Voting patterns and turnout levels in Referendum elections in the Republic of Ireland, 1937-2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th September 2013

After 4th October, there will have been thirty seven different referendum contests held in the history of the state, but some of these contests have taken place on the same date, while the same issue has been the focus of a referendum vote on more than one occasion in a number of instances. The most recent cases include the holding of two referendum votes on the Nice and Lisbon treaties, but the issues of Divorce and the Electoral System (proposals to change the Irish system to a first past the post one) have also been the focus of referendum contests on two, or more, occasions.  In most of these cases, the failure of a referendum proposal relating to a certain issue has been followed by the passing of another, ultimately similar, proposal on that issue in a referendum vote – in some cases taking place little more than a year after the initial vote (the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty referenda) but in other cases taking place roughly a decade later (the referenda on the introduction of Divorce and the proposal to change the electoral system). The 1968 referendum is the only case where the re-running of a referendum vote on an issue has resulted in the defeat of that proposal on a second occasion. Continue reading

Posted in Election data, Electoral Geography (voting maps), Referendum elections, Voter turnout | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

The Fate of Fine Gael’s Unsuccessful 2002 General Election candidates

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2013

In a previous post, as a means of teasing out potential Fianna Fail 2014 Local Elections candidates, I listed the unsuccessful Fianna Fail candidates at the last (2011) general election and noted that there had been 56 of these. The level of losses by Fine Gael at the 2002 General Election – in terms of the numbers of unsuccessful general election candidates, not in terms of levels of lost support – was on a par to this, with 52 of the party’s candidates at that election failing to win seats – 18 of whom were incumbents (one other candidate was the son of an outgoing TD, while three other candidates had been members of Seanad Eireann). A study of what happened in electoral terms to the unsuccessful 2002 Fine Gael candidates might offer some clues as to the political future of the cohort of Fianna Fail’s unsuccessful 2011 General Election candidates. Continue reading

Posted in Candidates | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Review of Submissions to 2013 Review of European Parliament boundaries

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd September 2013

The public submissions phase of the current review of European Parliament election constituency boundaries concluded at 5.00pm last Friday (30th August). In all, 24 submissions were made to the Constituency Commission in relation to this revision of European Election constituencies – a decidedly lower number than the levels of submissions made in relation to reviews of Dail election constituencies and City/County Council election constituencies but an increase on the number of submissions specifically referring to European Parliament constituency boundaries in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundaries.  This post will review the submissions relating to the present (2013) review. Continue reading

Posted in Constituency Commission, Election boundaries, European Elections | Tagged | Leave a comment

My Priorities for Electoral and Political Reform in Ireland

As the adriankavanaghelections.org website nears its 100,000th hit, I have decided to mark the occasion with a post detailing what would be the issues that I would most like to see being prioritised in relation to the areas of electoral and political reform. My approach here is to be as pragmatic as popular and avoid populist and knee-jerk approaches to these issues. Continue reading

Posted in Election boundaries, Gender, Voter turnout, Young candidates | Tagged , , , | 8 Comments

My submission for the European Parliament constituency boundary review

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st August 2013

The process for reviewing Ireland’s European Parliament constituency boundaries has now commenced, following on the loss of one European Parliament seat by the State after Croatia joined the European Union some months ago. The Constituency Commission  is now seeking public submissions in relation to this and the closing date for doing so is quite close – 5pm on Friday 30th August 2013. Information on the process/call for submissions is now online at the Constituency Commission’s official page on the European Elections boundary review: all submissions, in any case, can be emailed to: europarlconstituencies@environ.ie

Notice in press calling for submissions to European Parliament constituency review

Notice in press calling for submissions to European Parliament constituency review

This is the submission I made to the Constituency Commission. This is probably more academic in scope as it does not argue for one particular option, but it just lists and discusses the different options that are open to the Commission. Continue reading

Posted in Census2011 definitive figures, Election boundaries, European Elections | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Predicting 2014 Local Election seat numbers on the basis of national opinion polls employing a constituency-level analysis

Adrian Kavanagh, 23 July 2013 

This post will attempt to ascertain what different political parties/groupings’ seat levels might be following next year’s City and County Council elections on the basis of national support figures associated with recent opinion polls, along the lines of similar analyses on The Irish Political Forum website, which attempts to predict Dáil seat numbers on the basis of such poll figures. Continue reading

Posted in Election boundaries, Local Elections 2014, opinion polls | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

2014 Local Elections candidates for the “Other” political parties/groupings

Adrian Kavanagh, First posted 15th July 2013 with updates as new candidate nominations announced 

The post focuses on the candidate selections for the different parties and groupings that were not running a sufficiently large enough number of candidates to warrant a separate post on this site; parties and others that are often classified under the “Others” grouping. A number of these parties/groupings would be left-wing or anti-austerity parties/groupings. But this page does not exclusively cover these as the aim here is to tie together all the different parties and groupings that are not large enough to warrant their own separate post/page.
Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Candidates Local Elections 2014, local elections, Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , , , , , | 38 Comments

Labour Party Local Area Representatives – and potential local election candidates?

Adrian Kavanagh,  First posted 4th July 2013 with updates as new details included

Just like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the Labour Party too has its own group of Local Area Representatives – mainly unelected party members that act as representatives of the party in their local area, with these areas usually coinciding with parts of the country in which the number of party elected representatives are relatively low (although there are some exceptions as in the cases of Elena Secas in Limerick City and Declan Meenagh in Dublin City. In fairness, the Labour Party website does well in allowing for a listing of these party Local Area Representatives to be created if you check though all of the party constituency pages, but I am not totally convinced that the listing here is an exhaustive one.  Continue reading

Posted in Dublin, local elections, Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Potential Fianna Fail Local Elections 2014 candidates? TDs who lost seats at 2011 General Election and other unsuccessful general election candidates

Adrian Kavanagh, initially posted on 2nd July 2013

With less than eleven months to go until next year’s local elections, the preparations for these have been significantly ramped up following the recent publication of the Local Electoral Area Boundary Committee Report 2013 last month. Earlier I tried to tease out some of Fianna Fail’s list of local election candidates by looking at that party’s Local Area Representative grouping. This post will look at another potential group of local election candidates, namely the former party TDs who lost their seats at the 2011 General Election as well as the other unsuccessful party candidates who contested that election.  Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Election data, Gender, local elections, Young candidates | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Labour Party candidates for the 2014 Local Elections

Adrian Kavanagh, First posted 2nd July 2013 with updates as new candidate nominations announced 

The seventh of my rolling blog posts in which I detailed the latest information as to candidate selections relating to the different political parties and grouping and/or candidate declarations (as in the case of the non-party grouping). As noted before, the rule of thumb here was that I added party candidates only after they have been officially selected to run for the party at a selection convention or by some other means of candidate selection. The post focuses on the Labour Party candidate selections. Continue reading

Posted in Candidates, Candidates Local Elections 2014, local elections, Local Elections 2014 | Tagged , | 8 Comments