Author Archives: Adrian Kavanagh

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About Adrian Kavanagh

Lecturer at the Maynooth University Department of Geography. Email: adrian.p.kavanagh@mu.ie

Larger Parties Squeezing Out Smaller Parties and Independents? Constituency-level analysis of Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (19th April) poll and the Summer 2018 polls

Posted on April 19, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th April 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries are now used as the basis for the analysis. The translation of … Continue reading →

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Looking at the February/March 2018 polls: Constituency-level analysis of the 26th March Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and other polls

Posted on March 26, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th March 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, this will be the first set of polls analyses to use the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries as … Continue reading →

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The January polls and the Impact of the Constituency Commission 2017 report changes: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (24th January 2018), Sunday Times- Behaviour & Attitudes (21st January 2018) and Sunday Business Post-Red C (28th January 2018) opinion polls.

Posted on January 26, 2018 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th January 2018 As the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Bill 2017 was officially passed into law just before Christmas 2017, this will be the first polls analyses to use the new Constituency Commission electoral boundaries as the basis … Continue reading →

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“Is There Anything To Be Said For Having A General Election?”: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (7th December 2017)

Posted on December 7, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th December 2017 Following on the general election speculation of recent weeks and a decidedly unpromising Red C poll from the previous weekend, this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll offers very good news for Fine Gael, with this showing Fine Gael on … Continue reading →

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The Empire Strikes Back: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (5th October 2017)

Posted on October 5, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 5th October 2017 The trends evidenced in the most recent other opinion polls are readily apparent in this morning’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, which shows support levels for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (and Sinn Fein) that are notably … Continue reading →

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Flashback: Seat estimates for Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne and Paddy Power-Red C opinion polls, 23rd February 2011

Posted on September 27, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th September 2017 A look back at an old constituency-level poll analysis – this one being the last analyses carried out ahead of the so-called “earthquake” election of 2011. This article was originally posted on what was then … Continue reading →

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Blue Tide Rising? Constituency-level analysis of the September 2017 opinion polls

Posted on September 26, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th September 2017 With the exception of the June Ireland Thinks/Daily Mail opinion poll, Fine Gael did not seem to be experiencing an immediate “Leo-leap” in the polls carried out following the change of party leader some months ago. The … Continue reading →

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Fine Gael experiencing a “Leo-Leap”?: Constituency-level analysis of the Ireland Thinks/Dail Mail opinion poll (26 June 2017) and other Summer 2017 polls

Posted on June 26, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th June 2017 Having experienced a series of poor figures across opinion polls in the earlier months of 2017, the Fine Gael party fortunes did improve somewhat in the polls carried out in March and April. Changes of party … Continue reading →

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Ministerial and Junior Ministerial appointments by constituency (June 2017)

Posted on June 22, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd June 2017 This post will look at ministerial appointments by constituency and by region, following the election of Leo Varadkar as new Taoiseach last week and the subsequent appointment of a new cabinet, including Fine Gael and Independent … Continue reading →

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Predicting Seat Levels in the 2017 UK General Election based on recent Opinion Poll Figures (8th June 2017)

Posted on June 8, 2017 by Adrian Kavanagh

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th June 2017 It’s Election Day in the United Kingdom. What do the final opinion poll figures of the general election campaign suggest in relation to the likely number of seats that each party will win in that contest? … Continue reading →

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