaves them tied with Fine Gael as the most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following on the five percentage point gain made by this grouping in the October 24th poll following the by-election wins of early October, the Independents and Others grouping makes a further three percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a much higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Independents and Others 27% (up 1%), Fine Gael 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 35, Labour Party 5, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 45.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd November 2014 

The new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (2nd November 2014), published on the day after large numbers of people take to the streets in protest against water charges, sees Sinn Fein move ahead of Fine Gael. Sinn Fein support levels increase by four percentage points relative to the previous such poll, while combined support levels for the government parties fall by five percentage points and Fianna Fail’s support level drops by one percentage point. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Sinn Fein 26% (up 4%), Fine Gael 22% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 24% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 44, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 35.  Continue reading →