Adrian Kavanagh, 24th April 2014
Reviewing the past three decades of by-election results shows that government parties have tended to fare poorly in by-election contests (although the last two by-elections have been won by government parties), but does certain parties or groupings tend to do especially well/poorly in these? A review of by-election winners since 1980 shows that:
Adrian Kavanagh, 24th April 2014
A high level of successful candidates at the 2009 City and County Council elections went on to be successful at national elections subsequently. This post outlines the candidates who subsequently went on to become members of the Oireachtas at the general elections of 2011 (or subsequent by-elections) and the party and geographical trends relating to these. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd March 2014
Further controversy arose in relations to the new local election boundaries arose at this weekend’s Fianna Fail Ard Fheis, when party leader, Micheal Martin, was alleged to have likened the terms of reference set for the Local Electoral Area Boundary Committee as “the biggest example of gerrymandering or manipulation of electoral areas in 35 years”. Looking at his actual address, it can be seen that Micheal Martin did not actually use the phrase “gerrymandering” in his actual speech, although he did use the actual term in speaking with reporters and the speech itself does refer to the terms of reference for the committee as amounting to the most serious effort to manipulate electoral boundaries since the introduction of independent boundary committees in the wake of the “Tullymander” and the 1977 General Election. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 19th March 2014
If you are a (potential) candidate for the 2014 Local Elections, you will find that all details on how to formally be nominated as a local elections candidate will be provided by your local City/County Council. So the relevant webpage(s) provided on the website of the local City/County Council should be the first stop for all potential/interested local election candidates. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh 4th February 2014
This post will attempt to list all of the City/County Councillors who lost out in local election selection conventions for their respective parties (including those who were subsequently added to the candidate list by their party headquarters after these convention votes). Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 30th January 2014
In the lead up to, and in the immediate aftermath of, the 2011 General Election, I produced a post reviewing the poll toppers in each of the different constituencies at the 2007 General Election and their subsequent fate at the 2011 contest. This found that over half of the TDs who had topped the poll in their constituencies in 2007 subsequently were not holding seats after the 2011 contest: ten of these TDs opted to retire from politics ahead of the general election while a further twelve of these poll-topping TDs lost their seats at this contest.
Figure 1: The fates of the 2007 General Election poll toppers at the 2011 General Election.
Could a similar fate lie in store for those City or County Councillors who topped the poll in their electoral areas at the 2009 City and County Council elections? Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, First posted 28th January 2014 with further updates as new candidate nominations announced
An updated version from the series of my rolling blog posts on local election candidate selections, in which I detail the latest information as to candidate selections relating to the different political parties and groupings and/or candidate declarations (as in the case of the non-party grouping). The rule of thumb here is that I will add party candidates in most cases only after they have been officially selected to run for the party at a selection convention or by some other means of candidate selection.
The post will focus on the candidate selections for the People Before Profit Alliance, now that the level of candidate selections engaged in by this groupings has warranted that this is now allocated a separate post. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, First posted 28th January 2014 with further updates as new candidate nominations are announced
An updated version of my rolling blog posts, in which I detail the latest information as to candidate selections relating to the different political parties and grouping and/or candidate declarations (as in the case of the non-party grouping). The rule of thumb here is that I will add party candidates in most cases only after they have been officially selected to run for the party at a selection convention or by some other means of candidate selection.
The post will focus on the candidate selections for the Anti Austerity Alliance grouping, given that the level of candidate selections engaged in by this grouping has now warranted it being allocated a separate post. This grouping was formally established as a party on 20th February 2014. While most of the candidates in this grouping would appear likely to be first-time candidates, it does also include a number of more experienced candidates, including a number of incumbents (mainly associated (at present) with the Socialist Party). It involves members of the Campaign Against Home & Water Taxes and the Campaign Against Property Taxes and Austerity groupings, while the more experienced members of the alliance would be members of the Socialist Party. The latter group involves four City/County Councillors and two Town/Borough Councillors. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 14th January 2014
As noted in the earlier post on the Fine Gael TDs who lost their seats at the 2002 General Election, former TDs can often decide to contest the following local elections after having lost their seats, in many cases in the hope that this can act as a stepping stone towards rebuilding their national careers although some of these may finish their political careers at the local level. Fine Gael TDs, such as Michael Creed and PJ Sheehan, were able to use victory at the 2004 Local Elections as a stepping stone to regaining their Dail seats at the 2007 General Election, having lost these in the 2002 contest. The 2009 Local Elections were also contested by candidates such as Joe Higgins and Catherine Murphy, who had lost their seats at the 2007 election but would go on to successfully regain their seats at the 2011 contest (Higgins, of course, immediately gave up his Fingal County Council seat as he also won a seat in the European Elections on the same day).
It would be expected that these local elections will be contested by a number of the candidates who lost their Dail seats at the 2011 General Election and this indeed proves to be the case, although there are also some candidates who lost their seats at an earlier general election and did not succeed in regaining these seats at the 2011 contest. At present I account for nineteen candidates in this group (twelve lost their Dail seats at the 2011 contest, while five lost/did not contest their Dail seats at the 2007 election, one lost his seat at the 2002 contest and one lost his seat at the 1997 contest). Tony Dempsey did not actually lose his seat at a general election, but instead decided not to defend his Dail seat in 2007.
Adrian Kavanagh 14th January 2014
This post lists all of the City/County Councillors who are retiring at the May 23rd local elections, or who have indeed retired at an earlier date (and who have by this stage been replaced by a co-option from their party or group). This list does not include those local authority members who retired from the council in order to take up positions in Dail Eireann or Seanad Eireann or the European Parliament. This list also does not include incumbents who contested Local Elections 2014 selection conventions for their political parties and failed to win nominations, even if they announce their retirements after such defeats. Further details on some of the cases listed here can be viewed in the different, regional, posts, listing the current members of the City/County Councils as matched against the new constituency areas, including the posts for the Dublin, (rest of) Leinster, Connacht-Ulster and Munster region. Continue reading
Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses 