Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd November 2014 

The new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (2nd November 2014), published on the day after large numbers of people take to the streets in protest against water charges, sees Sinn Fein move ahead of Fine Gael. Sinn Fein support levels increase by four percentage points relative to the previous such poll, while combined support levels for the government parties fall by five percentage points and Fianna Fail’s support level drops by one percentage point. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Sinn Fein 26% (up 4%), Fine Gael 22% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 24% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 43, Sinn Fein 44, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 35.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2014 

The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (26th October 2014) suggests that the recent Budget has not amounted to any serious political gains for the government parties, a trend mirrored in the very similar support trends published in the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of the same day. Fine Gael sees a two percentage point drop in the party’s poll levels in the Red C poll, while there is no movement in the Labour Party poll figures. Sinn Fein sees a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, but they still remain as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Following the by-election wins of earlier in the month, the Independents and Others grouping makes a notable five percentage points gain in this poll to leave it on a higher support level than that enjoyed by any of the larger political parties. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 26% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (NC), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 7, Independents and Others 41. (The latest Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (down 5%), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 25% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 8, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 39.) Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th October 2014 

The results of the latest in the series of The Irish Times-Ispos MRBI polls was published today and this has been largely in line with those of the preceding Red C and Millward Brown polls, but this obviously does convey especially good news for Sinn Fein. As the Ispos MRBI polls tend to be decidedly less frequent that those of other polling companies, the changing support trends in this poll might be viewed as being more reflective of the over-riding trends over the past few months (and especially since the Local and European election contests). The latest Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Irish Times-Ispos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 24% (NC), Sinn Fein 24% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 5%), Labour Party 9% (up 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 41, Labour Party 6, Independents and Others 32. Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th September 2014 

Following last week’s Red C poll, the latest in the series of Millward Brown polls has brought mixed fortunes for the government parties. Labour sees a two percentage point increase in the party’s poll levels and Fine Gael yet again maintain their position as the most popular party in the state. But there is no movement in the Fine Gael poll figures (in contrast with last weekend’s poll), while Labour support levels are again well off the levels of increase observed in last month’s Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll and remain below the crucial ten percent support level. Sinn Fein sees a drop in their support levels relative to the last such Sunday-Independent-Millward Brown, but they still remain as the second most popular party in the state based on these poll figures. Fianna Fail fare notably better in this poll than they did in last week’s Red C poll and also see a one percentage point increase in their support levels, while the Independents and Others grouping yet again fare strongly. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll ): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 21% (up 1%), Labour Party 9% (up 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 34, Labour Party 8, Independents and Others 30. Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th September 2014 (still being updated!)

The latest in the series of Red C polls has brought good news especially for Fine Gael and Sinn Fein. While Labour sees a one percentage point increase in the party’s poll levels, this is well off the levels of increase observed in last months’ Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll. There is a notable fall in support levels for the Independents and Others grouping, while Fianna Fail support levels remain unchanged at a disappointing 18% level although that party seems to perform better in actual electoral contests than they have been in opinion polls. The latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll ): Fine Gael 28% (up 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Labour Party 8% (up 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 23% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 37, Labour Party 3, Independents and Others 30. Continue reading →