Author Archives: Adrian Kavanagh

About Adrian Kavanagh

Lecturer at the Maynooth University Department of Geography. Email: adrian.p.kavanagh@mu.ie

Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (19th April 2017)

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th April 2017 Following an announcement by Theresa May yesterday and a House of Commons vote to confirm this today, a “snap” general election is now scheduled to be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8th June 2017. … Continue reading

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Census 2016 Definitive Population by Area Figures: What these mean for the 2017 Constituency Commission review

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th April 2017 The final/definitive population by area Census 2016 figures were published earlier today (at 11 am), showing a population level within the state of 4,761,865, marking a notable increase (of 173,613 – 3.8%) on the 4,588,252 population … Continue reading

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“Heading towards a Three-Party System?”: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (2nd March 2017) and other March/April/May polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd March 2017 After a series of poor figures across opinion polls in the earlier months of 2017, this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll brings better news for Fine Gael – offering the party its highest support level across most of … Continue reading

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Happy New Year for Fianna Fail?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (29th January 2017) and other early 2017 polls

Adrian Kavanagh 2nd February 2017 – with other updates during February 2017 As noted in a previous post, a series of polls in the Autumn/early Winter had pointed to a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail relative to that party’s high … Continue reading

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Commentary on Public Submissions to the 2017 Constituency Commission

In July 2016, immediately following after the publication of provisional population by area figures by the Central Statistics Office for the 2016 Census, a new Constituency Commission was set in place to begin the process of redrawing European and general election constituency … Continue reading

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The Geography of the 2016 USA Presidential Election: Analysing the Republican Party vote

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-10th January 2017  This article will offer a geographical perspective on the election results at the 2016 USA Presidential election. I have purposely held off on writing this article for the past few weeks, as election results still … Continue reading

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Festive joy for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael: Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll (8th December 2016)

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th December 2016 After a series of polls in the Autumn/early Winter had pointed to a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail relative to that party’s high support levels in polls during the Summer, this morning’s Ipsos-MRBI poll … Continue reading

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Back to the Feb-ture?: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (27th November 2016)

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th November 2016 The November 2016 Red C opinion polls shows little in the way of changes in support levels since the previous Red C poll in October. The main change here sees Sinn Fein gaining a further three percentage points in terms of their … Continue reading

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The 2016 US Presidential Election: Disproportionality, Bias and the Electoral College

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th November 2016 – latest update: 8th February 2017 As the dust settles following the conclusion of the 2016 USA Presidential Election campaign, there are two striking patterns, or trends, which point towards the high degree of disproportionality … Continue reading

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AAA-PBP SBB ina Shuí?: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (30th October 2016)

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st November 2016 The latest in series of Red C opinion polls shows little change in support levels for the two largest parties in the wake of the recent Budget, with Fianna Fail support levels dropping by one percentage point, while … Continue reading

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